Forums / Community / Heads Up! / Arbitrage Sports betting

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  • Profile photo of mark76gmark76g
    Participant
    @mark76g
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 45

    Hi Terry,

    Im a profressional gambler
    I started off a few years ago as a card counter at blackjack but these days i play internet poker.
    I tried sports arbing about a year ago.

    There are plenty of arb programs you can buy for a low monthly subscription.
    I signed up to a uk based company called arb alarm. I think it was about $50 per month.

    The software constanly fed me trades and the I had to log into the two bookies and manually place them.

    I gave up after a month out of frustration. I made a small amount of money for a large amount of hours.

    Large arbs of greater than 5% tend to last less than a minute because there is so much auto software out there.
    So most arbs are about 1-2%.
    I had to open accounts with about 30 internet bookies and the logistics are a nightmare. Some places take a week to pay so afer you make your 1% that money is locked up for a week and cant be used else where.
    Some destroy you profits with withdrawal fees.
    And sometimes the browser freezes while you are in the middle of placing the second half of the arb leaving you with a naked position.

    Sports arbing is real but im guessing the company has worked out it will make more money by selling the software than by using it because of the logistical restrictions of moving large amounts of cash around quickly between the bookies.

    Hope this helps …

    Mark.

    Profile photo of WJ HookerWJ Hooker
    Participant
    @wj-hooker
    Join Date: 2007
    Post Count: 272

    wezwas,
                   Hi, it sounds like I touched a nerve with my posting. Sorry to upset you.
    I posted it to show that you don't have to pay for software to win at the races or any other betting, you just need to have a plan that will give a result in the end as long as you stick to it.
                   I didn't say it's what I do now.

    As C2 says , it a lot of work for a small result. Not worth it really, I make enough money with property thanks to worry about a few loose dollars here and there. I do not recommend anyone take up betting fulltime, I know one person who is $90,000 in debt with the bookies and is married with two kids and no house and a low paid job… this is where you can end up by betting and getting addicted…

    Profile photo of BootlaceBootlace
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    @bootlace
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 43

    WJ Hooker, with respect, you might want to research the term 'Martingale System' because this is effectively what your staking plan is.

    I do not profess to be a professional gambler, however i have considerable experience in the area of probability, expectation (negative and positive) mostly gleaned from my years as a part time card counter.

    Mathematically it is absurdly simple, given enough time for the statistical advantage/disadvantage to kick it, you can ONLY make money by betting into a positive expectation. There is no way around although there are literally millions around that will disagree and will sell you their 'system' for $19.99….

    The fact that you keep increasing your bet until you win your $20 stake does NOT make it a positive expectation bet. In fact, if you are betting with the various TAB's and bookies, with their take of around 15%, you are in fact effectively losing 15% every time you place a bet with them! (barring any 'inside' knowledge that will usually manipulate the odds into a prohibitive quote in any case).

    Martingale's and those systems closely related rely on one thing, many small wins, and i'll give you that much, if you follow this system you will have many small wins. BUT……. sooner or later you will hit a losing streak that you won't have the capital to overcome, or the bet you are required to make is of such a large amount you cannot get the whole bet on without it either being refused or manipulating the market to a degree where it is a complete waste of time.

    I'll say it again, the only way you win gambling is to continuously bet into a positive expectation. For example card counting (dependent on the rules and conditions) is a positive expectation technique. Granted there will be times by either design or necessity you will be betting into netagive expectations, such as when the true count is neutral or negative, but you negate this by placing small, or no bets at this point and you capitalise on the positive counts by proportionately increasing your bets in line with expectation (modified Kelly Criterion). This in turn results in an overall positive expectation.

    Progressive systems, can NEVER work unless the bets are PE in the first place in which case you can then use Kelly Criterion to capitalise on these opportunities with far great efficiency than any progressive method.

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
    Participant
    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,110

    I just received a call from a company today called "Pegasys" based in Brisbane. They are supposedly an 'accounting firm' but are trying to sell some software package which works with currency trading. It seemed to be an arbitrage type system. I remember the other company "STS" were saying they were launching a foreign currency trading software, so the two companies may be related.

    This called had an English accent and the company is based in brisbane – the other company was also in Brisbane and staffed by english accented people.

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of wezwazwezwaz
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    @wezwaz
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 192

    W J Hooker

    Better listen to Bootlace because he knows his "onions". You don't understand probability if you think you can win using your system. There have been documented cases of card counters winning at blackjack because, to my knowledge, it's the only casino game you can put the odds in your favour. But my guess is you still have to be quite skilled at it to win consistently, i.e. you don't read a book and think you are a champion card counter. Added to that, card counters are the exception, not the rule. Casinos also have the right to eject people if they are seen to be using skill, believe it or not, because casino games are supposed to be games of chance (and they are except for blackjack).

    As I stated previously, if a person could win consistently they wouldn't give it up. Why would you? Think. There's all the money in the world on tap, and who doesn't want more of it?

    Profile photo of BootlaceBootlace
    Participant
    @bootlace
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 43

    Sorry to dig up an old thread but i wonder if any of the entities mentioned here may have been involved?

    http://www.police.qld.gov.au/programs/crimePrevention/eCrime/scams/sportsArbitrgeInvstigtn.htm

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
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    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,110

    Hi Bootlace.

    Thanks for the follow up, I checked the link to the QLD police – I have never heard of any of the companies listed there before.

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of James_JohnsonJames_Johnson
    Member
    @james_johnson
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 86

    SCAM

    SCAM

    SCAM

    SCAM

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
    Participant
    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,110

    Thats a good summary i think!

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of Tysonboss1Tysonboss1
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    @tysonboss1
    Join Date: 2007
    Post Count: 306

    I have had a company trying the hard sell to get me to give them $1000 capital which they will manage on my behalf to make arbitiage sports bets.

    after talking to the salesman I can see though this scam.

    As another forum member mentioned if this worked why would they need to waste their time managing my $1000 just to earn a 5% commision off earnings.

    Profile photo of alan_chong5533alan_chong5533
    Participant
    @alan_chong5533
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 7

    Arbitrage Sports Betting?
    What next??

    That's not investing…that's like some kind of speculating.

    C'mon.
    You would be wasting your time.

    Leave it alone and get back to real estate investing issues!

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
    Participant
    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,110

    Authorities probe sport betting scams

    Authorities are investigating Queensland's sports betting industry, following allegations scams have ripped more than $4 million from punters.

    Fair Trading investigators recently led multi-agency teams that included Queensland police and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission in door-knocks of almost 40 sports arbitrage companies, mostly on the Gold Coast.

    About 650 punters have complained since January last year of losing thousands on complicated betting systems.

    Total losses amount to more than $4 million.

    Complaints included not being able to contact companies after paying membership fees of between $3,000 and $19,000.

     

    more at http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/authorities-probe-sport-betting-scams-20090625-cx8v.html

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of RussellsRussells
    Member
    @russells
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 8

    There was a big expose on them in the Brisbane papers last week. Apparently many of these companies were based on the Gold Coast here in Qld. Most of them are bust and, according to the newspapers; many people/gamblers have lost their shirt. Police raided their offices to find them empty.

    Profile photo of wezwazwezwaz
    Participant
    @wezwaz
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 192

    This has been going on for years and will continue into the future because useless regulators like ASIC and Fair Trading are absolutely and completely clueless in doing anything to stop it. Scammers register with ASIC because it "legitimises" their name in the eyes of the unsuspecting public. It is such a limp process and anyone can do it. It's called a $2 company.

    When the proverbial hits the fan, i.e. complaints from customers, they disappear and go to ground until the dust settles. No-one ever finds them. Then they rise out of the ashes like the phoenix and start all over again, and milk the next unsuspecting victims. Scammers are very clever and know they need their escape plan in order.

    If you've got no conscience, there couldn't be a better business. If you're free of ethics, this is the business for you. Unfortunately, blood suckers like this exist in society. With my upbringing it is something that I couldn't believe for a long time, but now I know it is simply part of life.

    Profile photo of TerrywTerryw
    Participant
    @terryw
    Join Date: 2001
    Post Count: 16,110

    I am already getting emails (on my fake account which I gave that company) for new business opportunities. There was one about forex trading and others too.

    Terryw | Structuring Lawyers / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
    http://propertytaxbook.com.au/
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    Lawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Aust wide) http://propertytaxbook.com.au/

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