All Topics / Overseas Deals / Foreclosures – will we actually see another drop

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  • Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    I just wanted to add this somewhere and then read your entry Feckle and laughed my very little derriere off but this is apt…

    Surplus… [email protected]#$ No chance… sorry, when, as still semi Alaskan I read that the Alaska Permanent Fund is investing 400 mill into the foreclosed housing market, Warren B is advocate and they are bundling by the thousands…

    Sorry kiddies, the world is on the bandwagon and the US gate keepers to UBER wealth are buying…. bulk buyers… give up… individuals, leap – retail buyers will out bid professionals but by gosh, if your market is marked up by hyper inflated repair bills on top of repairs? IE the Demetrius Mathis’ of the world – your days are numbered… the big guns are in now..

    Still BLOODY funny feckle.

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    I just wanted to add this somewhere and then read your entry Feckle and laughed my very little derriere off but this is apt…

    Surplus… [email protected]#$ No chance… sorry, when, as still semi Alaskan I read that the Alaska Permanent Fund is investing 400 mill into the foreclosed housing market, Warren B is advocate and they are bundling by the thousands…

    Sorry kiddies, the world is on the bandwagon and the US gate keepers to UBER wealth are buying…. bulk buyers… give up… individuals, leap – retail buyers will out bid professionals but by gosh, if your market is marked up by hyper inflated repair bills on top of repairs? IE the Demetrius Mathis’ of the world – your days are numbered… the big guns are in now..

    Still BLOODY funny feckle.

    Profile photo of naughtyjnaughtyj
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    jayhinrichs wrote:
    DO You not have any foreclosures in OZ??? Does every single borrower pay as agreed, does no one get divorced? Or die Intestate???

    JLH

    I’d argue the primary reason we don’t have anywhere near the levels of foreclosures as the US (and likely never will) is that our loans are recourse loans whereas US ones are primarily non-recourse.

    In Australia, the borrower has a HUGE incentive to muddle through the downturn and not walk away from the loan as they are responsible for any and all costs associated with the loss in equity. They can’t just hand the keys back and not expect to be pursued for the outstanding loan.

    Even with divorce, it’s still in the interests of both parties that the house is not sold for a loss as both parties to the divorce will still carry liability forward (and it’s likely that one party will keep the house even though they might have negative equity at the time of the divorce).

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    Naughtyj…. ZERO question – in the US – no harm no foul on a primary residence… off you go, default away and 2-3 years later, with a bankruptcy AND a foreclosure you are right as rain to get a BRAND NEW FHA LOAN AT 4%!!! YAY!!!!

    In Oz… get real… no chance you can walk away

    However, dear US investors PLEASE be aware that the start of this plummet was 2009… so yes dear friends…

    YOU ARE NOW COMPETING AGAINST ( OR SOON WILL BE ) ALL THOSE STRATEGIC DEFAULTERS who have in the interim, lived with Mummy and Daddy, pooled their money, followed their attorneys advice and are starting all over as brand new borrowers with 20% down…

    Aaaaah,,,,, oh don't we wish in Oz all that was possible.. I mean, why pay a 500k mortgage if you could just walk away and 3 years later start up again if the asset didn't quite improve to the extent you had hoped for..

    Profile photo of worldinvestorworldinvestor
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    If you can not pay your creditors, ie banks in Oz and as mentioned "bankruptcy", credit rating will be shot and no lender will touch you in Oz. I believe it takes 7 years for or more for this to be removed from your credit file.

    Profile photo of worldinvestorworldinvestor
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    emma171 wrote:
    I just wanted to add this somewhere and then read your entry Feckle and laughed my very little derriere off but this is apt… Surplus… [email protected]#$ No chance… sorry, when, as still semi Alaskan I read that the Alaska Permanent Fund is investing 400 mill into the foreclosed housing market, Warren B is advocate and they are bundling by the thousands… Sorry kiddies, the world is on the bandwagon and the US gate keepers to UBER wealth are buying…. bulk buyers… give up… individuals, leap – retail buyers will out bid professionals but by gosh, if your market is marked up by hyper inflated repair bills on top of repairs? IE the Demetrius Mathis' of the world – your days are numbered… the big guns are in now.. Still BLOODY funny feckle.

    I started this post on 5 April, did not expect things to change so quickly.
     

    So what happens over the next 12 months will be very interesting.

    What I can see has happened recently is:

    Aus$ is falling.
    RBA wil be meeting next week, if interest rates fall which seems highly likely we could see the Aus$ continue to slip/slide.

    Houses in Atlanta that I was purchasing at $35K-50K are now selling somewhere around $60-70K.

    If banks continue to drip feed foreclosures this will add pressure and prices may continue to rise.

    Will Oz investors pull back if the Aus $ falls back to 90c as this will erode the yields???

    One thing for sure if you timed it correctly you can certainly make money bringing back the US $.

    Lots of fun at the moment

    Cheers, WI

    Profile photo of naughtyjnaughtyj
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    emma171 wrote:
    Naughtyj…. ZERO question – in the US – no harm no foul on a primary residence… off you go, default away and 2-3 years later, with a bankruptcy AND a foreclosure you are right as rain to get a BRAND NEW FHA LOAN AT 4%!!! YAY!!!!

    In Oz… get real… no chance you can walk away

    However, dear US investors PLEASE be aware that the start of this plummet was 2009… so yes dear friends…

    YOU ARE NOW COMPETING AGAINST ( OR SOON WILL BE ) ALL THOSE STRATEGIC DEFAULTERS who have in the interim, lived with Mummy and Daddy, pooled their money, followed their attorneys advice and are starting all over as brand new borrowers with 20% down…

    Aaaaah,,,,, oh don't we wish in Oz all that was possible.. I mean, why pay a 500k mortgage if you could just walk away and 3 years later start up again if the asset didn't quite improve to the extent you had hoped for..

    Exactly. A friend of mine told me how some people he knew bought a place in Florida for around $200,000 (investing $50,000 and borrowing $150,000) and each and every year kept getting it revalued and drawing out the maximum the bank would allow.

    After years of rising values (and generous valuations and constant equity withdrawals), they had a property valued at $800,000 with $700,000 owing (I think they’d invested the $500,000 equity they’d saved over the years up in the share market).

    At a strategic time, they handed the keys back to the bank and walked away from their $100,000 equity in the property (AND the debt).

    What did they do with their $500,000? Bought another (bigger) house outright – with no loan.

    His comment was that at the time they did this, this was legal (albeit very unethical and IMO pretty dumb for the bank to let them keep pulling out equity of the home when they could walk away at any time).

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    WHOA WHOA,,,,,,

    Not so easy my friends in OZ,,,, this is some misleading info and not all together true as a whole for the US.. Let me explain a little in detail.

    1. Walking away from a Mortgage handing in the keys:
         a. There are only 12 states in the US that this is legal, and these are whats called purchase money states. And walking away from a mortgage can only be done on homes where said loan mortgage deed of trust what ever debt intrument was used was the debt instrument that was created at the time of the ORIGINAL purchase of the homes ERGO "Purchase Money Deed of Trust"

            Off the top of my head WA< OR> CA>AZ>NV come to mind as states you can legally do this…and as I said there are 8 others.

    2. The balance of the states have the rigth to come after you just like they do in OZ for any loss's.. NOw because we have had millions of foreclosures this rarely happens except in a few states.. One of those states being Texas,, just google foreclosure deficiancies in Texas and you will see many articles about how Texas lenders will hound and persue deficiancies.
    These are called DUAL ACTION states. the foreclosure is a Dual action it allows possession of the property and a money judgement. Sometimes in a two step process.

    3. In dual action states where I personally forclosed on one of my borrowers if I thought they had money I invoked the second action which is a simple court action showing property worth X loan of Y and debtor owes me 100k… Slam of the gavel and I have a 100k judgement,, that in most cases is not worth much more than toilet paper,,, But what I do with them is they last 10 years I never try to collect straight away… I will hold this judgement for 9 years then chase the people down and swoop in and garnish their wages attach their accounts etc etc. In the first 5 years these debtors are pretty smart they will not have anything in their name then as things get out of site out of mind they start to open accounts get back to work.. So the next time we shake hands is usually when I just cleaned out their bank accounts down to zero and they are freaking out, because they can't make any payments and all very legal on my end…. At that point we have a come to Jesus meeting I give them back some cash so they can continue on in their lives and they start paying me monthly,,, Unless they go underground again,,, I can then rerecord my judgement and its good for another 10 years..  We do this with dead beat tenants as well… I have a couple companies that specialize in these collections I will sell these judgements off for 20 cents on the dollar or little less.

    4. The other nasty surpise some of the folks are going to get, ( and there was a moritorium on this for the last few years but thas being lifted and it does not apply to non owner occuppied loans)  Banks will send whats called a 1099C… discharge of debt tot eh debtor and IRS… So for whatever big loss the bank took they are writing off the loss off their tax's and the 1099C comes to the person who walked away as ORDINARY INCOME.. the only way a debtor gets out of this is at the time they reicieve the 1099 they can prove they are insolvent.. IE by going through BK proceedings or filling out another IRS specific code which the number escapes me this morning.

    So yes in theory people can and do walk away but in certain states your targeted and will be treated just like its apparnat they do in OZ…..

    So for the purchase money states CA NV AZ,  you can see why there have been so many stratigics, it was totally legal with no repercussions but its not that way nationwide.

    As for those of you who are using vendor financing in every state in the Union you can be sued on the Note for the defaulting amount and reicieve a Judgement against the signer of the note and If these people selling on vendor financing are getting you to sign personally,,, which I always do… then you can end up with a personal judgement.

    Does this judgement mean much to you sitting in OZ,,, probably not… Although there are Law firms in the states and one of my buddies at my country club actually has a practice that this is all he does is chase non soverign money judgements to what ever country the debtor may reside…

    In practice at the dollar amounts you folks are buying at I think the dollars are too low for anyone to expend energy to chase you,,, but if you had a bunch of these or 200 to 1 million or more of debt and judgement against you I think you could be looking at someone pursuing those dollar amounts if they thought they had anything they could attach.

    Hope that clears this up…

    Also on the guy that continually refied those were all second loans he will have 1099C debt releif issues for sure. but as screwed up as the banks are he may or may not get the 1099C…. depends on lender.

    JLH

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    Yes… Jay – you point out some very very good points…..  I should have kept it specific to an NV discussion… WI – yes it IS amazing how quickly the market changes….. but we will all soon be on phase two and playing all the different nuances…. or sitting back and keeping the $$ rolling in..

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Emma,

    stratigic default only applies to OWNER occuppied loans at the time of Purchase of the OWNER occuppied home… If someone bought a home in any state for a rental the Purchase Money clause has no power of law.. and a bank can sue on the note and go for a deficniency.

    Just like any junior lender who is wiped out in foreclosure can come back and sue on the note as a wiped out Junior this is starting to happen all over the place..

    YOu have investors buying these wiped out juniors for 1 Cents on the dollar triaging them to see if debtor has any assets. and starting to sue these people to collect…. The only releif from these types of litigation is a full chapter 7 bankruptcy… This is why BK attornies tell you to list everyone and everything you may have come into contact with financially so no one can chase you at a later date.

    There is an art to chasing bad debt… the key being to not put to much pressure on in the beginning get your judgements.. then be patient let them restablish this is exactly what the IRS does. Also how bad credit card debt is handled bought and sold.

    As for prices:  that is one question my clients ask how long can you keep buying at these prices that make your fully managed model work. My answer has been depending on market 1 to 5 years and some markets forever.

    Metro Atlanta pops back to a 90 to 120k market ( which is were is should be) then guess what I am a seller, we have all made a nice return.. And my investors never had to  do one thing other than wire in their purchase funds and check there account every month to make sure the exact same payment each and every month has been deposited on the 15th… In almost all cases my clients will have never travelled to see the property they hold the mortgage over or even care too.  This true sit at home and collect money saves them thousands upon thousands in travel fee's time stress dealing with managers all the other bull pucky that owners go through,,, "you just leave the driving to us"  to the young USA guys on this site they may not recognize that tag line and the Ozzie's may not either… It was Greyhound buses tag line for many years….Sit back relax and leave the driving to US.

    so Like I stated for all those that could decipher a good deal when they saw it vis a vi quality of neighborhood construction tenant price to rental ratio and invested in the US over the last 24 months your going to be very happy,  Those that got spruieked well nothing we can do for those bad investments as  bad investments are simply bad investments anywhere in the world.

    Just Brain Storming here but if I had a Portfolio like WI;s here is what I would do.  AS she admitted she has about 600k invested in Metro Atlanta and works it like a small business and is doing well because she is diligent to the extreme and has the time and energy and know how to stay on top of things  ( this is a big deal a lot of folks are caught up in their jobs daily lives and just do not have the time or inclination to stay right on top of things) and being a day in time away and as  such its a huge deal in my mind. Not much control you can exercise from the other side of the world….

    Anywho..

    If the market recovers like we all hope its going too, it will  top out in metro Atlanta at about 90 to maybe 140 for the assets of the kind that we have bought and what I see posted by WI… The reason they will stop there is there is huge amounts of buildable lots that have been bought by builders in these areas for basically nothing  1 to 5k per lot  shovel ready, I know I have bought a bunch ( in preperation for opening our vertical construction arm in 2015.

    So contruction cost in the South are very low… These homes are built with the absolute cheapest materials and finishes you can buy in the US… And these guys build them QUICK 60 to 90 days  highly effiecent.. And building permits are very low. Here in Oregon my average building permit is 35k for instance,,, parts of CA double that.

    So these builders are going to be able to come in and build for 50 to 60 dollars a foot the same homes that  WI and my company own…I know they can do this because I build in Oregon for 55 to 60 per Sq Ft. better quality than Atlanta  right now today,  but does not include permit or land…. I pay 50 to 100k for lots in my market today down from 100 to 200k…..

    So you got the big production builders sitting on 100's of lots if not thousands… Little to no dirt cost.. And they will slam up 1500 foot houses for 75 to 90k all in and market them at 109 to 149k…  You are seeing this today in this market. I bought a few in one sub last december where I bought the foreclosures at the mid 40's mark and the exact same floor plans of new constructin there were 9 being built were 99 to 119k…

    So yes WI in my mind has analysed the cost to replace ratios and so have we and others and I think we are all going to do very well… Others like the one poster who bought 4 from TRR and 2 were not performing will not do as well, because  they will have a hard time ever getting out of the negative gear situation they got into year one if they are realistic about rolling losses forward.. but I think if they bought in the right spots they will recoup their capital and some equity.

    On to my suggestion and what My personal exit stratigy would be.

    I would stratigically sell off taking my profits,,, And with those profits I would move into the next higher asset class that is much easier to manage than single families… I would be looking at rolling into Class A multi,,, be it apartments or Mobile home parks on the west coast. And or industrial work storage type facilities, you know the ones were the carpet people need storage and have an office in the front… These are super easy to manage and need very little maintenance as oppossed to  single families.

    I would look to take my profit and generate 8% on it, in a perfect world I would be able to roll these up in one big escrow and 1031 tax deffered exchange… Lock in long term debt at good rates on the class A multi. My 8% cash on Cash would generate some pretty nice cash flow depending on the size of the portfolio we end up with over the next 5 years. we just surpassed 130 doors June 1… And looking for another 200 this year… So if we can keep cherry picking them, have our great partners on the ground we end up with a pretty happy crew… Investor client that gets long term predictable cash flow with never a bad day,,,My partners are earning equity instead of flipping houses ( and kicking themselves in the rear years down the line for selling away the best deals in the last 30 years) and my self being the mad scientist putting this all together and watching my team work… Its a lot of fun I can tell you from my side… Its truly a win win for all parties no one is running away with the lions share of profits and we ALL stay in the deal… This is what any institutional and or bigger player is always looking for when we do our larger deals. They want to know how we are staying in till the end and that we get paid when they get paid.

    its really only this house flipping scenerio that investors are fine with who ever is selling them a house to make profit and have no trailing risk…

    JLH

    Anyway brainstorming over….

    I suppose with the OZ investor it would be just cash out come home say hey aint it great and buy CD's at 5% which if we had 5 to 7% CD's I would be doing the same thing.

    JLH

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    Lol…. Yes, we know that … But it lends itself better to boom bust scenarios…. Fascinating to watch!

    With you….Mine is successive 1031’s to an eventual OO property worth billions….Beach front …

    Don’t know th answer but I suppose foreigners can’t do 1031’s then… ??

    Profile photo of cindyandersoncindyanderson
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     As most people are aware, real estate in the United States went into a pretty steep decline and home values are anemic, to say the least. There are at least 10,000 homes for sale for only $10,000 or close to it nationwide. Indeed, beware of its missing parts because though it's sold at a very low price there are still things that of course need to be fix or repairs.You may read further at: Homes for $10K available nationwide .

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    lol…….a 10k house needing work?? Not move in ready???? Say it isn't so!

    Profile photo of Alex SCAlex SC
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    emma171 wrote:
    lol…….a 10k house needing work?? Not move in ready???? Say it isn't so!

    Here is what a $10k house looks like in SC

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/528-Walnut-St-Rock-Hill-SC-29730/2132567626_zpid/

    Now I did pay $9900 for it. Have not closed , but borrowing from LA cash lender $32k . Rehab 15k _ 18k  to do it correctly.

    FMR $650 but less then 3 minutes from my office .

    Move in ready no, cheap yes….

    Profile photo of emma171emma171
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    LMAO….. aaah, yes, we have them all – only a mother could love (okay, being sexist….a father could love too)…..

    I will stick to my move in ready 15k no HOA townhomes that will rent for $700 a month in ATL…….heck, actually, was just extolling my old dry cabins (no water or electricity) in Alaska that rent for $500 a month to hippie Uni students….

    Oh, sorry for the delay, I was just trying to learn the banjo so that I can come and sit on the porch…. gotta love our little project children.

    LOVE IT!

    Profile photo of Alex SCAlex SC
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    emma171 wrote:
    LMAO….. aaah, yes, we have them all – only a mother could love (okay, being sexist….a father could love too)…..

    I will stick to my move in ready 15k no HOA townhomes that will rent for $700 a month in ATL…….heck, actually, was just extolling my old dry cabins (no water or electricity) in Alaska that rent for $500 a month to hippie Uni students….

    Oh, sorry for the delay, I was just trying to learn the banjo so that I can come and sit on the porch…. gotta love our little project children.

    LOVE IT!

    Yes Atlanta that is why we jumping in that market .At the time was picking up town homes 22k  rent ready. Got to love Atlanta just was to hard to be their and Charlotte .

    Okay I think I might have you on this next deal. I  just picked up a 2 bd 1 bath cute little home for $13,500 from the walk around
    outside about 6 30 last night) that's  the part I love hunting down houses.  Then I had to convince my wife, for me to use my IRA and buy. These are the types of deals I just keep. At the end of the day maybe 16k total investment.

    Rental is $550 to $600 their I will go $475 get the city to help find some one for me.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Alex SC wrote:
    …just picked up a 2 bd 1 bath cute little home for $13,500 from the walk around
    outside about 6 30 last night) that's  the part I love hunting down houses…

    There ya have it, ladies and gents, and this is exactly why these local teams and middle men ARE a good idea (when they're the good kind, that is, you still need to DD), no matter where you buy and how far away you are.

    The best opportunities can only be found, sourced and profitably managed by the "boots on the ground" guys – but they're there for anyone to invest in, no matter where in the world those investors may be, if they get those guys on their team.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Alex SCAlex SC
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    zmagen wrote:
    Alex SC wrote:
    …just picked up a 2 bd 1 bath cute little home for $13,500 from the walk around
    outside about 6 30 last night) that's  the part I love hunting down houses…

    There ya have it, ladies and gents, and this is exactly why these local teams and middle men ARE a good idea (when they're the good kind, that is, you still need to DD), no matter where you buy and how far away you are.

    The best opportunities can only be found, sourced and profitably managed by the "boots on the ground" guys – but they're there for anyone to invest in, no matter where in the world those investors may be, if they get those guys on their team.

    Zig leaving Monday for Malaysia then Singapore. The local Rock Hill SC market my office sits in the middle of the area. Now Charlotte NC , the best thing for my real estate partner and I is to drive around looking for homes. This is the one part of the Job, that I think Emma and I will agree 100 % is the most Fun. Now people Like Jay and others ( bigger companies ) they don't do the drive and look at  things any more( they have teams like me  to do this). . To be honest this is the part of the business I love the most .

    Guess if I was panning for gold this is similar to what we do.  Looking some times 50 to 60 houses a week. To me this really is the part that some love and some hate. To be in this business, it is a must to be out looking for homes not just relying on agents to send over listing.

    At the end of the day my best deals have been found by beating the pavement not sitting behind a desk. The best part of this only requirements are a pair of shorts, tank top  , note pad , good solid flash light , ( I don't even put on shoes for my trips through homes )

    Simple is Simple

    mattnz
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    Jay, what do you think the $1k lots of land are likely to be worth in 5 years? Will they still be $1k or could they be $10-20k?

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Location location and then location will determine future values.

    from what I have seen in the last year what AU. investors have bought IE super cheap ghetto cash flow homes that will never be cash flow and will only be money pits.

    I think the lots are a nice alternative…. NO cash flow but hey you can buy 5 to 10 of them for 20k or less.

    No management issues short of maybe mowing the lawns 2 times a year.. and or keep people from dumping rubbish on them.

    but make no mistake there are literrally millions of lots in the US at this price that will never be worth anything other than to a slick marketing type company

    IE many parts of florida and high deserts of CA. New Mexico,,, AZ….

    What I personally bought was 7 lots in Henry county GA,,, in a subdivision that is 3/4 built out and the homes sold for 350 to 425 in their peak… So those familar with this market know these are really nice homes.. they are now selling in the mid 2’s..

    I paid 4500 per lot…. these lots sold in the peak at 60 to 80 k they are shovel ready. I could flip them today for 10 to 15k each with absoluty no problem… My exit is 30k…. Holding cost for all lots are maybe 200 a year each….and or I will build them out

    bulders are snapping these lots up and have been for the last 3 years..this is why you still see new construction in Atlanta 4 billion of new homes are being built there this year…. prices are lower because they got the land so cheap.

    Same thing with what I am building in Oregon,,,,, We are buuying lots for 100k less than they sold for in the peak…. pricing the same home 100k lower than the peak and we are selling as many as we can get up and we are making nice margins. With one project we have 100% bank leverage so our return on investment is infinite.

    I am closing on 26 lots next week for 25k each in Oregon,,, these peaked at 75k…. bank is making us put 50% down on the land so 300k to get in then will provide 100% of the verticle financing 4 starts at a time. These homes sold in the 225 to 250 range in the peak,,, we are building a little smaller and selling at 159 to 189k with a solid 20 to 22% net profit per home after all costs.

    Bottom line for me is: from the OZ perspective

    If you are considering buying some super cheapie house that is just going to give you fits as oppossed to buying some well placed lots… I thnk I would recommend the lots…. YOu will not lose money, on the house you have a very good chance of lossing the whole investment if you buy any of the many cheapie houses I see advertised in OZ

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