All Topics / General Property / property boom or not???

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  • Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    yarpos wrote:
    not really,  its consistent with you other posts , I just thought you had something else to say

    NOT:)

    Profile photo of mackarmackar
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    gees… I'm glad I prefaced this topic with asking for some restraint, or who
    knows what comments we would have got…
    we all… now, have a very good idea what some
    members here, have to say & say & say…

    does anyone else have any informative, constructive, educated, unbiased views
    ideas,  information or just plain hunches???

    without the use of large letters to push your point!!

    I really am not interested in this line of drivel being peddled on nearly every
    similarly themed thread recently over & over again….boring…!!

    I,  like I'm sure, many readers here have a brain & can decipher information & opinion without aid.

    there are no winners here if we resort to personal attacks

    thanks

    Mackar.

    Profile photo of ErikHErikH
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    Mackar,

    I don't think we'll see a boom anytime soon but I do believe Australia will ride this global downturn out much better than most.

    I believe:
    – that the US, UK and continental Europe will suffer pretty strong downturns / recessions
    – that BRICs and other emerging markets are decoupled enough from the US to continue to grow but at a slower pace
    – that commodities will stay high for many years to come due to the growth in emerging markets
    – that even though prices will recede from their recent peaks they will stay high (e.g. oil is down from its recent $140+ peak but I believe it will stay in the $70 to $100 range which is much more than most would have believed only a short while ago)
    – that robust commodity demand and commodity prices will keep Australia afloat, i.e. not suffer as badly as the US and UK
    – that migration will stay high, as recession sets in in the UK there are plenty of people with equity who may well decide that this is now the time to go down under
    – that inflation will stay above target so interest rates will only decrease slowly in Australia
    – that the census data stating 900,000 houses are empty is misleading and that a very limited amount of this will actually get onto the residential market
    – that commodity states like WA and QLD will not suffer a great rise in unemployment but this may well be different in say areas around say Sydney
    – that local variations in unemployment, will further increase interstate migration towards QLD
    – that some areas may well suffer severe declines in property price, i.e. those areas with higher unemployment where people bought too high and leveraged themselves too far. Some areas like SE QLD and other selected areas may well actually continue to increase slowly.

    Oh, and as always, when the inevitable correction in the cycle comes all the media and the public declare property prices lost forever, that prices will drop by 30%, 40%, 50% or more, typically the corections are much smaller and after 7-10 yrs or maybe even 12 yrs we'll have had another cycle… I read an interesting article a few years ago that actually summed up all the popular reasons why people shouldn't invest in property in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s and so on. If you had followed these common reasons why "now isn't the time to buy" you'd never buy anything …

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Mackar,

    You have started a thread that can be responded to with nothing but conjecture and opinion, what did you expect?

    No one knows – reason I came to this forum was I thought someone might but truth is no-one does. It is all just opinion based on how much they have invested in the situation either way. Even the banks and experts cant agree.

    If your brain can decipher true 'information' find it youself and post a link to enlighten everyone.

    Large letters were a joke, as is standard in forums and blogging now. Don't be a hypocrite, if you want no personal attacks, post none yourself.

    Profile photo of mackarmackar
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    This is better.. snippets of peoples thoughts… it's interesting to read  where people are at with
    their different ideas on the market.

    I agree that no one knows…thats why its pointless pushing anyones point…
    but I enjoy stimulating informative dialogue.

    …what was the article you read about "why not to buy R.E. over last decades" Erikh??

    thanks Erikh & unmester for your posts

    mackar

    Profile photo of ErikHErikH
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    mackar, it was an article on the basics of property investing and in a section on "timing the market" versus "time in the market" the author highlighted how since the mid 40's there had always been good reasons not to invest in real estate, e.g. high interest rates, recession threats etc etc

    Don't remember who wrote it and I didn't keep the article

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I believe property will bounce back next year with gains of over 20% per year for the next 5 years. Rents will stay with the price rises with the above very sustainable as incomes starting in the mining sector flow through to the wider comunity. The usa is alsmost out of it problems and i suspect to see strong gains in ther housing in the coming months.The UK will closly follow.
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    Only kidding. Just wanted to make a few people foam at the mouth waiting to tear me down ;)

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    What do you mean noone knows ? I know.
    I have posted all the reasons of why the housing market will crash in a thread called something similar on the Help forum U think. You can't miss it, it's got 25.000 views.

    If you are genuinly interested, you will read that whole post. It will take you about a weekend, but you'll be completely up to date. The article was posted in May, when everyone was still a Bull and things would pick up again 2-3 months later ( or so , everyone said ).

    Please don't say that 'noone knows'. The fact that you might not understand doesn't mean others with more research or intellect can't possibly understand either. I understand and I know what is going to happen.

    compare it with rolling 2 dice. If you roll once.. you might say "there's a big chance that 7 will turn up.. but it could also be another number". The more you throw those two dices ( let's say 1000 times ? ) and you will see that 7 does indeed turn up most. Luck ? no.. just mathematics.

    Same happens here. It's maths. The system is a hoax. Everyone is indebted, everything is maxed out… noone can pay… unemployment will now rise, panic will occur. Don't say it cannot be predicted, because I just told you what will happen. Best thing you can do is take the advice and cash up money ( doesn't have to be in cash.. ) and sit the storm out. It could be a long storm, it could be a short, massive hurricane. But the truth is , people who overleveraged themselves in the last few years ( 2006 to 2008 ) will sink.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Scamp wrote:
    What do you mean noone knows ? I know.
    I have posted all the reasons of why the housing market will crash in a thread called something similar on the Help forum U think. You can't miss it, it's got 25.000 views.

    If you are genuinly interested, you will read that whole post. It will take you about a weekend, but you'll be completely up to date. The article was posted in May, when everyone was still a Bull and things would pick up again 2-3 months later ( or so , everyone said ).

    Please don't say that 'noone knows'. The fact that you might not understand doesn't mean others with more research or intellect can't possibly understand either. I understand and I know what is going to happen.

    compare it with rolling 2 dice. If you roll once.. you might say "there's a big chance that 7 will turn up.. but it could also be another number". The more you throw those two dices ( let's say 1000 times ? ) and you will see that 7 does indeed turn up most. Luck ? no.. just mathematics.

    Same happens here. It's maths. The system is a hoax. Everyone is indebted, everything is maxed out… noone can pay… unemployment will now rise, panic will occur. Don't say it cannot be predicted, because I just told you what will happen. Best thing you can do is take the advice and cash up money ( doesn't have to be in cash.. ) and sit the storm out. It could be a long storm, it could be a short, massive hurricane. But the truth is , people who overleveraged themselves in the last few years ( 2006 to 2008 ) will sink.

    Scamp man,

    I am not your enemy on this – I've been a Bear for the last 3 years. But no one knows exactly how bad it is going to crash, how much each state is going to be affected, how much of Australia's property market is over leveraged and so on.

    Two dice don't have the human element. No-one can judge exactly how people will respond to given situations so don't pretend you can. I agree with your financial research but you can't garantee what is going to happen in Australia.

    Most  people alive in Australia at the moment have never seen really bad times, there is no precedent for how they will react. We may have massive bank runs – the likes of which the world hasn't been seen since medieval times. We may even linch some investors and CEOs The government in this country (doubtful, I know) may be able to have more effect on the banks than in the US. We may all go Ned Kelly on each other, we sure as hell couldn't effectively declare martial law in a place this expansive. The point is, your maths can't predict these kind of things.

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    scamp knows…he's not really just a dutch IT nerd with delusions of grandeur,  its just a cover for his real role as global economic modelling consultant to the world bank.   Just be grateful he finds some time to spend with us………..

    Profile photo of mackarmackar
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    why … if what you profess is correct, & I'm not shooting you down here… would several revered analysts ie: matusik,
    bis shrapnel etc
    state recently in their 2008 – 2011 predictions a 22% raise in property prices & similar for rental increases..?? (I know I have just raised one of my properties rents by aprox 18% this year alone… & without having to get a new tenant… I realise this is an isolated incident mind you).

    do the property analysts have a second agenda??

    does anyone feel that my initial comments re: the stamp duty concessions in s.e.q. etc hold any water??

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    mackar wrote:
    do the property analysts have a second agenda??

    Yes. Although some are honest. But certainly not BIS Shrapnel. Funny you mention them, because they are actually the worst of them all.

    Profile photo of mackarmackar
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    is this just a conspiracy theory???

    why would a respectable company compromise their perceived integrity??

    mackar

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    mackar wrote:
    why … if what you profess is correct, & I'm not shooting you down here… would several revered analysts ie: matusik,
    bis shrapnel etc
    state recently in their 2008 – 2011 predictions a 22% raise in property prices & similar for rental increases..?? (I know I have just raised one of my properties rents by aprox 18% this year alone… & without having to get a new tenant… I realise this is an isolated incident mind you).

    do the property analysts have a second agenda??

    does anyone feel that my initial comments re: the stamp duty concessions in s.e.q. etc hold any water??

    What is the relief provided as a % of an average house purchase ?   With interest rates hovering around 9% give or take,  my guess would be that the once off gain wouldnt be enough to encourage people to take the leap as affordability hasnt changed.  A little interest drop and you may see your corner of the world become active quicker than other places however.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    House prices are just overpriced. That's all. People all over realize this now, they see people going bust because they overleveraged themselves : They don't want to make the same mistake.

    Lower houseprices are good for the whole country.

    Mackar : about your comments on the concessions etc. They only apply to FHB's. And those have been priced out a LONG time ago. Only 7% of home sales are FHB's. The rest are investors / second home buyers etc.. They don't get the FHB benefits. The fact that FHB's have been priced out also means that no new 'blood' ( aka , money ) can come into the loop. The investors are now basically fighting eachother. FHB's are ( have to ) wait on the sidelines for 40% pricedrops. It will only get worse as banks will require more and more deposits , which few FHB's have.  ( about 7% of FHB's have deposits… the rest burns it on plasma tv's , subaru impreza's and nokia mobiles ).

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    QLD stamp duty changes applied to all buyers not just FHBs

    summary here http://garvey.biz/2008/06/04/new-duty-rates/

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    mackar wrote:
    is this just a conspiracy theory???

    why would a respectable company compromise their perceived integrity??

    mackar

    mackar,

    The obvious answer would be that thier integrity isn't worth as much as thier profits. For a property analyst to useful, there has to be alot to analyse in the property market. An active market is job security for them.

    In my time, I have been, amongst other things, a cop and a public servant in the unemployment sector and I tell you, as much as they are a pain in the butt, criminals and dole bludgers were great for my job security.

    Profile photo of mackarmackar
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    surely though there is an advantage for analysts to be able to pick the timing of the downturns
    as well as the upswings…or else if they can't they virtually become redundant as noone
    will have confidence in their opinion in any market… & well… with analysts.. thats all they
    have to sell really, …their reputation.
    a bit like a burger shop having no burgers… after 1 or 2 visits you don't bother going there anymore.
    -not a very good analogy I know, but you know what I mean!!

    mackar

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    mackar wrote:
    surely though there is an advantage for analysts to be able to pick the timing of the downturns
    as well as the upswings…or else if they can't they virtually become redundant as noone
    will have confidence in their opinion in any market… & well… with analysts.. thats all they
    have to sell really, …their reputation.
    a bit like a burger shop having no burgers… after 1 or 2 visits you don't bother going there anymore.
    -not a very good analogy I know, but you know what I mean!!

    mackar

    I will tell you what the analysts do :
    – In good times they will spruik and say how good they are
    – In bad times they will blame it on everything else except themselves.

    There was even one bank who blamed their bad year results on the WEATHER haha… how silly can you get.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    mackar wrote:
    surely though there is an advantage for analysts to be able to pick the timing of the downturns
    as well as the upswings…or else if they can't they virtually become redundant as noone
    will have confidence in their opinion in any market… & well… with analysts.. thats all they
    have to sell really, …their reputation.
    a bit like a burger shop having no burgers… after 1 or 2 visits you don't bother going there anymore.
    -not a very good analogy I know, but you know what I mean!!

    mackar

    They will be admitting a downturn soon (I recon) but they know the market has to milk each last drop from unwary investors first.

    When the burger shop runs out of burgers, for the first couple of months they'll keep advertising and sell you just the shakes or fries. When the shakes and fries wear thin, they'll become a BBQ chicken shop. The good ones will even have a new trading name, logo and everything. Before you know it you'll be wonderring why you were ever worried about the lack of burgers to start with. Of course, the bad ones will fall by the way side.

    Honestly, you seem a bit less headstrong than most investors. Just play really safe for the next couple of years, what have you got to lose?

    Rest assurred, I am not into studying this for any reason other than I want the country to improve. I want the old Australia back where each working family could get pissed at a barbie in their own back yard. I'm sick of this fund the boomers retirement situation that we are stuck in and for myself never, ever want more than one house.

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