Our population growth is falling rapidly….

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Zetaboards_APF_MigrationTrendOld.png

Source Documents – ABS.gov.au
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/3401.0Nov%202010?OpenDocument

Seems population growth can no longer be counted as a main driver for demand……
We have gone from 2.2% to 1.7% in June 2010 to what I expect to be 1.1% this June. Now 0.7% comes from natural growth and if we do not pay attention to our peaking emigration, things could get very ugly indeed..

2010 numbers….
Permanent arrivals over permanent departures, only 54,000 people last year.
Approximately 3,300 Australia born citizens are moving each month from Australia, permanently.
Departures were 86.277 and increase of 6.5% over the previous year.
Since 1975 departures have ranged from a low 18,100 in 1986 to now.
Lowest in 1987 at 14.3% of arrivals, it is now at its peak of 61.4%
Overseas born residents moving out count for about 50% since 1989.
70% of those who were not born in Oz and who left, have been here for more than 5 years.
The biggest age group to leave Australia permanently last year, 25 to 35 year olds, and skilled.
 
Australia in now in a unique period of our demographics changes that signify the economic benefits of a high ratio of working-age to dependent population during our demographic transition towards an ageing population. During the stage we are in now, there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates have dropped to well below replacement levels since the mid 1970’s and that would normally lead to a shrinking population, had we not have our high net immigration.
 
As the large group born during our baby boom, 1946 to 1965 ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population by increased health, pensions and aged care. Our death rates are remaining consistently low and longevity is ageing our population as the average age climbs beyond the current 36.7
 
This ‘gift’ effect is not automatic and was earned by the presence of suitable economic policies, including high immigration, that allowed a relatively large workforce to be productively employed, evident in our current participation rates.
 
Now, the first wave of baby boomers are about to retire on mass. 1.1 million people will be added to the over 65’s by 2015.
 
Low unemployment percentages will remain throughout the ‘grey economy’ starting this year and remain low, if not approach 0% as the full effects of the baby boomers, all retiring over the next 16 years, is felt.
 
Job ads will rise or stagnate as business will find it increasing harder to get staff. This trend will also continue well into this decade approaching.
 
Perhaps we should call the next 16 years the ‘retiring economy’ then after that the ‘grey economy’ 2026 to 2035
Then, as we have the boomers starting to die on mass, 2035 to 2045, the ‘black economy’, followed by the ‘green economy’ as the average age might actually drop, 2045 to 4000.

http://www.agequake.com.au. For more…..