All Topics / General Property / Property Bubble ?? lots of differing opinions out there.

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  • Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    sonyasal wrote:
    Hey, come to regional areas, my block is 975sqm, and don't i know it when i have to mow the lawn!!! I live 7 minutes from work 3 minutes for two shopping malls, cinema, bowling alley, numerous restaurants and free parking!

    Haha, I bet you wish there were a couple of sheep you could rent to clean up all the green waste in your backyard!

    I think your situation is a fine example of how the government could move forward in their bid to cool the market, or prevent a bubble from developing: they need to create mini-hubs in multiple areas, bring the infrastructure there, and convince people to move. There's obviously heaps of land in Australia, but the difficulty as always would be convincing people to move and fill those spots.

    Profile photo of sonyasalsonyasal
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    My brother and brother in law both have their own businesses, one in IT and the other in computerised irrigation systems. They live here and travel both intrastate and interstate. My brother just recetnly travelled to the NT to install some systems, we live in NSW. One of the benfits of today's technology is that they can run their businesses quite effectively from here, even monitoring systems that they have installed remotely

    Their set up costs, rent etc are heaps cheaper here than what they would be in any major city..

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    sonyasal wrote:
    Their set up costs, rent etc are heaps cheaper here than what they would be in any major city..

    Which is probably why people don't understand why businesses need to have their hub in the heart of a CBD when a small branch there would do. Some businesses however, appreciably will take some effort to get working in a rural setting. For example, veterinary clinics. They have difficulty finding new grads willing to work for them, and most invariably work for a year or two and transfer to something else in the city or otherwise a surrounding suburb.

    Rural clinics may pay well, but they can't keep their vets. This is just speaking from personal experience in the business.

    Profile photo of god_of_moneygod_of_money
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    It is not only vets… the doctors as well… not many doctors are willing to go to rural.. even regional city…

    Profile photo of bardonbardon
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    wealth4life.com wrote:

    Australia's property bubble: it's here


    w4l you never give up on the bubble do you ?

    sorry to say its not here though

    I dont see creative finance, new loan products, investors piling in, 100% loans, quite the opposite in fact

    I dont see finance figures exceeding price growth, so not debt fuelled either

    But I never had the sixth sense either you know the one

    I See Bubbles

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    If i didnt buy when W4L suggested a bubble was comming earlier. I would have missed out on the growth of the property that i have now expierienced. Infact it would have to drop 15% to get close to where this bubble was meant to burst. Thank god i did what i wanted.

    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    Melbourne is one big bubble full of people willing to buy anything at any price. well it started off as a bubble now has become a mini boom. What next? Headlines with "the boom is here". The media, RBA and politicians will see what they want and will do what they want.

    We as investors get to go in and make money by using our brains and our actions. I think people who are doing skinny deals and a lot of them, will be the ones who are pushed out rather than FHBs. Build in a good margin, then if the price drops 5 or 10% who cares. If the price drops more the country will be stuffed and hell would have frozen over. FHB will stick like glue to the houses which they live in. They will quit smoking, drinking, buying clothes and all that which is why property is up and retail is down.

    No bubble here. Only people waving cheque books at anyone with a letterbox! Might have to take some popcorn to some auctions on the weekend.

    By the way how is everyone in Perth going? Nice and slow over there pre-lunacy which will come in the next year or so? Everyone is very busy looking this side of the country.

    D

    DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
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    Profile photo of Nathan BirchNathan Birch
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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58r0DkJLf6g&feature=player_embedded

    We are placed different to the rest of the world, Margie Baldock says it well on this video though.

    Profile photo of djjkdjjk
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    Agree that Sydney prices are becoming ridiculous. A mate of mine recently bid on a 1 bedroom apmt in Potts Point (no views or Car park)  and it went for 700k.  When prices of a 1 bedder are 10 times the average wage its time to consider selling imo. I know there is still strong demand and limited supply blah blah blah but its becoming a serious problem.  The only thing holding up this market is the willingness of buyers to pay these prices. 

    When sentiments change – prices will drop (aka London, UK)….

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    DWolfe wrote:
    By the way how is everyone in Perth going? Nice and slow over there pre-lunacy which will come in the next year or so? Everyone is very busy looking this side of the country.

    D

    Hey D, how about Adelaide? Got a cousin that studies there and was looking briefly to see if anything was affordable.

    The bubble is a strange thing. Honestly I wish the damn thing would blow wide open already, then I'd be inhaling huge blocks of land and building units on top of them! Hahaha!

    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    Mate I think the wide open part is sooo not going to happen. I don't want to scream "run, buy anything you can OMG hurry", but if you can snare a bargain or two now, better to do that than wait for something which may not happen. And you are telling me about the blocks, I'd love some cheapies but ain't gunna happen my friend .

    I don't know about Adelaide. I had a quick look but I need to be in the same state as anything we develop at the moment (will grow out of that eventually, or move :) I think you can pick up some goodies if you are a good shopper! I like QLD but can't get up there anytime soon. This is the problem with sicking to Vic you are stuck with what you can get, you have to be extra choosy because of the inflated prices and expectations of vendors.

    If I can pick up something in Perth I will even just to sit on. Still probably a little way off :)

    D

    DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
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    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    The Age 13/4/10

     

    I don't print the news I just pass it on … the question is not realestate but what part of real estate do you invest in to get the best returns ROI – it is going to be a long road to wait till you double your money.

     

    BUYERS are deserting the Sydney property market at the rate of 1000 a month, causing real estate professionals to predict an ''exhausted market'' with prices plateauing for the rest of the year.

    High auction clearance rates and record prices notwithstanding, official figures show the number of loans to buy houses in NSW slipped from 19,600 in September to just 14,300 in February after sliding in each of the past five months.

    The NSW slide of 27 per cent is worse than in all states but South Australia. Housing loans in Victoria slid the least, by a seasonally-adjusted 12 per cent. ''This will lead to a slowing of price growth, no question about it,'' the national president of the Real Estate Institute, David Airey, said. ''The housing market moves slowly. Unlike the stockmarket it doesn't jump around on a daily or even weekly basis.

    Graph

    ''These things take six to nine months to filter through, but we will look back on the March quarter and say it was pretty buoyant, we will look back on June and say it was more normal, and we will look back on September and December and see the combined effects of interest rates and simply an exhausted market.''

    Bureau of Statistics figures show February was the worst for home loans since 2001. Nationwide just 2174 people borrowed to buy new homes, a figure that also reflects the low number of new homes on offer.

    In February just 2293 NSW first-home buyers took out loans, down from 5941 in July, before the phase-out of the First Home Owners Boost and the Reserve Bank's string of interest rate increases.

    "First home buyers are leaving the market and there is no evidence that owner occupiers and investors are replacing them in sufficient numbers,'' the Housing Industry Association economist Harley Dale said.

    ''The prospects for a second-stage building recovery are diminishing amid rising interest rates, lack of available credit, and persistently high supply barriers to new housing.''

    An economist for ICAP Securities, Adam Carr, said the figures should make the Reserve Bank reconsider the pace of its rate rises. ''House credit growth is not, as the bank would have us believe, solid. That is simply not true and, more to the point, the bank has said previously that house price growth isn't a problem unless accompanied by a build-up in leverage. This argues for a softer rate hike touch.''

    RP Data figures show Sydney prices are climbing at an annual pace of 12 per cent compared to 19 per cent in Melbourne.

    ''But as sure as the sun comes up tomorrow we won't have that kind of extraordinary growth continuing,'' Mr Airey said.

    ''If we did, nobody would be able to afford to buy property. Plenty of people smarter than me will say Melbourne will be the first to slow, but they've been wrong before. Sydney has a way to go to catch up so its prices might continue to climb for longer.''

    The latest Westpac Melbourne Institute survey found a fall in the number of people believing that ''now is a good time to buy a dwelling''. The proportion agreeing slid from 62 per cent in December to 42 per cent in March. Those believing the wisest use for savings was ''paying down debt'' climbed to 27 per cent.

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Dear Devo darling you miss understand me,

    I bought a golden oldie in warrawee in 2008 December for $701,000.00 and have approved plans for a 40 m/2 house – I have been offered $950,000.00 as it is which is a $250,000.00 gain in less than 15 months.

    My team is very active in real estate and our nett target is always one million a year.

    I provide news and information to balance out all the BS and to get the message out that real estate needs intelligence applied with correct decision making to make perfect decisions.

    Danielle

    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    My one question for this is,

    Do foreign investors bring their own money over or do they buy with funds borrowed from Australian banks?

    If anyone can tell me the answer to this I think we will all know the pretty quick answer to the are prices going to drop question (Melbourne).

    Melbourne will slow I think but new dwellings in good areas will keep selling as will areas near unis, or train stations or good shopping. It is supply and demand. Not much supply in some areas. Good investors with a plan can make money anywhere.

    And if it slows too much then we all jump ship to Adelaide. I've heard there is a lot of churches there….

    D

    DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
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    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    Hey Wealth,

    Is that 1 mil profit or in real estate purchased/

    D

    DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
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    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    wealth4life.com wrote:

    The latest Westpac Melbourne Institute survey found a fall in the number of people believing that ''now is a good time to buy a dwelling''. The proportion agreeing slid from 62 per cent in December to 42 per cent in March. Those believing the wisest use for savings was ''paying down debt'' climbed to 27 per cent.

    I think we've all read the comment along the lines of, 'Herd instinct is wrong'. If that's the case, is it actually becoming a better time to buy now because the proportion of people who think this way is actually diminishing? Case in point. Interest rates. When interest rates were high, a higher proportion of people were choosing to fix. And at their all time lows, the proportion of people choosing to fix was also similarly very low.

    Or, let's look at the share market. When every Tom, Dick and Harry and their aunts and uncles were sinking cash down to their pennies into the market, that was actually the best time to get out. It was pre-GFC.

    One thing is for sure. When the market does stabilize or even crash, I'll see plenty of opportunities out there for the picking. There would be many others with a similar frame of mind I suspect, just waiting on the sidelines and waiting to pounce at the right moment, pick of the weaklings and have a fantastic feast.

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    DWolfe wrote:
    My one question for this is,

    Do foreign investors bring their own money over or do they buy with funds borrowed from Australian banks?

    Well I couldn't answer that with any degree of certainty. But based on what I've read at least, I'd be betting that foreign investors are indeed bringing over their own money, or otherwise getting 'cheap credit', as it is so often referred to in the newspapers, to buy property.

    This is partly why I feel that it is uncalled for to be raising interest rates for the sake of controlling property prices. They could raise it to 12% and nice properties will still sell. Why? Because firstly, quality property is always quality property. Overseas investors know how to buy in desirable areas, not mortgage belts. Secondly, there will always be some foreign investor out there looking at property here and considering it to be cheap compared to where they're from. Thirdly, 'cheap credit'. Interest rates elsewhere are low compared to that here, which in fact looks sky-high.

    I've seen this in Singapore: a crappy little two-storey side terrace (mostly 99 year lease) on 250sqm of land goes for somewhere between $1.2-1.5mil. A government subsidised apartment with only a 99 year lease (aka run of the mill 'shoebox') goes for around $200K. Here, $1.5mil will get you THREE substantial freehold 3BR/1bath houses on 700-800sqm of land (possibly development potential) and maybe still have cash left over. In comparison, doesn't Australia then look cheap to someone coming from a place like that?

    Profile photo of god_of_moneygod_of_money
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    There were 359 residential properties listed for auction in Sydney on the weekend with more than 71 per cent selling on the day representing another good week of auction results.

    In Melbourne there were 495 properties put up for auction with 78 per cent producing a sale. In Adelaide there were 49 auctions with 57 per cent properties listed selling on the day. In Brisbane, 65 properties were listed for auction with 27 per cent selling

    So… What CRASH!!!!

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    wealth4life.com wrote:
    Dear Devo darling you miss understand me,

    I bought a golden oldie in warrawee in 2008 December for $701,000.00 and have approved plans for a 40 m/2 house – I have been offered $950,000.00 as it is which is a $250,000.00 gain in less than 15 months.

    My team is very active in real estate and our nett target is always one million a year.

    I provide news and information to balance out all the BS and to get the message out that real estate needs intelligence applied with correct decision making to make perfect decisions.

    Danielle

    Danielle my precious i never questioned the size of your portfolio i am just saying that in the spirit of a famous movie ,you seem to have an unhealthy facination with the dark side. I agree you need a balanced argument and if you post in the interest of doing this then well done.But there is a constant theme and a constant moving goal post that gets a little tiring.But all in all i still like your posts. keeps everyone honest. Myself included.

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