When you see the insiders heading for the exits does that mean there's a fire. This has been accelerating through 2012. Watch the markets.
[image no longer available]
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-11/what-do-they-know-we-don%E2%80%99t
- Google announced that Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt would sell 3.2 million of his Google shares in 2013, 42% of the 7.6 million shares he owned at the end of last year—after having already sold 1.8 million shares in 2012. But why would he sell 5 million shares, about 53% of his holdings, with Google stock trading near its all-time high?
- Mr. Schmidt isn’t alone. Corporate insiders were “aggressively selling their shares,” reported Mark Hulbert. And they were doing so “at an alarming pace.” The buy sell-to-buy ratio had risen to 9.2-to-1; insiders had sold over 9 times as many shares as they’d bought. They’d been aggressive sellers for weeks. That they dumped shares in December, when the sell-to-buy ratio was 8.38-to-1, could have been the result of the fiscal-cliff theatrics, but the latest sell-to-buy ratio was even worse.
Instantly, soothing voices were heard: “don’t be alarmed,” they said. But Mr. Schmidt and his colleagues at the top of corporate America, multi-billionaires many of them, are immensely well connected, not only to each other but also to the Fed, whose twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks they own and control.
Interesting.
So if they are selling Google near it's all time high, then it will come down again. Common sense.
If they are selling Google, what are they buying? Are they buying anything? Gold, more shares, USA commercial property, oil?
It's pretty unlikely they will let the cash sit in the bank….. especially if they are the financial elite as your last paragraph implies.
D
DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
http://www.homestagers.com.au
Email MeThis is why. S&P is in a Fed fueled bubble. The pattern is pretty obvious. The writing is on the wall as they say.
DWolfe wrote:IAre they buying anything?Anything that will retain value in a market correction.
Quote:It's pretty unlikely they will let the cash sit in the bank….. especially if they are the financial elite as your last paragraph implies.D
Why not. The Fed underwrites the TBTF banks and the US$ may even rally in a crash. When the dust settles they buy back in.
Well I'm no expert, but, the logical thing to do when expecting your stock to fall would be to short the stock. Essentially 'betting the other way' to what you are expecting when you buy stock… No sense keeping it in cash or simply 'retaining value' when there are significant gains to be made with the miraculous multiplier they call 'leverage'.
old mate might have trouble doing that as he could be accused of insider trading, but I am sure there is a smart and legal way to get around that.
That is assuming you expect the currency to survive at all. But that's a conversation for my shiny hat.
grimnar wrote:No sense keeping it in cashYes there is. The expectation is a market crash/correction not simply an equities/individual stock or class of stocks. The contagion could spread to bonds, derivatives options etc. Cash and or treasuries would be seen as safe in that context even with negative returns.
These moves are about conservation and preservation of wealth. He who looses the least wins.
Some of the experts believe there will be a big correction. That's why I believe property is a better and safer investment. If shares do fall people may put more money into property again.
Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
http://propertyknowhow.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeWe have just launched a new website join our membership today
In uncertain times like this I'd say property all the way…
Nigel Kibel wrote:Some of the experts believe there will be a big correction. That's why I believe property is a better and safer investment.Only if you're not leveraged.
Quote:If shares do fall people may put more money into property again.The vast majority of potential buyers are middle class and above. They got smashed in the last GFC.
-
Half of $1m plus investors report GFC losses of up to 30%.
Australia’s wealthy have endured significant losses following the GFC with around half reporting a loss in assets of up to 30%, pushing nearly one quarter of investors out of the $1m + asset bracket.
- there has been significant growth in the number of high net worth individuals leaning towards ultra-conservative investment decisions with around 43% registering as risk averse in 2009 compared with 11.5% in 2007.
- Currently more than half (51.3%) of HNW individuals see cash and cash-like assets as the best investment option, with property, Australian shares and International shares ranking behind
Property prices have been mostly flat since Dec09. There's no real evidence money fled to property for safety. The GFC property price reaction (muted) may lead to a false sense of security for those looking at property as a safe haven investment if the share market corrects significantly. If the markets correct there is no resource boom to back-stop the Australian economy this time around. I would expect to see serious problems evolve within the Australian property market on all fronts.
Sure, I was being mildly sarcastic about the trader mentality.
Even still, if the entire market is dropping like a rock those shorting will increase, those holding will decrease, and those who are not participating such as by holding cash or treasuries will simply retain their value… Subject to variables such as rate vs inflation, etc.
there would be more to be made from shorting the stock. But that (shorting) certainly carries more risk.
Again though, value at the end of the mayhem purely depends on whether or not your currency still holds a value. Market crash resulting from currency collapse would be a total reset!
vagirl2012 wrote:In uncertain times like this I'd say property all the way…The property investor sector could be decimated given that the vast majority are leveraged to the gills. A 20% move in property could push 60% or more into negative equity.
A property correction accompanied by a AU$ fall would see a massive rise in inflation. RBA would have little option but to raise interest rates.
Double wammy..
grimnar wrote:Again though, value at the end of the mayhem purely depends on whether or not your currency still holds a value. Market crash resulting from currency collapse would be a total reset!
I can't get my head around a total currency collapse model at the moment. CB's are largely acting in concert albeit trying to work around their respective political masters who in Japan's case want to actually hold the reins (heaven forbid) The political muppets scare me more than the banksters.
My instincts tell me that currencies will be destroyed after a reset. I tend to think it will look like an immediate post GFC08 kinda environment but without the stability fixes they employed then (or nothing that works for any length of time). Sovereign defaults could look ugly and I think the bogeyman is going to be derivatives but a 1000 x worse than last time.
Japanese Bonds… they're a gonna fursure.
A little OT but look out for inflation.
The charts below show recent movements in international benchmark prices relevant to the price of petrol and diesel in Australia. These market prices include the Singapore price of petrol (MOPS95 Petrol) and diesel (Gasoil 10ppm sulfur) and the market prices for Tapis and Dated Brent Crude Oil.
I wouldn’t say property all the way. I know more people that have lost money in property then gained.
If these guys hold cash i think a large portion of it will be in overseas currencies. Borrowing a phrase I heard recently "Holding $US Gov Bonds is a return free risk" and bank deposits or other types of bonds are no different. Low interest rates and an almost certain increase in inflation (some argue it is already happening and is being hidden by Gov manipulation of the way inflation is calculated) does not provide an attractive environment for holding cash.
On US property, I think people who leverage in and can lock in current low rates will possibly do well because inflation will rk in their favour.
Are we talking Australian property now Freckle? If so that comment is way out, only about half the houses in Australia have a mortgage against them at all, I've got no doubt that we are in the midst of a property bubble, but it's been created by the way the Gov manages the economy, I don't think they are going to change much so property should stay overvalued. I also think if property did get smashed the RBA would intervene by dropping interest rates, regardless of inflation.
The reference is to property investors specifically not your mom and pop home owner.
I think the real problem will be first home owners in the mortgage belt rather than investor's, reference what happened in areas like Melton when the financial crisis hit. Those investors who rely on refinances to enable them to maintain their portfolio's rather than cash flow will certainly have issues, but a large portion of those were shaken out last time around. I'm no bull, and I've sold a a lot of property the last couple of years but I'm also staying invested, just at a level that is very easy to manage.
How anyone can think things will end well when you see charts like this is beyond me. Cognitive dissonance doesn't even begin to describe that take on things.
Look at Gold and energy – wow!!
(click for larger graphic)
I assume that is in $US, in which case you need to take into account relative exchange rates if you are viewing it from an Australian perspective. The graph does indicate the reality of what is going on over there in terms of inflation.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
