- RHPlanningMember@rhplanningJoin Date: 2010Post Count: 46
There are no guarantees in life. Medina is one of the worst suburbs in Perth and if you paid over the top because you wanted to cash in on the boom like everyone else and reap the benefits but paid too much in the process, well then you have no choice but to accept the consequences. Having said that, I’m 100% sure that if the people who bought property in 2006/7 held their property for the long term and were sensible with their expenses, they would still make money.
As for the income point you mention, people who apply for finance are made aware they are taking on a commitment for 25+ years…. take responsibility.
Hi RH Planning
Can I add to my post?
In the context of the recent Australian Government stimulus package and the 125,000 first home owners who took up the boost package
Many at LVR's of 80%, 90% and many at 100%
The question I am raising is now that interest rates are going up many first home owners are struggling to pay their mortgage.
The honeymoon period of low introductory rates will be over 6-12 months time.
So in 12 months time when interest rates are much higher will it be default time?
In 12 months time how many of the 125,000 first home owners may be experiencing severe mortgage stress and have forced sales.
10% or 12,500
20% or 24,500
50% or 62,500?
Now whatever the effect property prices could be affected severely and the market value of your property could drop severely
Would that bother you?
Or would you try to protect your property value?
Of course it would depend on your best interests.
If you were involved in forced sales, bank fire sales, debt recovery, financial advice, real estate sales, property settlements/conveyancing or other services involved in property sales you might be motivated by this scenario.
What's your position on bank fire sales
Can you benefit financially from mortgage stress and forced sales?
JohnDWolfeParticipant@dwolfeJoin Date: 2009Post Count: 1,253
What is your motivation? Cautionary tale as to why not to invest in one particular suburb? Were the 125,000 first home buyers all in Medina? No? Oh were they spread across the country? Yes?
The poor first home buyers……yes poor them wanting to live in their own home. Must be pretty terrible to have their own place now instead never being able to buy their own home.
I too am wondering what your motivation is, John, and who you are. I see you haven't answered the question I raised on your original post.
Do you not want to answer the question? One moment you are introducing yourself as a newbie, the next you are launching long essays at us. Please tell us more about who you are and what you do for a living. Who do you work for? What do you sell? As you pointed out in your first post, sources of information can be tainted by their motivation. Forgive us for searching to understand yours.
I am a real estate researcher and write articles from time to time. Sometimes as a ghost writer. I enjoy research, analysis, interpretation and writing articles. I am based in Perth so hence my direct experience and knowledge of the Perth market. I have contributed articles to Aust Property Investor Magazine, other online publications and other investor associations.
My writing approach is sometimes commentary style, article style, blogging style or other. My content sometimes is a critical analysis of a subject matter and may offer a detailed interpretation. Hence the essay style. The subject matter may stimulate interest and debate which is the purpose of blogging . However the subject matter may not be appropriate for all forums and blogs because of the length of the commentary and the subject matter.
And no I have not invested in Medina and no I am not a first home owner. I do know people who have invested in Medina and I do know first home owners. Who does know a first home owner?
I apologise if any of your members felt challenged by any of my comments. My style of posting may not be appropriate for your forum
Would the quantitative research data below be of interest?
'Civil Property Possessions in WA'
The analysis of statistical data on the rate of civil property possession is very insightful for the public and for property owners. The majority of these matters relate to a mortgagee claiming delivery of possession and/or the payment of money secured by a mortgage.
These statistics are an indirect measure of community financial/mortgage stress in the context of macroeconomic factors like unemployment rates, interest rates, personal debt levels (credit cards, personal loans etc) and other factors.
In all states of Australia civil property possessions are easily measured and as an example we reviewed civil property possession in Western Australia over the last 10 years.
Of note is the high increase in property possessions since July 2008. By comparing the long term average to the quarterly results you can see the increase is 50% to 140% each quarter.
The statistics on Civil Property Possession Applications consist of any proceeding commenced in the Supreme Court where the plaintiff is seeking the possession of property. The majority of these matters relate to a mortgagee claiming delivery of possession and/or the payment of money secured by a mortgage.
With the rise of interest rates and mortgage stress it may herald another dip or lull in the WA market ahead. This may assist property investors understand the real estate cycle in Perth and WA. To understand the peak and troughs of the market. So looking at the information objectively it may be very useful for a property investor. It may reflect the financial status and health of WA property owners. This information may be valuable market intelligence.
Is this angle appealing to readers?
This information may help you understand the WA real estate cycle with quantitative market research and intelligence and not just an opinion.
If this type of quantitative research is not of interest or the other subject matter is not of interest I am happy not to contribute this content on the forum
Yes this is my name.
I have responded to your original question here https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/general-property/4330958?#comment-204442
What specific information are you interested in about drivers of growth?
Is the below of interest?
How does Australia rank in the global economy?
See some research below.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Information – look for Australia
- IMF Data Mapper GDP annual % change – look for Australia
- World Bank Data and statistics – look for Australia
- Principal Global Indicators
- Dunn and Bradstreet Australia
International Comparisons to Australia
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
- Australian Social Trends. See International Comparisons
- Key statistics housing, family, community and work. See International Comparisons Key Statistics on Australian social trends
- Or go direct to International comparisons key statistics
Reserve Bank of Australia – RBA graphs
- Graph 21: Unemployment Rates
- Graph 22: Dwelling Prices
- Graph 62: Household Assets and Net Worth
- Graph 64: Unemployment and Hours Worked
- Graph 65: Consumer Sentiment
- Graph 69: Loan Approvals for First-home Buyers
I help readers find information and they can conduct their own research and due diligence
They can satisfy their own questions and be informed via the process.
Is this of interest?
Thanks for answering the question about who you are, and for the further information you have provided in both threads.
I think that the information you are providing is certainly interesting, and I wish I had more time to spend following your links and considering the data for myself.
Personally I prefer to view the RE market, not only in its macroeconomic context, but in the context of the individual towns, suburbs, regions etc which I intend to invest in. Sweeping generalisations about the state of Australia's economy compared to other countries, and other macroeconomic indicators are useful, but thought needs to also be given to the invididual economy of each region. Mackay – mining, Townsville – defence, mining, health, uni, Sydney – corporate, Newcastle – steel and power etc etc.
As you are obviously knowledgeable about sources of information, what can you suggest to fullfill the need to investigate the microeconomic health of an individual region?
Sometimes, statistics are too retrospective. I think you mentioned somewhere that it is useful to look for trends, much like a stockmarket analyst would. Wouldn't it be good to have that sort of data available for real estate? Perhaps it is?
You are welcome
I believe most property buyers conduct their own research one way or another.
A good starting point is looking at the macroeconomics of the country
Hence looking at the big picture
Then without going into detail the buyer considering their own unique circumstances, their time, money, energy and personal preferences towards risk.
I say that in the context that statistically alot of buyers buy an investment property in their home town, because it is easier to inspect before the purchase. When they own it they can drive by or inspect easily. They only trust their own opinion and perhaps are uncomfortable with trusting a buyers agent or real estate agent etc
If they were buying a property in another location or another state. So this decision making comes down to education, experience, comfort and confidence.
So sometimes buyers might not look at the big picture state by state
Look at population growth and drivers of growth in each region and local government area
They may have a particular preference or focus on a particular region, LGA, town or suburb and for good reason usually.
However why not go thru the process of reviewing the population growth in each state, region and LGA
Could this guide a buyer to focus on specific high population growth areas?
Then analyse these areas with your own checklist of research and due diligence
So drill down your research step by step until you find the location that is most suited to your own unique criteria
The starting point is always dependant on the criteria set by the buyer?
Anyway here is some research links below to population growth maps state by state
It gives you the big picture and may help readers get a visual overview of high growth areas very quickly
There is more information to follow and yes there is alot of information that can be collated and overlaid.
It is just a matter of determing what data is useful and related.
got to go and may be able to post again on the weekend
See some of my research below
Population growth maps of Local Government Areas (LGA) 1997 to 2006
- See Local Government Maps – view a snapshot of population growth state wide. Find high, low and decline growth areas. See.
- Local Government Map – New South Wales
- Local Government Map – Northern Territory
- Local Government Map – Queensland
- Local Government Map – South Australia
- Local Government Map – Tasmania
- Local Government Map – Victoria
- Local Government Map – Western Australia
Historical growth statistics using 4 yearly ABS census data
- Census of Population and Housing: Basic Community Profile. click on 2001.0
- Recent 2006 Census Community Profiles by Location
- Free LGA snapshot from Informed Decisions
Historical growth combining all of ABS statistics
- Australian demographic statistics – click on 3101.0
- Demography news – click on 3106.0
- Migration – Overseas arrivals and departures – click on 3401.0
- Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories – click on 3201.0
Population forecast statistics from Government sources
- ABS population clock
- ABS Information Paper: Population Projections, Australia, New Format Time Series Spreadsheets, 2004 to 2101 – 3107.0.55.004
- ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 – 3222.01
- ABS Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2001 to 2026 – 3236.0
Population forecast statistics from commercial sources
- Informed Decisions forecast ID and Population Forecast
- See example of the City of Swan Population Forecast
I will try to answer your question on the weekend
That's great John. Thanks.
I think there are alot of investors, like me, who want to know more about a region but waste alot of time on Google trying to find useful, timely, objective data. We don't necessarily know how to access the information you are providing here, or what information to use, or how to use it. Especially when it comes to sophisticated use of statistics, like you said, overlaying and collating data – eg converting population growth data, buildings approvals data and no. of people per household data – we don't know where to start. Then the idea that again, the larger statistic might lead you one way, but more intricate consideration of the data might lead to a more specific investment decision (eg, a region might show strong population growth, and on that information an investor might go and buy a house there. More careful inspection of the data shows that the strongest area of population growth is in the age group 60 years plus, so another investor, using this information purchases an investment property with these peoples needs in mind. They have a stronger result, due to their more careful research.)
It's all about ROI, and in this case, the investment can often be your time.
John, you just about need your own thread with all of this links to information on them. It is a real education in where to get this stuff, what is available and how to use it.