Can anybody really predict the bottom?
With sooooo many different views lets start a list of all the great gurus and put their prediction on where the bottom is and when it will start to rise?
Name ……. Company …… email ……. prediction …….. Whos first?
D
wealth4life,
What no hits yet!!! hard to believe.By bottom I presume you mean the stock market?? or do you mean when will the Sydney or National house prices bottom?
Maybe you mean the superannuation bottom?
the bottom of the propertymarket will be when property prices dropped 50% from 2007 high prices.
when that is, noone can say. Depends how much money the government is going to spend delaying the inevitable.
Initially the bottom would have hit around 2009. The bailouts have now delayed that to mid 2010. Maybe some more bailouts or law changes will push it off or back. But 50% about what you will see the median drop.And trust me : This is a good thing, not a bad thing.
Everyone seems to think low houseprices are a bad thing : They're not, they are a good thing.
That's what I have been thinking, Why does everyone one this forum seem to think that a 50% would be terrible ? For me it presents huge opportunity's
Though I guess it will be bad for those people who are using equity and now have negative equity and those who have a bigger mortgage then what there house is worth.
Lucky for me I don't have any debt
hbbehrendorff wrote:That's what I have been thinking, Why does everyone one this forum seem to think that a 50% would be terrible ? For me it presents huge opportunity'sThough I guess it will be bad for those people who are using equity and now have negative equity and those who have a bigger mortgage then what there house is worth.
Lucky for me I don't have any debt
You are on a property forum where the majority of people would have one or more properties and you wonder why there is concern over dropping values ???? Not everyone on here is a bottom feeder.
I dont know how many people have debt, and what debt they have. I thought that seing this was a property forum that most people would NOT be in debt…
Debt???. Didnt say anything about that although without it you would struggle to build wealth. This has been proven many times over. Its just that its become a naughty word at the moment. This will change with time as it did in the past debt bubbles.
devo76 wrote:Debt???. Didnt say anything about that although without it you would struggle to build wealth. This has been proven many times over. Its just that its become a naughty word at the moment. This will change with time as it did in the past debt bubbles.This one will be worse… even you bullish proptimists must admit that something pretty mean is setting itself up this time.
As for the bottom – I hope it is no less than 3-4x average wage (entry level between 200&250K country wide) because if it gets lower then that the hurt will be too great. I also hope it comes around quickly, like America's did, because if it is too prolonged the job loss will really start to bite.
This is my hope, not a prediction, for the bottom. 30% of the 2007 peak (so around 20-25% off where we are now), within the next 6-18mths. Due to the next 10-15 years being boomer retirement and asset offloading in a down market, there shouldn't be another boom before 2020 – the boomers, it seems, boomed too early for their own retirements.
It's funny, this is the downturn I have been waiting for since the 80's but now it's here I hope it doesn't end up as bad as it could get. I am pretty sure that the US as we know it is dead, though.
hbbehrendorff u only write crap in the forum There seems to be nothing constructive about your post
ummester wrote:devo76 wrote:Debt???. Didnt say anything about that although without it you would struggle to build wealth. This has been proven many times over. Its just that its become a naughty word at the moment. This will change with time as it did in the past debt bubbles.This one will be worse… even you bullish proptimists must admit that something pretty mean is setting itself up this time.
As for the bottom – I hope it is no less than 3-4x average wage (entry level between 200&250K country wide) because if it gets lower then that the hurt will be too great. I also hope it comes around quickly, like America's did, because if it is too prolonged the job loss will really start to bite.
This is my hope, not a prediction, for the bottom. 30% of the 2007 peak (so around 20-25% off where we are now), within the next 6-18mths. Due to the next 10-15 years being boomer retirement and asset offloading in a down market, there shouldn't be another boom before 2020 – the boomers, it seems, boomed too early for their own retirements.
It's funny, this is the downturn I have been waiting for since the 80's but now it's here I hope it doesn't end up as bad as it could get. I am pretty sure that the US as we know it is dead, though.
Are you kidding me. You have been waiting for this boom since the 80's. ha ha ha. thats the funniest thing ever. Wow what a financial whizz. How much money could you have made. I my god im getting a stich from laughing. I gotta go. ha ha ha
They will be "ha ha ha" which a stich when they have to sell up there investment properties next year and sell there brand new SS for $20k
There investment properties are probably pos geared now anyway. As for the ones you could have bought in the 80's. I think they would be pos geared also.
devo76 wrote:Are you kidding me. You have been waiting for this boom since the 80's. ha ha ha. thats the funniest thing ever. Wow what a financial whizz. How much money could you have made. I my god im getting a stich from laughing. I gotta go. ha ha haYou know what I mean, I have been waiting for a downturn in capitalism as a whole and it is finally happening. Since the 80's greed has been rampant but it is on the mend.
Why would I be trying to make money if I am waiting for the whole process to change?
I get your point i just dont believe it is about to end. If you had got into the 80's greed you would have land,gold, etc all the things that apparently will always be in demand. This will pass just as all before it has.
If you are waiting for a change i feel you will have wasted your life.
I was watching an american economist on the business channel the other night who said that modern capitalism was now fundamentally changed – for good. Easy credit is over and with it so too will be societies based on consumption.
I'll check back in a few months, when this little crisis hasn't passed and see what you think then.
ummester wrote:I was watching an american economist on the business channel the other night who said that modern capitalism was now fundamentally changed – for good. Easy credit is over and with it so too will be societies based on consumption.I'll check back in a few months, when this little crisis hasn't passed and see what you think then.
For every economist that you show me to support your view. I will show you three that say this will pass then on we go again.
Next few months…..Dont care
next few years………..Care more
Next ten to 15 years…..This is my end goal.Sorry i am not going to spend all my time fixated on the what ifs. Im going to give it a go.Money still drives the world and as soon as they can the taps will be turned back on. May be some time off but it will happen
Well don't just blow hot steam, Start naming Economists !
"I was watching an american economist on the business channel the other night who said that modern capitalism was now fundamentally changed – for good. Easy credit is over and with it so too will be societies based on consumption."
I hope so too ummeister … Paying for other peoples consumer bought credit is bad for everyone concerned.
We need a better foundation for the system – otherwise all of our individual wealth creation is a waste of time and in danger.
What do you think financial independance will mean if our country becomes poor.
How would Australia be like to live in if things really turned bad?.
No one really wants that .
Consumers definately need to be protected from themselves. And society needs to be built on good basic economics.
And hopefully those of us that took advantage of the easiest credit conditions of all time and can hang on for the long term will live a bit better lives for the risk …. and within a country that improves it's overall wealth and quality of life over time.
I think thats a worthwhile goal for all.
….
my call:
The bottom has passed.
A flat period will ensue with a few up and down blips on the radar thanks to media sensationalsim.
The prediction is a slow start and then steady growth starting in 2 years
Then a period of wise direction and decisions due to the recent memory of this crash.
America will be treated like the greedy teenager it is.
Europes financial stability will be the rock.
Asias progress will be the growth driver.
New Government and Industry focus will be the key.
And if i am wrong ….
everyone loses.
A few weeks ago I said it was almost the bottom, and 2 days later it was. we are currently 15% above that level.
calling the bottom AFTER the event is easy & useless.
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