All Topics / General Property / What is happening to the property market

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  • Profile photo of ksherwellksherwell
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    @ksherwell
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    I've been doing some real estate consulting within the Point Cook area and I'm quite surprised with the level of inactivity within the marketplace.
    Is it a buyers market?
    I always told vendors if you buy and sell in the same market (time frame 4 months), there is no difference.
    Within most areas having over 100 to 200 homes for sale, I find it very strange that agents are only meeting 2 groups within a whole day  of open homes. Where are all these people moving to? they must be looking to purchase after their sale.
    I have contacted a number of my friends within the industry and they are experiencing the same thing.
    Some are saying the activity is worse then the GFC.
    With owners having high expectations, I'm having either drop their pricing by $50k or take them off the market.
    Are we at the bottom of the 20 year cycle and should brace for 4 years of property drought?
    http://www.ajfp.com.au/propertycycle
    How are you finding the marketplace?   

    Profile photo of Scott No MatesScott No Mates
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    End of financial year, it is winter (traditionally slow market), coming up to school holidays, you name it.

    Profile photo of fredo_4305fredo_4305
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    The QLD market has been flat for 4 years what are you whinging about??

    Melbourne market cannot go up for ever. Property goes in cycles and yes it is flat. Vendors have fresh in their memory the Melbourne good times just like QLD buyers have the floods fresh in their minds.

    I also believe the GFC is hurting us more know than during the GFC it also fear mungers as people are more cautious now.

    I live in Pt Cook and invest in QLD. There are wayyyyyyyyyyyy to many houses for sale out here. Why buy a used place when you can build your own for the same. I just had a mate whos house recently settled after he bought a block and built.

    Investors won’t buy in pt cook as the rental returns are junk and the capital growth is a bit average.

    Profile photo of mccozmccoz
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    Agree with Fredo.

    Loads of investors (mostly mum and dad investors) were sold into the idea of building in Point Cook through a number of companies in the name of “wealth creation”. Point Cook has enjoyed substantial growth in recent years. Many of these houses have now been completed, the investors are realising the consequences of an oversupply of housing with regard to sales and renting. Add to that, a general flat market. Which is why Point Cook is now flooded with houses for sale. Investors can get better returns elsewhere right now, rather than having to wait those extra years for the balance of demand and supply to come back.

    Profile photo of Jamie MooreJamie Moore
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    Things are a little flat in Canberra at the moment and there are certainly some good opportunities for those looking to buy. I don’t believe it’s been a dramatic shift though and we do need to remember that we had a massive spurt of growth in 2009/10 so this flattening out can be expected.

    Cheers

    Jamie

    Jamie Moore | Pass Go Home Loans Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of MikeLewisMikeLewis
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    Great job. Few buyers came into sight this Easter – but the market is not equally depressed in all regions. Asking prices are up everywhere except the West Midlands and East Anglia, according to Rightmove.. I have contacted a number of my friends within the industry and they are experiencing the same thing. Some are saying the activity is worse then the GFC. I also believe the GFC is hurting us more know than during the GFC it also fear mungers as people are more cautious now. Thanks you for sharing this information.

    Profile photo of KevinTurnerKevinTurner
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    I wrote an article last last week about buyer's confidence being down due to global share markets and an increasingly uncertain future for the economy. You may want to read it here http://www.realestatetalk.com.au/blog/buying/30-buyer-confidence-is-down

    Kevin Turner | RealEstateTalk Host
    Property Academy CEO Selling your home without an agent
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    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    Hi Everyone, I used to work in real estate and I remember for a good couple of years the demand was very high and supply was very low.  It’s true that a lot of the buyers where Mum and Dad investors who got caught up in wealth creation “etc”.
    Why has the market slowed down? This is just my opinion I am no expert. 1)      Price of  homes are still overvalued 2)      A lot of people cannot get loan t o service the homes because of high cost of living and other factors3)      There are so many homes for lease that its not even funny. I sold a house to a guy in a great located two years ago I bumped into him last week and he said his house has been for rent for a while and even at a very affordable rate he still can’t get it leased out. 4)      A lot of people are loosing their jobs and business have slowed down a lot Everyone looks at things different. I own a business and work full time some where else but my goals have changed so much in the last year or two. I went from being a person who wanted to own so much property to a person who want to pay off one home (Which is almost done) and invest in other investment that may get me greater returns.  If I see a property for a good price would I buy it? I wouldn’t even dare. Why? Unless it provides me with a positive cash flow im not going to use  my money just to have another home.

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
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    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    ksherwell wrote:
    Is it a buyers market?

    Not yet but it is getting there.

    Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    I absolutely LOVE how when houses don't keep selling for all time high's and people sit and wonder how and why it is possible, Then they start blaming anything from the stock market to poor confidence because of the "GFC" to the easter bunny or the falling of gaddafi regime… or maybe its just the cold weather ???

    Never do they turn to the biggest factor in any purchasable commodity = price

    Hell, they can't even spruik the market up enough to sell the houses on the block anymore ! 

    Some person above mentioned something about… "where do the people move too" , "insert propaganda about housing shortage here"

    We currently have a historic low number of people per dwelling in Australia, Remember we don't actually need a 250sqm house for every 0.5 population

    That means as people figure out that housing in a rip off right now, They will move in with other people and supply's will continue to increase

    Profile photo of NHBB.com.auNHBB.com.au
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    @nhbb.com.au
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    KevinTurner wrote:
    I wrote an article last last week about buyer's confidence being down due to global share markets and an increasingly uncertain future for the economy. You may want to read it here http://www.realestatetalk.com.au/blog/buying/30-buyer-confidence-is-down

    Agree with you Kevin, I have been saying this for a while, and its good to read it from a different source., cheers for the link.

     Kevin Turner | RealEstateTalk Host
    Property Academy CEO Selling your home without an agent
    [email protected] | Twitter: @Realestatetalk

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    hbbehrendorff wrote:
    We currently have a historic low number of people per dwelling in Australia, Remember we don't actually need a 250sqm house for every 0.5 population

    That means as people figure out that housing in a rip off right now, They will move in with other people and supply's will continue to increase

    So, a reduced household size continues to contribute to constrained supply in Australia. I can easily count on the fingers of one hand, the number of people I know who still live with parents. The vast majority of the folk I know generally fall into these main groups:

    1. People who rent either by themselves or with others, have been happily doing so for some time and not looking to buy, not even in the near future.
    2. People who used to rent but have recently bought (or are going to buy) their own home and moved into it. Some of them did so shortly before or after forming a 'household unit', that is, getting married or getting children.
    3. Those who currently live in their own home either singly, have a family or live with a long-term partner.

    And I can't even think of anybody I know who used to rent and has now moved back with their parents. I only know of TWO single people who are currently paying off their own homes and chose to move back with parents for a combination of reasons: to enjoy the comforts that parents can offer, to pay off their home quicker or to reduce their loan to a more manageable amount before they move out. The gist of it is that you generally have plenty of people leaving their parents and settling down elsewhere.

    Young people fly the nest and leave their parents for a myriad of reasons. As far as I can see, Western culture differs a lot from that of most Asians. Young Australians are, for whatever reason it may be, seemingly very keen to get away from their 'old folks', whereas in a lot of countries in Asia, living at home for an extended period (and only moving out after marriage) is an accepted norm. My point is that it's going to take a lot for people here to start moving back with their folks, in order to result in the overall increase of household size and increased supply that you believe would eventually exist.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    I think your observations fword are based on the circle of friends you keep, as hbbehrendorff's may be. I guess ours all are – it is hard to look beyond our immediate sources of influence to try and get an understanding for a majority that those influences may or may not represent.

    I do think however, that it doesn't matter what anyone wants, if they can't afford it they can't have it (without credit expansion). Rent has never been based on credit – it is based on what people can afford there and then.

    My take on the rental market for the last 5 years or so (trying to be unbiased) is that the bottom is always in hotly contested demand, whereas prices higher than that get much less tenant interest. This suggests to me that a kind of peak rent has been reached – that even those who would normally rent in the middle of the market (myself included) prefer to rent at the bottom and those that rent at the bottom can barely afford the cost.

    If I lived in a state close to either my parents or inlaws, I would consider moving in with them – not for comfort but just because it would make economic sense for both of us. If I gave either of them half of what I pay in rent – they would be stoked and I could save at twice the rate but it would be uncomfortable for the time. The discomfort, however, is working towards a long term goal – me buying a house with as much of the money up front as possible.

    I agree that few would actively make the same choice but I feel that some now have no choice because of rising costs. And in the news today, 50-100k people are tipped to lose work over the coming year. That is more that will have choice taken away from them. 

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