Another scary thing happening out there is no ones really spending heaps as can be seen by a surprising build up in cash deposits over loans. But where are all those excess cash deposits going? Read on…
A Record $2 Trillion In Deposits Over Loans – The Fed's Indirect Market Propping Pathway Exposed
So here's an opinion from someone who should know intimately what's happening within the Euro Zone.
I give you….
Saxo Bank CEO Says Euro Is Doomed as Currency Woes Resurface
- “The whole thing is doomed,” Christensen said yesterday in an interview at the bank’s Dubai office. “Right now we’re in one of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn’t at all.”
- “Another possible fallout is getting rid of some of the countries that are being ruined by being in the euro, notably the southern European economies,” Christensen said. “People have been dramatically underestimating the problems the French are going to get from this. Once the French get into a full- scale crisis, it’s over. Even the Germans cannot pay for that one and probably will not.”
Guess where a large portion of Florida's exports go…
If you think I'm pessimistic. I haven't got diddley on this guy and he's one cleva cookie.
Interview with John Williams of Shadowstats
John believes the real unemployment rate is 22%, not 8.1%, which is why it still feels like a recession. He also calculates the CPI at 6%, not 2.8%, and explains how the government manipulates the rate of inflation. Lastly, John believes the US is still on track for hyperinflation in 2014 as we near the coming fiscal cliff.
John received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Formally known as Walter J. Williams, his friends call him John. For nearly 30 years, John has been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.
Hey Freckle, you could write a book on this subject !
What makes you think I haven't
Tell me freckle
Have you been to America or Florida in recent times because if you had you would not been talking like this. Certainly in states like Texas and Florida there are signs everywhere of recovery. Large numbers of people are moving to both Texas and Florida.
Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
http://propertyknowhow.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeWe have just launched a new website join our membership today
The Market is looking up according to Rob (and many other professionals) that lives in Orlando. The area’s housing market in 2013, is on the rise according to a new report by ClearCapital.
Metro Orlando is slated to see home prices go up 3 percent this year, which ranked 26th among the nation’s top 50 markets, said Truckee, Calif.-based ClearCapital’s Home Data Index Market Report. The region in 2012 saw home prices increase 8.6 percent when compared with the previous year and 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, the report said.
Regardless of an UP or DOWN market; if you either know what you are doing or at least have a team that does then risk is manageable. So you have those that complain about everything and then you have those who obtain the education and learn how to maneuver the up and down markets.
Love the feedback.
John-USA-CommercialRE
Email MeHi all,
This thread is ticking along nicely huh?!
John/Rob – sorry I must have missed something when you said "the market is looking up according to Rob". At the risk of sounding rude, Rob who? Are you quoting yourself? Are you Rob or John? And if your name is not John, you may want to fix your username for better transparency on the forum.
Freckle, you can quote and graph to your hearts content. I'm not sure that Rob or Nigel will agree with you.
Will this bring in the 'new money" like money was the new gold. Will they ( not sure who they are..) bring in "credits" now instead of money when the dollar or the Euro devalues so much that it is worthless. Plenty of electronic banking, is this the next step?
Goods for trade will always bring a 'monetary system' whether that is gold, currency or whatever. Survival means that you are selling what others are buying at that point in time.
Whether 'Merica falls over completely remains to be seen. After years of watching I still can't bring myself to invest there, the risk V's reward don't scratch up for me, if I wanted to house working poor in cheap rentals and profit, I'd do that here. The govt is still spending billions on defense than on fixing other huge problems….. Many other no's for me.
Good debate.
D
DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
http://www.homestagers.com.au
Email MeJohn-USA-CommercialRE wrote:Metro Orlando is slated to see home prices go up 3 percent this year, which ranked 26th among the nation’s top 50 markets, said Truckee, Calif.-based ClearCapital’s Home Data Index Market Report. The region in 2012 saw home prices increase 8.6 percent when compared with the previous year and 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, the report said.
.
Hmmm OK well we have a conflict of data then.
The Urban Land Institute's data illustrates a point about industry data. Of the 3 mobs providing data NAR, FHFA and Case Schiller none seem to be consistent with each other.
HOUSE PRICES & HOME-OWNERSHIP
Now to make my point again! Month to month or year to year stats don't mean much too me. They're snapshots. Even trendlines can be misleading if taken out of context. What you guys continue to show is a lack of understanding in what makes these markets tick and where thay are likely to go and most important of all what the risks are.
As I keep on asking and you guys keep on evading the request; show me something tangible that supports your contention that the Florida market is an investable proposition. I don't want to take a bust tour and I don't want to read feel good articles from the local rag.
We provide as much evidence as the great information you put out about the end of the United States. We spend time on the ground and what we are finding is that demand on the ground is increasing. We know that money is becoming easier to get in terms of loans. This has not been the case since 2008
I am not suggesting that there are no problems in the US economy of course there are. However before anyone cast a negative judgment come over and have a look for yourself. Then make an informed decision about whether its worth investing there or not
Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
http://propertyknowhow.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeWe have just launched a new website join our membership today
I've removed several comments as they did not add any value to the thread. It also seemed pointless to me to get personal.
Before posting it's important to consider whether the contribution will be constructive and whether it will be respectful. If not, it's better not to post it.
– Moderator
Nigel Kibel wrote:We provide as much evidence as the great information you put out about the end of the United States.What information?
Still gotta love Florida…
Coming back strong after a post-recession starching, Florida is now growing so quickly that the Sunshine State could soon overtake New York as the nation's third most populous state. According to newly released Census Bureau data, Florida's population hit 19.3 million last summer, while New York came in at 19.6 million. But those figures belie growth rates that could have widespread ramifications — especially for Southwest Florida, which has gained 46,000 new residents since 2006.
Florida's population, fueled by job seekers, foreign immigrants and baby boomer retirees, is growing at a much faster percentage rate than New York's — growth that is likely to continue through 2013. Florida grew by 235,000 people in 2012, but a handful of economists contend 2013 growth will be even higher, as high as 360,000 new residents.
“Florida is getting its economic groove back, We are predicting Florida's population will swell by 360,000 this year. New York, by comparison, is expected to add between 50,000 and 100,000 new net residents.
“We do expect very strong population growth over the next few years, accelerating to over 2 percent, which would be double the national average, by 2014, Between 300,000 and 400,000 new net residents would be considered very strong growth. By comparison, during 2005, the peak of last decade's economic growth, 427,000 people moved to Florida.
John-USA-CommercialRE
Email MeYou guys still don't understand the population dynamics of Florida. You just parrot MSM headlines as if they convey the real story.
The problem with Florida is really America. The US is a disaster zone economically and given the scale of corruption and malfeasance since the GFC it rides within a hairs breath of a repeat of the GFC x 10 at almost any time. As every day passes we edge closer to the cliff as the powers that be try every trick in the book to wriggle out of this financial tar pit they find themselves in.
Florida is a state that ticks along alright in relatively good times but is one of the first to burn when things go wrong. It also tends to burn more than any other state under those circumstances.
- Florida's rate of growth has been declining for decades
- during the GFC people couldn't get out of Florida fast enough
- population inflows tend be low socioeconomic and retirees
- jobs growth is predominantly low paid
For a more comprehensive understanding read the following;
An Analysis of Annual Migration Flows in Florida, 1980 – 2008
Florida has been one of the most
rapidly growing states in the United
States for many years, but growth rates
have fluctuated considerably from one
year to the next. Most of these
fluctuations were caused by changes in
the number of people moving into and
out of the state. I
Percentage growth rates, however, have
been declining steadily, from 44% in the
1970s to 33% in the 1980s, 24% in the
1990s, and a projected 18% between
2000 and 2010
Low, Declining, Polarizing: Job Skill in Florida
ABSTRACT
After removing the effects of local amenities, prices, and local labor supply and demand
shocks, on a wage based measure of skill Florida’s average job just before the Great Recession
was 3% below the nation’s, down from 2% at the beginning of the last decade. Florida mimics
the national pattern of wage and job polarization—the hollowing of the middle of the skill
distribution coupled with strongly rising relative pay for high-skill jobs, slightly rising relative
pay for low-skill jobs, and falling relative pay for mid-skill jobs. In addition, labor force
participation fell more in Florida than in the U.S. over the past 30 years, and this was more
pronounced at low education levels. Simultaneously, real earnings for those with low education
levels fell, but less than in the rest of the nation. Florida is in the midst of a pronounced emptying
of the middle of its job skill distribution in which increasing demand for workers in low-skill
manual non-routine jobs is apparently outpacing increasing demand for high-skill analytical
workers. The agglomeration economies exhibited by high-skill jobs and expected baby boom
retirements are likely to accelerate this process absent aggressive and urgent public investment in
education and infrastructure, which seems unlikely.
This graphic suggests that Florida's high end job market is not performing very well in comparison to other regions. The data suggests that Florida is in fact seeing a decline in the sector. Jacksonville hits a high but only because of a high 12 year average. Overall the trend is in decline. The next best city, Tampa, comes in at 22nd and the remainder are well down.
This is only a part graphic – click to see full version
When the next correction comes holding property in Florida could well cost one their shirt. Florida is the leading edge of the new property bubble.
The following illustrates another dimension that highlights Florida's vulnerability to economic shock.
Poverty in Florida
*Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)
In Florida, there are 2,055,778 families, with 3,885,132 children.
Poor Children: 21% (809,655) of children live in poor families (National: 21%), defined as income below 100% of the federal poverty level.
April 1, 2011
Top 10 Reasons for Central Florida’s Need
Author: Dave Krepcho
1. Food Hardship
A recently released study showed the hardest hit markets for families not being able to afford adequate food. The Orlando area ranked #10 in the nation for food hardship with 23.6% of the population struggling — higher than the State and national averages.
2. Childhood Hunger
Orlando has a higher percentage of children in poverty that are of school age than the rest of Florida or the overall United States. One in six children lives on the brink of hunger in Florida. The number is closer to one in four for Central Florida. Orlando: 23.3% vs. overall U.S.: 17%
3. The Meal Gap
A study released March 2011 shows that Central Florida ranks higher than the national average for a measurement of what percentage of the population is in need of food. This study also measured the Gap in terms of dollars needed to provide missing meals over the course of one year. For Central Florida the gap is $84,548,545.00.
4. Poverty Rate
For Central Florida, there are approximately 400,000 people living in poverty, almost 20% of the population. Just over 100,000 of that population are children.
5. Hunger Study
The Hunger Study for Central Florida measures several indicators every four years on the hunger landscape. One key measurement is the number of different people receiving help through our feeding programs. In 2004 the number of people was 298,000. When measured in 2009, it grew to 732,000 people….a 152% increase. This increase outpaces most parts of the country. Florida ranks #1 in Nation for increase in households struggling with hunger . Increase from 2004-2006 period of 8.9% to 14.2 % for 2007-2009.
6. 211 Calls
The number of 211 calls for help in Central Florida increased by 43% from 2009 to 2010. The increase continues in 2011. Food assistance is one of the top three requests.
7. Food Stamp (SNAP) Usage
SNAP usage has increased in Central Florida by 32.8% vs. the State average of 20.8% from 2009 – 2010. One in six Floridians use Food Stamps. There was a 113% increase in Florida from 2007 -2009 in the number of people who lived in households that had no other cash income other than Food Stamps.
8. Unemployment
U.S = 8.9% rate vs. Metro Orlando = 10.8%. Surrounding Counties in Central Florida have a rate as high as 12%.
9. Under- Employment
Florida ranks fifth in the nation as a percentage of people that are considered under-employed…. ranging from 21% – 24.9% . While we do not have Central Florida data, we believe this range fits or may be understated due to the heavy tourism base and the tens of thousands of low paying jobs related to that industry.
10. The Perfect Storm
All of the previous nine key indicators add up to a perfect storm of a dire situation. This data paints the picture of Central Florida’s dubious distinction as a geographic area in great need. When compared to other markets across the country, Central Florida, unfortunately, stands out as an area of higher need.
Florida’s Long Term Economic Trajectory Emerging from the Great Recession
Bureau of Economic and Business Research
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences
University of Florida
- the housing boom temporarily masked what has otherwise been a two decade long downward trend in the underlying determinants of Florida’s relative income and GDP per capita.
Hey Freckle; where do suggest to invest? You make yourself out to be such an authority on everywhere in the world..I would love to see your personal track record to verify what you can do.
Since I live and work and assist thousands of people with commercial investments I qualify to be a far better speaker to this market than you my friend. I personally have closed $13 million in commercial sales alone the 1rst quarter of 2013. As an agent, broker, and soon to be real estate instructor I will take my chances with NOT listening to people like you. You must have tons of time on your hands; is this your real job?
John-USA-CommercialRE
Email MeI would be interested to see where Freckle invests, I am sure its risk free… maybe money in a high interest account?
John-USA-CommercialRE wrote:Hey Freckle; where do suggest to invest? You make yourself out to be such an authority on everywhere in the world..I would love to see your personal track record to verify what you can do.Since I live and work and assist thousands of people with commercial investments I qualify to be a far better speaker to this market than you my friend. I personally have closed $13 million in commercial sales alone the 1rst quarter of 2013. As an agent, broker, and soon to be real estate instructor I will take my chances with NOT listening to people like you. You must have tons of time on your hands; is this your real job?
The difference between myself and you is that you express an industry biased opinion and look to minimise the risk while extrapolating the benefits.The problem is that with a pecuniary interest in the outcome the information you look to promote has to be viewed with a critical eye. It wouldn't be so bad if you could actually display some examples of in-depth understanding of underlying fundamentals but to date your response has been to attack the messenger not the message.
My posts look to expose the risks and challenge the assumptions many pro US property spruikers publish in support of the notion that the US market is a sort of once in a lifetime opportunity and one should jump in boots and all before it dries up.
There are opportunities to invest in any asset class in any market at any time. To do that successfully requires understanding the risks not ignoring them while focusing on the potential upside.
Your the upside guy and I'm the downside guy on this thread. I try to keep opinion to a minimum and concentrate on providing fact. Feel free to challenge either. I'm always up for a good intelligent discussion. If you want to throw stones or get into mines-bigger-than-yours then I've got better things to do.
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