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  • Profile photo of white_goodmanwhite_goodman
    Participant
    @white_goodman
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 67
    British Buyer wrote:
    I also believe in group behaviour, and have incorporated it into my few simple stock-investing rules:

    1. Don't buy too soon after the market has crashed (my mistake in 2000).  Ie. don't get caught by the Dead Cat Bounce, or Don't Try To Catch A Falling Knife

    2. Buy when everyone is depressed.  Don't let this negative sentiment affect your logic.

    3. Don't try to pick winners (this applies to me since I'm not a professional investor, and have no inside scoops on specific companies).  Just spread your money (and your risk) around.  For example, I bought $5K of every stock listed on the Shanghai B-share bourse, since there's no transparency in China, so there's no point trying to be smart.

    4. When markets are rising, go with the flow.  The Trend Is Your Friend.  Herd Behaviour can make you a lot of money.

    5. Get out when the market has surpassed all previous highs (and has surpassed your expectations for capital gains).  If your servants are putting their money into stocks, that's a sell signal.

    to be honest that only looks like a minor correction, looking at current correlations it will still go up as long as people/funds keep having to pump funds in the 'risk on' trade. Due to the expectation of the RMB appreciating in the near to mid term global funds, specifically from the US will look to carry exposure there as they benefit from capital appreciation and exchange rate appreciation. The only problem is it may be trading way above fundamentals (P/E ratios etc) which isnt automatically mean down, just means not a good area to be 'loading up'. You are correct about markets being highly correlated, the automated arbitration and hedging strategies adopted between stock indcies and other investment classes means there is very little difference between ivnesting in the S&P to the Nikkei to the ASX200 as a basket… if you were to overlay the charts of all major world indicies you will see how surprisingly similar they look when looking back to the start of heavy computer automation in markets. Those rules are a pretty good guideline especially number 5 with contrarian indicators. There was a guy (forget his name) that invested basically on the opposite of what financially hit the front page. Ie "Gold set to go to record highs", he would short gold or take an anti gold correlated position. Thats why im also keen to hit the US property market, even though the AUD could very well go higher, its starting to gain traction in the news media.

    If anyones interested in good books on investing id recommend Benjamin Graham's – The intelligent Investor (make sure you get the revised edition with a 2003 update)

    if you want a great book on speculation/economics/market psychology, I subscribe to George Soros – The Alchemy of Finance

    also its important to recognise theirs a major difference between investing and speculation, that being investment indicates you receive an income (dividends) where speculation is where profit is based on simply price gains. As a rule I weight my portfolio
    as 60% dividend stocks (investment – where you funnily enough want stocks to get cheaper), 25% speculation and 15% cash (savings account as I cant be arsed buying bonds)… obviously wightings all depends on financial situation and risk tolerance.

    Profile photo of mojorisingmojorising
    Member
    @mojorising
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 28

    Thanks for the informative insight into your foray in to the US property market BB.

    Hope you take the setbacks and frustrations in your stride.

    Work it off on the surf-board! Don't know if Miami is a surf beach but the waters warming up nicely in Sydney.

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
    Participant
    @british-buyer
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 149
    Zita wrote:

    Thank you for your well executed response Britsh Buyer, your wealth of knowledge is highly valuableand we much appreciate the effort and time you put into your posts.

    We noticed your previous post's have been somewhat slightly 'disheartened', and for good reason. There will always be hurdles, but you've come along way and your hard work and persistence will pay off!! So keep your mind on the goal at hand. In the interim, we wish the best to your son, ofcourse he comes first.

    Just a quick update from our end here in Sydney, and the steps that we are taking to prepare us for our trip over to Miami in March.
    I visited HSBC yesterday to find out what we need to do to open up a bank account in Miami:

    1. You need to open an account in Australia first and then a second account in Miami.
    2. There are two types of accounts: A Standards Savings or a Premier account.
    3. The Standard Savings Account is highly restrictive when it comes to access/functionability over in Miami:
    – You are provided with a debit card to be used whilst in Miami – Max withdrawl $400 daily.
    – You are not recognised in the Miami Branches therefor you cannot do much from that end.
    – 2% chagre on any amount you withdrawl (ofcourse you need to factor in the exchange rate)
    – Costs $200 to set up in Miami and you are not guaranteed apoproval.
    -2-3 days netbanking
    4. The Premier account
    – Requires that you deposit $200,000 + to be eligable
    – Ofcourse great access/functionality once over in Miami
    – $2000 daily withdrawl limit
    – You are recognised within the HSBC Miami Branches
    – Discounts on travel/accomodation/dining/home&contents insurance/home loans and the likes
    – Instant netbanking

    So ofcourse after depositing a lump sum as such, you would be expecting all the benefits and service +, and that is certainly what they provide. However, at this stage and on our first trip, we will not be dealing with $200,000 +. Ideally we would be looking at approx $30K + which now leaves us having to look at other avenues.

    One avenue being, cash. Has anyone travelled over with ridiculous amounts of cash. If so, what are your means of securing it and playing it safe? Or are there any other suggestions anyone could share in regards to this?

    Many thanks in advance,

    Hi Zita

    If you're planning to buy property  for about 50K, in which case you won't be applying for a mortgage, then you can easily come over with the 50K in your carry-on luggage.

    The limit for not needing to declare money at US customs is 10K, but if you're over the limit you just fill out a form to state how much you're carrying, and why.  This process took me about 1 minute.

    If you want to buy a house worth much more (eg. 100K) and then apply for a mortgage, carrying it on your person would probably also be OK so long as you keep a paper trail or your purchase of $ in your home country, your declaration at US customs, and your deposit into a US bank account on arrival.  Lenders require to see a paper trail to prove it's your money, and if there isn't one then they will probably ask you to season the money for 3 months.

    I do not believe that you need to deposit 200K in an HSBC premier account.  I think only 100K (here in the US) and only 80K in China.  If you deposit less than that then you just pay $50 per month.  Since premier account interest rates are so much lower than any others, it'd be in your interests to just open an HSBC premier account here in Miami, deposit whatever you've brought with you, get a mortgage, and pay the $50 "fine" for a few months.  Then, if I were you, just convert the premier account to a different kind of account within HSBC (this is what someone at Hong Kong HSBC recommended to me on the phone).

    Bear in mind that carrying over 50K in cash might be nerve-wracking. 

    Surely you're able to open an account in your home country that will allow you to request money to be wired to you when you're in the US? 

    The only reason I didn't set this up was because China is, as far as I know, the only country that won't allow you to request money to be sent to yourself overseas from a Chinese bank account.

    Let me know what you decide
    cheers
    Steve

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
    Participant
    @british-buyer
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 149
    white_goodman wrote:
    British Buyer wrote:
    I also believe in group behaviour, and have incorporated it into my few simple stock-investing rules:

    1. Don't buy too soon after the market has crashed (my mistake in 2000).  Ie. don't get caught by the Dead Cat Bounce, or Don't Try To Catch A Falling Knife

    2. Buy when everyone is depressed.  Don't let this negative sentiment affect your logic.

    3. Don't try to pick winners (this applies to me since I'm not a professional investor, and have no inside scoops on specific companies).  Just spread your money (and your risk) around.  For example, I bought $5K of every stock listed on the Shanghai B-share bourse, since there's no transparency in China, so there's no point trying to be smart.

    4. When markets are rising, go with the flow.  The Trend Is Your Friend.  Herd Behaviour can make you a lot of money.

    5. Get out when the market has surpassed all previous highs (and has surpassed your expectations for capital gains).  If your servants are putting their money into stocks, that's a sell signal.

    to be honest that only looks like a minor correction, looking at current correlations it will still go up as long as people/funds keep having to pump funds in the 'risk on' trade. Due to the expectation of the RMB appreciating in the near to mid term global funds, specifically from the US will look to carry exposure there as they benefit from capital appreciation and exchange rate appreciation. The only problem is it may be trading way above fundamentals (P/E ratios etc) which isnt automatically mean down, just means not a good area to be 'loading up'. You are correct about markets being highly correlated, the automated arbitration and hedging strategies adopted between stock indcies and other investment classes means there is very little difference between ivnesting in the S&P to the Nikkei to the ASX200 as a basket… if you were to overlay the charts of all major world indicies you will see how surprisingly similar they look when looking back to the start of heavy computer automation in markets. Those rules are a pretty good guideline especially number 5 with contrarian indicators. There was a guy (forget his name) that invested basically on the opposite of what financially hit the front page. Ie "Gold set to go to record highs", he would short gold or take an anti gold correlated position. Thats why im also keen to hit the US property market, even though the AUD could very well go higher, its starting to gain traction in the news media.

    If anyones interested in good books on investing id recommend Benjamin Graham's – The intelligent Investor (make sure you get the revised edition with a 2003 update)

    if you want a great book on speculation/economics/market psychology, I subscribe to George Soros – The Alchemy of Finance

    also its important to recognise theirs a major difference between investing and speculation, that being investment indicates you receive an income (dividends) where speculation is where profit is based on simply price gains. As a rule I weight my portfolio
    as 60% dividend stocks (investment – where you funnily enough want stocks to get cheaper), 25% speculation and 15% cash (savings account as I cant be arsed buying bonds)… obviously wightings all depends on financial situation and risk tolerance.

    Good input on the topic of stocks.  If mine was investing 101, yours was investing 505!

    Why do you want stocks to get cheaper when you've invested just for the dividends?

    I'm a total novice (or perhaps I should say "self taught") investor, so never approached the issue in the systematic way you have.

     My father is a non-materialist (was a low-paid government doctor before retiring) so got not lessons there. 

    At university I studied Biology, which turned out to be a total waste. 

    One of my greatest regrets in life was that I didn't get a degree in economics, since the flow of money, its efficiency, its wastage, and the wild variation in its value over time and distance, are truly fascinating to me.

    Due to my horrendous loss in the stock market back in 2001, I now keep 90% of my assets in property, with the remaining 10% in either stocks or cash.  I just "play" in the stock market, buying when it looks cheap, selling when its high.  I don't have the personality for owning large amounts of stocks.  Losing 30% of my net worth during a major market crash is just something I don't want in my life, and for me isn't worth the potential upside during a bull period.   I'm no George Soros! 

    I know I'm too overweight in property, especially since it's all in one country, which is why I'm trying to diversify out of Chinese property.

    Profile photo of USProInvestUSProInvest
    Participant
    @usproinvest
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 2

    Hi Steve,

    I am interested in the following list of REO prop in Miami in your earlier post. Can you send me that list to my email: [email protected]. Thanks

    This list will be divided into 2 sections:

    1. REO condos priced 20K to 40K that have just hit the market, and will give good rental returns (10% to upwards rental return after paying HOA and Prop. Tax).  The condos these buildings are in will all have been checked by myself and my realtor, will all be in good areas, and will all have pools and gyms.

    2. REO Single Family Homes that have just hit the market, that are priced between about 120K and 350K (so as to ensure that they are expensive enough to be  in good areas, but not too cheap so as to rule out financing opportunities), and that should offer about 6 to 8% rental returns, and very good capital gains opportunities.

    This list will be automatically generated by setting up parameters using the MLS listing for Miami (ie. if condos, according to buildings I've already checked out, or if SFHs, according to areas I've already visited). 

    My realtor will automatically receive daily updates (from the Miami MLS listings) to add to this list.  I shall make this list available to the public (free of charge).   However, I won't publicly display the list, so as to reduce the number of people making concurrent bids, and thereby working at odds with each other. 

    If you're interested in access to the list, you just need to e-mail me.  Once you've located an REO that interests you, you can make contact with my realtor and make bids of your own, according to the price asked by the bank.  There would be absolutely no fee charged by my realtor since she makes her commission (3%) from the seller (ie. the bank).

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
    Participant
    @british-buyer
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 149
    USProInvest wrote:

    Hi Steve,

    I am interested in the following list of REO prop in Miami in your earlier post. Can you send me that list to my email: [email protected]. Thanks

    This list will be divided into 2 sections:

    1. REO condos priced 20K to 40K that have just hit the market, and will give good rental returns (10% to upwards rental return after paying HOA and Prop. Tax).  The condos these buildings are in will all have been checked by myself and my realtor, will all be in good areas, and will all have pools and gyms.

    2. REO Single Family Homes that have just hit the market, that are priced between about 120K and 350K (so as to ensure that they are expensive enough to be  in good areas, but not too cheap so as to rule out financing opportunities), and that should offer about 6 to 8% rental returns, and very good capital gains opportunities.

    This list will be automatically generated by setting up parameters using the MLS listing for Miami (ie. if condos, according to buildings I've already checked out, or if SFHs, according to areas I've already visited). 

    My realtor will automatically receive daily updates (from the Miami MLS listings) to add to this list.  I shall make this list available to the public (free of charge).   However, I won't publicly display the list, so as to reduce the number of people making concurrent bids, and thereby working at odds with each other. 

    If you're interested in access to the list, you just need to e-mail me.  Once you've located an REO that interests you, you can make contact with my realtor and make bids of your own, according to the price asked by the bank.  There would be absolutely no fee charged by my realtor since she makes her commission (3%) from the seller (ie. the bank).

    Hi USProInvest 

    I made a bit of a premature announcement earlier this week on the forum, namely that I would offer recommendations regarding specific buildings in Miami worth investing your money in (a “list”).  I was still feeling “high” on the Miami property market, since I was in the very early stages of my investigation.

    For many reasons I’ve now decided it isn’t my place to offer people any advice whatsoever on where to park their hard-earned money.  I’ve only been in Miami for 2 weeks, am as yet nothing other than an observer, haven’t even made a single purchase myself, and now realize that I do not have the experience or contacts to give accurate info regarding this market.  

    Unlike a lot of buyers “on the ground” in the US, I’m not running a business, so there’s no profit for me if I can con you into making a specific purchase. 

    Yet if I advise particular properties to the 30+ people who’ve requested such information from me over the past few days, and if just some of them turn out to be bad investments, there are going to be a lot of people cursing me all over the various property forums. Also, I noticed that many of the people who contacted me for the “list” were the same guys running those Detroit, Atlanta and Las Vegas based Cash-Flow Companies.  They no doubt thought that, without putting in the work themselves, they could suddenly expand their services to Miami. 

    If I were to produce such a list, and even assuming I had accurately predicted good investment buildings, this information would be shared amongst so many overseas buyers that there’d be bidding wars that’d push the property prices higher than they’re actually worth.
     If you have any specific information (including a particular property or building) you’d like my advice on, I’ll be happy to give it on a case-by-case basis. 

    Regards

    Steven

    Profile photo of white_goodmanwhite_goodman
    Participant
    @white_goodman
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 67
    British Buyer wrote:
    Good input on the topic of stocks.  If mine was investing 101, yours was investing 505!

    Why do you want stocks to get cheaper when you've invested just for the dividends?

    I'm a total novice (or perhaps I should say "self taught") investor, so never approached the issue in the systematic way you have.

     My father is a non-materialist (was a low-paid government doctor before retiring) so got not lessons there. 

    At university I studied Biology, which turned out to be a total waste. 

    One of my greatest regrets in life was that I didn't get a degree in economics, since the flow of money, its efficiency, its wastage, and the wild variation in its value over time and distance, are truly fascinating to me.

    Due to my horrendous loss in the stock market back in 2001, I now keep 90% of my assets in property, with the remaining 10% in either stocks or cash.  I just "play" in the stock market, buying when it looks cheap, selling when its high.  I don't have the personality for owning large amounts of stocks.  Losing 30% of my net worth during a major market crash is just something I don't want in my life, and for me isn't worth the potential upside during a bull period.   I'm no George Soros! 

    I know I'm too overweight in property, especially since it's all in one country, which is why I'm trying to diversify out of Chinese property.

    the major difference between being overweight property and overweight stocks for eg is the nature of both markets… due to the fact property isnt as transparent in prices (ie constantly changing like on an exchange), this means the worst human instincts of hope and fear arent as prominent in 'buggering up' investments like in stock markets where peoples natural reaction is to buy tops and sell bottoms  which makes property investment easier to hold as there is a long time lag with information.The idea of modern portfolio theory and diversification carries too much weight in the investment world to be honest, Buffet made his fortune b concentrating on a few select companies (think it was Coca Cola was one), thats why in some circles its known as 'di-worsification'.

    I luckily completed my property economics degree then just spent the past year, my first year out of uni in a trading firm, so ive got a fairly good exposure to both, but ultimately its all just economics. The reason you want dividend stocks to go down (not too much just so they are cheap) is that the smartest and most proven strategy for investment in dividends is DCA (dollar cost averaging). Your trying to get the best yields for your investment dollars, which with share re-investment and regular purchases should let compounding take effect and build up a large position delivering good income streams. Its all explained in "Intelligent Investor" (Buffets Bible).

    The way your approaching it atm is probably best, cos its such a relatively small amount of your capital/net worth that the loss of money wont affect your living situation or future. This means ur more likely to act rationally and not crumble under pressure of falling prices, its very much a mental game which is why property as an investment class has significant advantage in this aspect.

    Profile photo of USProInvestUSProInvest
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    @usproinvest
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 2

    Hi Steve,

    Thanks you for your prompt response and I understand where you're coming from. I am new to the forum and have been looking at Miami and Orlando prop on Trulia website for the last couple of weeks. To be honest, Ive got so confused and don't know which area of Miami I should be looking at. Please note that I'm not a Professional investor and your list of REO prop will be used to guide me in my research. At the end of the day, I should be liable for my action and should not blame you.
    Regards

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
    Participant
    @british-buyer
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 149
    USProInvest wrote:
    Hi Steve,

    Thanks you for your prompt response and I understand where you're coming from. I am new to the forum and have been looking at Miami and Orlando prop on Trulia website for the last couple of weeks. To be honest, Ive got so confused and don't know which area of Miami I should be looking at. Please note that I'm not a Professional investor and your list of REO prop will be used to guide me in my research. At the end of the day, I should be liable for my action and should not blame you.
    Regards

    Hi ProInvestor

    Miami is a huge city, so it can be daunting when trying to decide where to start.  To simplify things (ie. if you're not familiar with Miami), you should just buy as close to the ocean or the intercoastal waterway that your money can afford.  There is only one bad area on the whole mainland coastline north and south of downtown Miami  that is a bit iffy, and that's South West Coconut Grove, and even there it might be a good investment, since the area might gentrify one day, and at least you'd be buying now at a discount due to dodgy neighbours.

    When it comes to the island that Miami Beach is on, everywhere is good.  There are some cheaper bargain spots on the islands between this main island and the mainland.

    Good luck, and if you find a particular place, send me the address and I'll advise if I know the street/area.

    cheers
    Steve

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
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    @british-buyer
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 149

    TO WHITE_GOODMAN

    I wish I'd studied what you did.  Perpahs I'd be a Wall Street trader.  No, better yet, I could be a Shanghai trader, since that's where all the action is headed.

    What's your view on the Aus property market?  Bubbling, or sustainable due to the Chinese influence?

    Profile photo of patwxpatwx
    Member
    @patwx
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 7

    Thanks BB for sharing your experiences. I have really enjoyed your posts. I can understand your frustrations. As foreign buyers or potential foreign buyers, our number one enemy is time because we are not there for very long. The realtors know that and will take advantage of that.  They know that we will be desperate to buy something before we leave for home otherwise we may feel that the trip was a failure.  They have probably seen this situation time and time again.

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
    Participant
    @british-buyer
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    Post Count: 149
    patwx wrote:
    Thanks BB for sharing your experiences. I have really enjoyed your posts. I can understand your frustrations. As foreign buyers or potential foreign buyers, our number one enemy is time because we are not there for very long. The realtors know that and will take advantage of that.  They know that we will be desperate to buy something before we leave for home otherwise we may feel that the trip was a failure.  They have probably seen this situation time and time again.

    Yes, you are so right.

    And in fact, most realtors will try to take you to see only regular sales (ie. they'll steer you clear of REOs and Short Sales) so that they have a much greater chance of getting you to put in an offer that will, after some bargaining, turn into a sale.

    REOs, on the other hand, are just hit and miss, so the realtor does a lot of work but is most likely going to get no commission.  And you may as well just forget about Short Sales if you're only on a buying trip.  They can take up to a year to get an answer on!

    Profile photo of patwxpatwx
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    @patwx
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    Zita wrote:

    One avenue being, cash. Has anyone travelled over with ridiculous amounts of cash. If so, what are your means of securing it and playing it safe? Or are there any other suggestions anyone could share in regards to this?

    Many thanks in advance,

    Hi Zita

    Instead of carrying cash, you could use travel money cards. I know that ANZ travelcard allows you to carry a maximum of $15,000 USD on one card so if you take 2 cards, then you could carry $30K which is the amount that you want to bring over.  The only drawback is it only allows a daily withdrawal of $1800 USD  per card through the ATMs  so it will take about 8 days for you to withdraw all  the cash when you are there. You or someone else can also reload the travelcard.  Let me know how it goes.

    Profile photo of gmpropertygmproperty
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    @gmproperty
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    Hi Steve,

    Each time I travel over to Florida for any length of time I renew my FLdriving licence, but they only renew it for three months at a time as I travel on the visa waiver program. I have a car and a pick up here which are both insured with Geico. I always go to Driving Licence offices in person and have never had a problem getting a licence.
     
    I also believe each state has their own driving licence, so if FL wont let you take a test, maybe travel to Georgia?

    I am currently in Atlanta closing on two REO, I understand your frustrations, the two I am closing on I first looked at 6 weeks ago. 

    Don't lose too much sleep if you don't purchase a Property for yourself to live in, I purchased a "holiday home" north of Miami in a place called Melbourne Beach. I purchased it in 2004, and if you total the amount of time myself and my family have stayed there it only amounts to a few months. So financially speaking its just been a liability. On the other hand the properties that I purchased as investments in FL have been paying a monthly for years with only a couple of months vacant.

    My advise would be to use your cash on SFH, away from the coast (my place got hit by three hurricans in 2005) these purchases will be great experience, pay the rents in to the bank in Miami which you think you would have a chance of getting a mortgage for your beachfront condo.

    In six months you could buy four or five SFH with your 250K earning you $5,000 a month gross

    There is a British expat  forum that has been a great help to me over the years,  members are very friendly and would be happy to help you with any day to day issues in Florida, e.g driving licences! Most members are fellow brits who have moved to the sunshine state, can't for the life of me think why they would do such a thing :-)

    http://www.thefloridaforums.com/forum/index.php

    I love your posts, I log on most days to see what you are up to.

    Gary

    Profile photo of ZitaZita
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    @zita
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 11

    Thank you to Steve & Pat for your prompt responses!

    Re: HSBC Bank types. After speaking in person to a Bank representative, he stated that The Premier Account does require $200,000 deposit, however I will follow this up. If perhaps it was required as an inital deposit and then later withdrawled, then your advice to then downgrade the Bank Account would work, but if my memory serves me well, not only did they require the $200K deposit, they also require the it to remain in the account. Again, I will indeed follow this up!

    The set back with wiring money from Australia to Miami is supose I'm wiring $50,000. With the 'Standard' Bank Account, the max you can withdrawl from an ATM is $400 daily (and the standard bank accounrt does not recognise you in Miamia). We are planning to travel for 15 days… It is not enough time to withdrawl the required cash and it  could potentially cost us missing out on a place if we don't have the funds available immediatly. I think you are right Steve, I will now investigate the idea of opening an account when we get there, so long as you arent required to do this in your home country first…

    Pat, this sounds like the way to go, i'll be visiting the closest ANZ tomorrow to follow up. I suppose again, not having the cash at hand for example at an auction, could cause us to miss out, but with 8-10 days to withdrawl it may just work. Thank you for that, I will keep you posted.

    Miami has been on my brain for weeks and months now and this forum has been such a fantastic way of staying on the game, with everyone contributing advice, support and feedback. Its funny when you discuss the idea of investing in Miami 'socially', the sceptisicm, the negativity and the naivity that so many people have towards the topic is amazing (despite thier lack of knowledge or research they all seem to have a preset mindset). I've had a variety of reponses when I raise the topic, most to which have been negative. Still, thats why the minority of people are fulfilling thier life's potential while the majority continue on with thier 'playing it safe' 9-5 jobs. No thanks!

    All the best to everyone and thanking you all for your great blogs!

    Profile photo of white_goodmanwhite_goodman
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    @white_goodman
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    Post Count: 67
    British Buyer wrote:
    TO WHITE_GOODMAN

    I wish I'd studied what you did.  Perpahs I'd be a Wall Street trader.  No, better yet, I could be a Shanghai trader, since that's where all the action is headed.

    What's your view on the Aus property market?  Bubbling, or sustainable due to the Chinese influence?

    Aus property market is a tough one, depends on state to state generally..

    Darwins going through a bit of a purple patch cos of govt and resources contracts, even was seeing growth during GFC. Sydney despite how expensive property is will still have a certain level of demand, one because council and govt are pretty tight on land release to reduce urban sprawl, plus banks are known to require developers a significant pre-com % before work begins. Qld and WA are having a minor correction due to an oversupply (basically all the developers were seeing record demand and growth in resi and specifically commercial – Perth were lowest vacancy in the WORLD tehn decided to all build not realising theres a time lag between start and finish and the market went from famine to buffet of properties). Melbourne im not too familiar, and im not to aware on Adeliade resi but their commercial should be booming in next few years with a lot of resource/mining companies moving there as mining projects take shape. Adelaide was the second best performing market as a whole during GFC, behind Darwin.

    My opinion on Sydney specifically is that we will probably see a lull or chop in capital gains growth across the board for a few years as wages growth should outpace property growth. We need to increase affordability as the ratio of median income: median household is circa 8 or 9 to 1, where as a rule f thumb or sweet spot is approx 3 or 4 to 1, where US is now if im not mistaken.

    But Sydney should be on another wave of boom, specifically closer to the city as the 2020 metro plan by state govt for future infrastructure has basically forecasted population growth half of what reality will be, so places closer to the city with stronger infrastructure in place should win out. Over the next 5 years I could see inflation creeping in mainly due to mining/resources, its been listed as a concern in the current RBA meeting minutes. What this means is that IR will be lifted to counteract, however eastern states like NSW and VIC who have no connection with mining will be paying for inflation from resource states through higher IR, could provide a little catalyst for a brief correction, however not major, as our lending practices, land release levels and relatively good monetary policy should avoid a GFC like correction, worst case scenario I would say 20% downside.

    Then again forecasting is a mugs game and anything can happen in the future, negative gearing or other tax  changes could provide a significant correction. Thats just my opinion, beauty of which i can change it with any further economic developments, im not married to my current opinion.

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
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    gmproperty wrote:
    Hi Steve,

    Each time I travel over to Florida for any length of time I renew my FLdriving licence, but they only renew it for three months at a time as I travel on the visa waiver program. I have a car and a pick up here which are both insured with Geico. I always go to Driving Licence offices in person and have never had a problem getting a licence.
     
    I also believe each state has their own driving licence, so if FL wont let you take a test, maybe travel to Georgia?

    I am currently in Atlanta closing on two REO, I understand your frustrations, the two I am closing on I first looked at 6 weeks ago. 

    Don't lose too much sleep if you don't purchase a Property for yourself to live in, I purchased a "holiday home" north of Miami in a place called Melbourne Beach. I purchased it in 2004, and if you total the amount of time myself and my family have stayed there it only amounts to a few months. So financially speaking its just been a liability. On the other hand the properties that I purchased as investments in FL have been paying a monthly for years with only a couple of months vacant.

    My advise would be to use your cash on SFH, away from the coast (my place got hit by three hurricans in 2005) these purchases will be great experience, pay the rents in to the bank in Miami which you think you would have a chance of getting a mortgage for your beachfront condo.

    In six months you could buy four or five SFH with your 250K earning you $5,000 a month gross

    There is a British expat  forum that has been a great help to me over the years,  members are very friendly and would be happy to help you with any day to day issues in Florida, e.g driving licences! Most members are fellow brits who have moved to the sunshine state, can't for the life of me think why they would do such a thing :-)

    http://www.thefloridaforums.com/forum/index.php

    I love your posts, I log on most days to see what you are up to.

    Gary

    HI GARY

    I just joined The Florida Forum and requested info about driver's licenses and auto insurance.  I also spent half an hour reading other posts about how to get permanent residency, which I'll copy at the end of this post in case anyone is wondering how they can stay here permanently.  I can't imagine myself ever wanting to stay more than a few months at a time, but the thought has crossed my mind that when my kids need to attend elementary school I may put them in a school here.

    Which brings me to the topic of why I'm trying so desperately hard to get a place right up against Miami Beach.  The best schools in Miami are all along the beach, whereas if you buy further inland your kids might end up going to school wid all da udder brudders in da 'Hood.  Now don't get me wrong: I'm no racist, and my kids are mixed (European/Asian), but I don't want them mainlining before they get to high school.

    I took a look at Melbourne Beach on Trulia and Google.  It looks similar (geographically) to Miami Beach.  How much do SFH's go for just a few blocks from the beach?

    Here's the info on US residency:

    If only it was that easy as just filling in forms like it is in Canada and they look at what you have to offer, add up your points and say yes or no.  Unfortunately it isnt.  You need a basis for immigration to the US.  Here are the main ones.

    L 1 visa -you must have a business in the UK or have been employed as a manager of a business for at least one year in the last three years  and that business must transfer you out to its subsidiary or affiliate in the US.

    E 2 visa – requires that you have made a substantial investment in a US business, generally you need $100,000 plus to buy one,  though people have got through with less as start ups or semi start ups.  This is however a renewable visa but does not lead to permanent status.

    Work visa – you need to find a job where the employer will sponsor you for either H1B or  green card.   H1B either needs a degree or 12 years experience.      The jobs you have would not appear on the face of it to be the sort where you would be able to get sponsorship. Generally employers are only willing to sponsor where they need expertise from abroad that they cannot find in a US applicant.

    EB-5  You need to have a spare $500000 to invest in a scheme in an area of low employment or a rural area of the US or in a run down business.

    Diversity lottery —  Lottery for a green card,  people born in England, Wales and Scotland cant enter unless they have a parent born abroad, people born in Ireland can apply. 

    Family sponsorship – only works if you have close family who are US citizens or in some instances permanent residents.

    The immigration process takes a long time and in many cases, involves a substantial investment within the US which can be lost.  To be frank there are easier places to emigrate to!     If you still wish to go ahead, pick your basis of immigration and work towards this.  For example for E-2 most people need to sell their house to raise the capital to make the investment.   Dont hesitate to ask any questions.

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
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    Zita wrote:
    Thank you to Steve & Pat for your prompt responses!

    Re: HSBC Bank types. After speaking in person to a Bank representative, he stated that The Premier Account does require $200,000 deposit, however I will follow this up. If perhaps it was required as an inital deposit and then later withdrawled, then your advice to then downgrade the Bank Account would work, but if my memory serves me well, not only did they require the $200K deposit, they also require the it to remain in the account. Again, I will indeed follow this up!

    The set back with wiring money from Australia to Miami is supose I'm wiring $50,000. With the 'Standard' Bank Account, the max you can withdrawl from an ATM is $400 daily (and the standard bank accounrt does not recognise you in Miamia). We are planning to travel for 15 days… It is not enough time to withdrawl the required cash and it  could potentially cost us missing out on a place if we don't have the funds available immediatly. I think you are right Steve, I will now investigate the idea of opening an account when we get there, so long as you arent required to do this in your home country first…

    Pat, this sounds like the way to go, i'll be visiting the closest ANZ tomorrow to follow up. I suppose again, not having the cash at hand for example at an auction, could cause us to miss out, but with 8-10 days to withdrawl it may just work. Thank you for that, I will keep you posted.

    Miami has been on my brain for weeks and months now and this forum has been such a fantastic way of staying on the game, with everyone contributing advice, support and feedback. Its funny when you discuss the idea of investing in Miami 'socially', the sceptisicm, the negativity and the naivity that so many people have towards the topic is amazing (despite thier lack of knowledge or research they all seem to have a preset mindset). I've had a variety of reponses when I raise the topic, most to which have been negative. Still, thats why the minority of people are fulfilling thier life's potential while the majority continue on with thier 'playing it safe' 9-5 jobs. No thanks!

    All the best to everyone and thanking you all for your great blogs!

    Hi Zita

    I'm very certain that if I'd opened an HSBC Premier Account in either Hong Kong or China they would not have required that I deposit any money.  I phoned up several times and checked on this.  They said that I must just deposit the money whenever I was ready.  I asked what would happen if I didn't.  They said that after 3 months they'd figure out my 3 month average, and if it was less than $100K I'd be charged the $50 fine for each month.

    But if you're not intending to buy for up to $150K then don't bother going the Premier route.

    If you're still wondering how to get your money to the US, just open a different  HSBC account (the one a notch below Premier).  I don't remember what it's called, but it differs very little from the Premier except that they won't offer you a mortgage (and there's no penalty for not keeping a certain amount of money in it).  What they will offer you is the ability to go to an HSBC in Miami and open an account there, and have the money TT'd from your overseas HSBC account to your Miami account.  I can't remember the exact cost, but it was small (maybe $20).

    Also, I don't think you will be buying any properties at auction.  It is too dangerous, since you have no idea what liens are awaiting you on the property.  For example, the property may be worth $100K, and you get it for 50K at the courthouse auction, but you didn't know that the old owner took out a second mortgage on it for 90K, which you now need to pay (the liens follows the property, not the person who borrowed the money and ran off with it).  So you'll end up paying $140K for a $100K property.

    The reason people are more confident when buying REO's from the bank is that 2 liens searches get done, the first by the bank before they put it on the market, and the second by you during the inspection period.

    However, there are people who buy properties at auction on the courthouse steps, but they're either gamblers or  they're professionals, meaning they know how to check with about 95% certainty how many liens there are on a property being auctioned.

    good luck
    Steve

    Profile photo of British BuyerBritish Buyer
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    [/quote]

    Aus property market is a tough one, depends on state to state generally..

    Darwins going through a bit of a purple patch cos of govt and resources contracts, even was seeing growth during GFC. Sydney despite how expensive property is will still have a certain level of demand, one because council and govt are pretty tight on land release to reduce urban sprawl, plus banks are known to require developers a significant pre-com % before work begins. Qld and WA are having a minor correction due to an oversupply (basically all the developers were seeing record demand and growth in resi and specifically commercial – Perth were lowest vacancy in the WORLD tehn decided to all build not realising theres a time lag between start and finish and the market went from famine to buffet of properties). Melbourne im not too familiar, and im not to aware on Adeliade resi but their commercial should be booming in next few years with a lot of resource/mining companies moving there as mining projects take shape. Adelaide was the second best performing market as a whole during GFC, behind Darwin.

    My opinion on Sydney specifically is that we will probably see a lull or chop in capital gains growth across the board for a few years as wages growth should outpace property growth. We need to increase affordability as the ratio of median income: median household is circa 8 or 9 to 1, where as a rule f thumb or sweet spot is approx 3 or 4 to 1, where US is now if im not mistaken.

    But Sydney should be on another wave of boom, specifically closer to the city as the 2020 metro plan by state govt for future infrastructure has basically forecasted population growth half of what reality will be, so places closer to the city with stronger infrastructure in place should win out. Over the next 5 years I could see inflation creeping in mainly due to mining/resources, its been listed as a concern in the current RBA meeting minutes. What this means is that IR will be lifted to counteract, however eastern states like NSW and VIC who have no connection with mining will be paying for inflation from resource states through higher IR, could provide a little catalyst for a brief correction, however not major, as our lending practices, land release levels and relatively good monetary policy should avoid a GFC like correction, worst case scenario I would say 20% downside.

    Then again forecasting is a mugs game and anything can happen in the future, negative gearing or other tax  changes could provide a significant correction. Thats just my opinion, beauty of which i can change it with any further economic developments, im not married to my current opinion.
    [/quote]

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts on  the Aus property market with everyone.  You have some sound insights, which Aus buyers can use when weighing up the US vs. Aus market.

    Your predictions on the Sydney property market are similar to most pundits predictions of the Shanghai market: too expensive, yet likely to get even more so, due simply to pure economic muscle (with strong infrastructure being the backbone).

    One difference between Shanghai and Sydney is that it in the former it takes 18 years of household income to buy an average property (which is considered to be a 2 bedroom/1 bathroom apartment), whereas in Sydney you only need 8 years (your stats) and in Miami less than 4 years!

    Profile photo of gmpropertygmproperty
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    Steve,

    It goes without saying there are some fantastic deals at the moment in my area, unfortunately I purchased mine close to the top of the market at 320K, it's probably only worth 200 now, still I'am not complaining because I am getting some great deals as a result.

    When I purchased the house we were hoping to emigrate , however my mother in law became terminaly ill within weeks of my EB5 visa coming through.

    One of the reasons I choose the area was the fact that the schools had fantastic reviews, I am told this is due to the town being very close to the space centre and it's very intelligent employees.

    My house is on the barrier island between the Atlantic and the lagoon, minutes walk from either, I have a kayak and I regularly paddle on the lagoon and nearly always see manatee and dolphins. The Zip code is 32903, there are some good street view images on google earth.

    If your interested In looking at some property in the area I can put you in touch who assisted me with my purchase.

    Gary

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