No Housing Bubble in Australia…is there?

LOOOOL what i see here is investors who purchased properties in the last 10 years. The last 10 years have been unprecedented, they will not happen again for another 20 yers or more. The reason for this is because prices of properties compared to peoples earnings are almost double what they should be so people can not afford to buy. Further more if people arent buying then developers arent building thus a huge proportion of the working class will not have funds to support themselves so how will they be able to buy property. The government will not be introducing any more housing stimulus because their objective now is to bring the housing prices to a realistic level. Another factor is immigration has just been cut to 1/3 of the previous lvls so that around 200k less people entering australia and less properties needed. Everything is pointing to a downturn so anyone who thnks otherwise are just making the same mistakes that stock market investors made when all the signs where there in 2006-07 that the market would crash but still thought it would keep going up. I dont bleive prices will come down %40 but i do beleive they will come down around %20 and then stagnate for a few more years until the earnings to price ratio lvl out to an affordable lvl.  If i had bought property in the last 2-3 years i would sell now and place my money into a term deposit for 2-3 years but if i had bought 7-8 years ago i would hold it becauase more than likely ur all ready in positive guearing and u can afford to sit and wait.

Couple of points. Immigration has NOT been cut to 1/3 of the level. Yet. It is lower that previous years by a considerable amount but we haven't shut the gate as a nation yet. Who is to say that if re-elected JG won't reneg on her promises and open the gate again. Australia has been built on the back of immigration and any government who slashed immigration levels to record lows would be shooting themselves in the foot.

As for the Gold Coast. This market has suffered huge oversupply for a long period of time. It is a buyers market. There are a lot of the same type of dwelling available. So values would be down.

As for major regional centres their time is here soon. Time to buy. Perth will be on it's way soon enough maybe late next year or early 2012. Sydney will be the dark horse coming into the new year. Qld will stay down for a little while yet.

In you posts you write "If I had bought property" several times. If you had bought property and were an unemotional investor you would weigh up how the current market where your property was was performing.

I will be building as soon as DA available. As long as there are buyers I will build.

The sky is not falling.

D

Cool….

Well, I'll be cashed up quite soon and ready to rampage my way through the forthcoming buyers market.

This will sort the wheat from the investing chaff. In another 10 years we will hear the cattle call…." If only I bought then….how was I to know it was going to go back up….?"

baa baa black sheep have you any investment properties? Yes sir, yes sir, 95% full. One for the master and one for the dame and one for the mortgagee auction just down the lane.

Any investor who is not prepared to ride out the storm through lower leveraging, selling unsustainable or under performing assets and spreading risk through diversification will get burnt.

Spare a thought for the mums and dads who will see their "guaranteed" super wash away with the tide of speculation.

D

Bears are nice, they just want to cuddle bulls – hence my avatar.

Listings are up 50% in a lot of QLD. Perth and WA are rising fast also. Either of those states will be places for bearish bargains in a year or so – so long as the government doesn't re-stimulate the industry with some new grant types, further PI tax cuts or rental subsidies.

Hi Guys,
My first post so please be nice!
I am new to the property investing game, and am still to purchase. But I can't quite figure it out….
I have read and researched every thing possible about property investing for over 2 years…and as much as I would like to purchase an investment property, everything I have learnt is saying NO! Don't Buy! This is a bubble about to burst!
Have you property investors got balls of steel, or have you simply forgotten the basic fundamentals of property investing?

For instance:
Never follow the crowd.
The ATO reports that 1 in every 7 taxpayers are property investors. Sounds bloody crowded to me!

Buy positive geared property.
Yeah right. In today's market? Maybe in Muckinbudin or Meekatharra?

Buy in a growth area.
I'm sorry, but it looks like the beanstalk has already grown, and I think Jack is about to swing the axe.

Tell me something: I can understand current property investors will hold onto their properties during a downturn/price plateau…but they won't be increasing their holdings during this phase, not only because they don't want to, but also because they can't refinance through increased equity…and 1st homebuyers aren't buying….and upgraders can't sell so can't upgrade…and reinstated rules are slowing overseas property investors…

so who the hell is going to buy?
I smell a correction

hey DWolfe,

Surely researching a 400k investment for 2 years is prudent?

Fools rush in.

It isn't that there are so many honest to goodness PIs out there, it's just that so many Australians are NG now. I plan to use NG to pay of the house I want to live in and don't give a damn about being a PI – it's just the best way to do it in this country now.

Work and rent near a city that provides good income, buy a remote coastal or otherwise affordable property that you live in for 6 months to maximise all FHB savings accounts, stamp duty reductions and grants then move out and NG the place whilst renting back in the city that provides good income. Use NG to pay of the loan quick smart and get <moderator: delete obscenity> out of the city before it implodes under the miss management that all our cities currently suffer. There are a lot of others employing a similar strategy and a lot of last years FHBs that have had to put their places on the rental market because they cant afford the loans.

So, PIs aren't growing on mass but NG is. Here's the thing, how much of Australia's population can NG before it starts hurting the taxation bottom line for the country?

DWolfe, why have I spent two years researching?
Because two years ago when I was 18 years old and still on apprentice wages I don't think diving into property "speculation" would have been appropriate.
…and two years of researching is telling me that 6.51% in the bank is probably the best bet at the moment in this uncertain market.
Property might not dive, it might stay stable, but you would have to have rocks in your head if you think it can continue to climb upwards like it has over the last few years.

But wait, I just read in Saturdays West Australian that I should buy now or else I will be locked out of the property market forever! Sorry but two years of research is enough to know how to seperate the BS from the facts.

Work Smart, Not Hard

Hi Mick,

As a 20 year old I think you are on track.

What areas of the market are you researching?

DW lighten up the guy is a young person in a very interesting period of his life, times are changing and so is the market.

3 years ago we were in boom today it is more gloomy, deals are out there and we are all passionate to become self made multimillionaire in real estate.

Mick i have lots of FREE stuff on my web site, please down load it and give it to your friends you have a long life ahead of you good luck.

My twin girls are 16 and I have one passive income property for them each to get them started really early in life.

Now I am teaching them financial IQ intelligence.

Philip Sigglekow
LREA author

Philip Sigglekow
LREA author

Don't you mean Baaaaa?

Hey everyone.

Look anyone that says we arent heading for some really tuff times is only kidding themselves. Yes u can still find some bargains out there like catalyst did but they are far and few between. If u can find a bargain with good rent returns then take it, only an idiot wouldnt take it regardless of world conditions. Dont buy it expecting to make a profit on a quick resale because that wont happen for a while. Now its only a matter of yields.  My mother bought a property 4 years ago on the gold coast and the price hasnt moved in 4 years. Now to top things off the tennants want to negotiate the rent so she is being forced to accpet less return even though interest rates are going up. She isnt in a good position and she isnt alone in this scenario. From my understanding is that the gold coast is going to suffer alot from an oversupply, lack of jobs and high prices.   I remember when i first moved up to the gold coast in 2000. We had alot of people move up those first few years but 6 months after moving up they moved back to sydney or melbourne because they couldnt find good work. Some even purchased properties because it was so cheap compared to sydney or melbourne but in the end they where either forced to sell for a lower price or the bank repossed the properties and sold it at cost price. I know because a friend bought 2 or 3 from banks at low prices. I dont have any properties because by the time i earned enough to actually think about purchasing the prices where at all time highs so i hesitated now ive got alot more liquidity to play with so ill be looking for bargains when they come. Meanwhile im earning 6.51% ( UBANK) on my money.