USA – Where to buy?

Ok … here is some info that I've come across so far that has been appealling to me. I am so flat out with other things atm(and it's 2am)  that I haven't analysed it too well yet, and I haven't written anything about the demographics …. next time !!!
Darn … the data charts at the bottom are going to change their format once I save this post …. not too hard to work  out the info tho  (it's my favourite part of my research) Having a bit of trouble finding statistics for foreclosures … any assistance would be much appreciated
Here goes … hope I'm not rambling on too much; and I hope you enjoy the info as I have

San Antonio is expected to be one of the  Next Big Boom Towns In The U.S.
According to Forbes mag  of 6 July 2011 " Many of our top performers are not surprising….  No. 1 Austin, Texas …Of course, Texas metropolitan areas feature prominently on our list of future boom towns, including No. 4 San Antonio, No. 5 Houston and No. 7 Dallas, which over the past years boasted the biggest jump in new jobs, over 83,000. Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies, these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families".

“In San Antonio, the homes for sale inventory has decreased markedly. That means less competition for sellers and fewer opportunities for buyers.
Also, 2011 has seen the return of the area's typical 2% to 3% home value appreciation rate. That means sellers are less likely to consider low ball offers and more likely to expect a sales prices that are closer to their asking prices. Consequently, in the near term, buyers can expect to encounter less seller flexibility and harder negotiations.
Why is San Antonio's realty market so much better than most of the Nation's other large cities? Clearly, San Antonio has weathered the late great recession very well. The area's past economic and demographic trends and its long term projections reflect a large and vibrant metropolitan area with a strong, stable, and growth oriented personality”. ~ Stephanie and Randy Kelley, Realtors® of Keller Williams Legacy, San Antonio, Texas

1st Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: San Antonio, Texas
 HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
Trend Forecast: UP
Forecast Accuracy: 75%
ForecastChart.com publishes forecasts for the trend in the annual appreciation
rate of home prices in 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price
Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the San Antonio
housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2012 is UP.
The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast for San Antonio is 75%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
75% of the time. Accordingly, ForecastChart.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in San Antonio is 75%. If this Housing Market Forecast is
correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2012 than they were in
the 1st Quarter of 2011.

MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2011 Housing Data: San Antonio, Texas
Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter -0.36%
Last Year 0.4%
Last 5 Years 12%
Last 10 Years 45%
Last 20 Years 106%
Decline From All Time High 2.42%

Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1981 38.69%
1982 -15.49%
1984 14.42%
1985 -8.21%
1993 6.41%
1994 0.09%
2007 6.56%
2008 -1.31%
2009 0.47%
2010 0.29%

Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter -0.36% Rank: 52 of 381 (86th Percentile)
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4% Rank: 66 of 381 (82nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years 12% Rank: 25 of 381 (93rd Percentile)
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 45% Rank: 84 of 381 (78th Percentile)
Last 20 Years 106% Rank: 113 of 346 (67th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High 2.42%
San Antonio appreciated -0.36% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the San Antonio Real Estate Market was ranked
52nd out of 381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. San Antonio was in the 86th percentile. So San Antonio, TX performed better in the Last Quarter than 86% of the 381 metropolitan areas covered in ForecastChart.com.

 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2011 Housing Statistics: San Antonio, Texas
The all time high in the San Antonio Home Price Index was 178.1 in the 1st Quarter, of 2009.
The 1st Quarter, 2011 index value was 173.8. That's a decline of 4.31 points or 2.42% below the San Antonio Home Price Index all time high. The Home Price Index indicates that the San Antonio Market is up 45% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the San Antonio Real Estate Market have gained 0.45% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 119%

San Antonio, TX Market Statistics and Real Estate Trends at 01 August 2011 

San Antonio, TX August 1, 2011

– San Antonio's home resale inventories decreased slightly, with a 1 percent decrease since July 2011. Distressed properties such as foreclosures and short sales remained the same as a percentage of the total market in August. The median listing price in San Antonio stayed the same from July to August. There were a total of 146 price increases and 1856 price decreases.

San Antonio, TX Market Snapshots

San Antonio, TX Market Data Chart

Hi Nigel

LUCKY YOU !!!  I love San Antonio …  I have never been there,but, whatever new thing I learn about the place makes it even easier to love it even more

I am 'green' in property investment, and I need all the information I can get, so I appreciate your helping me to learn what I need to know to do it well …. thank you
(There's a few other treasures I've come across who I look forward to chatting with too ~ give yourselves a pat guys … you know who you are !!!) lol

I'm specifically interested in foreclosures for the simple reason of cost savings; but I can't find a data base that give statistics … can you also help me with that?

Can I ask why you opted out of  the r/e firm ?

Thanks again, and I hope it's a happy day for you
Marg

I think previous poster (Rob) pretty much nailed it, and I think I remember I've made a number of similar comment on similar threads. As some of you probably know by now, I also have an interest in US property – I am the CEO of a U.S. based asset manager that sell a lot of properties to foreign investors, and we work with a number of both direct investors as well as agents from Australia. I've done this since I was 18 years old, so I'd like to think I've got a decent idea of what's happening:-)

We operate nationwide in buying bulk portfolios, and some of the properties will be rehabbed for rental, and those are the ones we sell, with a cash flow, to investors. I have my "favorites" across the country, although to avoid being branded as an advertisement, I won't go too much into detail.

The point I wanted to make is, you can't really select one area over another using a "blanket" statement – which is something I see done time and time again by "buyers agents" both in Australia and outside. They'll say stuff like "we only sell Buffalo cause unemployment is low, but we won't do Indianapolis cause unemployment in Indiana is higher than in the 90's" and any similar statements like that, without (in many cases) never even been to visit the place more than once, and with very little knowledge about what's actually happening.

In it's simplest form – would I take West Palm Beach over Toledo? Sure I would… But would I take a house in one of the worst areas of Palm Beach County (Pahookee, Belle Glade) over a house in one of the nicest streets in Toledo? No, I don't think so.

I have visited Australia three times – and I've been told many times over that Sydney is maybe the nicest place in the world, and that might well be true – it's awesome. But it doesn't mean that there weren't times when we were travelling around Sydney, that I didn't feel a little bit "on edge". That is the same for our American cities as well.

You can absolutely look at the macro statistics – is there a large employer moving to the area, is there general growth in population, are they predicting growth in property values/birth rates/immigrant arrivals etc, as that will affect the GENERAL area that you're looking at.

Then you need to look at YOUR specific target property (like Rob also pointed out, not trying to steal your light here…) and it's IMMEDIATE surroundings. Are there boarded up homes there, where is the boundary between school districts (hugely important in low- middle class areas, as the kids aren't likely to be in Private schools, and public school districts vary hugely between different suburbs) is there a bus route (yeah, we use them (I think..) especially in low- income areas) and the list goes on….

What type of tenant is it, how was he screened, how are the payments made, who is managing the property?

You'll be shocked to hear that Detroit is one of our most successful cities to date. No, not the "$1000 homes" Detroit, but the "North of 9 Mile, working for a living, trying to clean up the image of this city" Detroit, where properties can be bought for a low price, be rented Section 8 to a GOOD tenant, and you can get ALL the insurances you would normally buy. That's a free tip from me – if you can't insure it, it's probably in the hood.

Another one is Indianapolis – but then again – IN POCKETS, it's a great opportunity. In other areas, it's just as bad, if not worse, than downtown Detroit. We can go all day, and discuss these different cities.

So my advise there is look at the MICRO aspects – who are you using for the purchase, who will manage the property, what type of rental is it – and go from there…

My second point I wanted to make, and this might be counter intuitive – but once YOU have found something that fits your parameters, and you are in a position to afford to do so – buy it!
The simple fact is (and kill me if I'm wrong…) but you'll never find a "sure thing". There's always going to be one or two things about a deal that you're not comfortable with. Whatever that might be – either try and fix it, or if it's something outside your control, decide wheter you can live with that or not.
If you will lose sleep over it, move on, if you can live with it – go ahead and do the deal.

I just see a lot of people who get so caught up studying everything from Governments plans for the future, to the predicted future of the Dollar and really ANYTHING, related or un related to the actual investment, that they get so worked out  from it that they never make the purchase. I don't mean to sound like a salesman, but if you find something that fits all you need, why wait?

So to sum it up (if you're still here – thanks!) decide EXACTLY what you want (cash flow vs growth prospect) how you want to do it (pay an Australian firm vs free research) what price range, how long you want to hold it, and then work out who you are as an investor. At the end of the day, neither me, nor any Australian agent can know what you really want and desire, although once you have figured that out for yourself, we're all more than happy to help.

[email protected]

I may be in Australia but my business partner is in San Antonio. Also I do not deal with real estate agents.
Frankly I have been doing this for 5 years and am more than happy with the results of my clients

Krefter, I can help with your SMSF situation, or at the very least put you on to someone, an accountancy expert in both Australian and US matters, that can help you through the taxation queries you have.  Contact me through my website.

Apart from this I am in full agreement with HighIncomeProperty and the comments posted at 12.10 am on Aug 11.  Good advice indeed.

Rob
http://www.uspropertyinvest.com.au 

The left are already attacking Rick Perry. What is laughable is that Obama is trying to take credit for the jobs growth in Texas.
Perry has been Pro business, for instance he approached Toyota and offered them a 99 year tax break to relocate there Truck division to San Antonio. As the second plant opens they will employ more than 6000 people. This is a direct result of Perrys leadership. I think he stands a great chance of winning the nomination and then the presidency.

Thank you for posting reality I have been preaching 7 to 10% NET returns and I know this is a fact. But have basically been Booed off this forum. Lots  of day dreamers there in OZ

morpheusbushy, thanks for starting this very interesting thread. I know it's been a while since anyone has posted but wanted to ask a couple of questions specifically relating to the information contained herein. I see from your blog you have purchased your first property in the USA. Looks nice, but you haven't posted for a while so I hope all is well Would be very interested in hearing how it's all going.

jayhinrichs, I have looked at your website and you appear to have an interesting business model. I do have a couple of questions however. On your success stories page, you list some properties such as this one below:

836 Eagles Nest

Monthly Cash Flow: $309.16

How does this work exactly? Investor equity day 1 is $20,000 – is this half of the purchase price of the property? Note price is $53,000. Would it be correct to assume the note price is half the purchase price plus closing and rehab costs? ARV is $93,000 – where does this valuation figure come from? Is it backed up by MLS sales or an appraisal value? I think the model is quite clever but my concern would be that the actual sales price that the property would achieve on today's market may not be $93k. Perhaps there will be capital growth potential over the 5 years until note expiry, perhaps not and perhaps the US market has further to fall. It's difficult to predict in the current economy no? We'll be in the US mid next year so might swing by and say hi. You also mentioned you had a buy and hold strategy on some land. Would be interested in exploring further. I'll PM you with my email address.

We have been umming and arring about purchasing in the US for the past year and a half. At first we were attracted to the potential rental yields but digging further we were put off by the horror stories of people paying too much, tenants and property managers from hell. We are still interested in investing but don't want to make a terrible mistake with our retirement money.

In terms of where to buy, it seems everyone has quite strong opinions and with the US being such an enormous market it is very difficult to know where to start looking.

Thanks everyone for your comments on this. It has made for enjoyable Christmas holiday reading.

Where to buy in the US is dependent on so many factors. The first thing we ask is “what do you want to achieve?” and work from there. There are so many market which is why we diversified our service locations to cater for different types of investors.