All Topics / Help Needed! / First Home Buyer – But Prices tipped to fall 10% in one year

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  • Profile photo of brunowabrunowa
    Participant
    @brunowa
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 27

    Hi All,

    I have been reading quite a bit on these forums and I'm at the stage of my life (23 and living at home) where I want to move out and purchase my own 2 bedroom unit. I have not even considered renting. I aim to live in one bedroom and rent out the other room. I live in Sydney and want to purchase on either the lower north shore or the eastern suburbs.

    I'm still not sure of the best plan for my situation though. I have approximately $200k in cash or liquid assets and have been approved for a loan of $285k. So I am looking on the market for 2 bedroom units approximately $400k – $500k.

    I've just read the Australian Property Monitors June Quarter release which estimates prices to fall 10% over the next year (see link below).
    http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/APM_HousePriceSeries_JuneQ08.pdf

    I'm not sure exactly how to invest at this point in time with the shaky markets, but I do not want to stay at home much longer and I would rather not rent. But the forecast of losing $40k in one year is a bit scary.

    What are your thoughts on my situation? What would be best? And any suggestions on locations or types of apartments to look for in the areas mentioned above?

    Profile photo of sallyannsallyann
    Member
    @sallyann
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 53

    You only lose it if you sell. How long are you planning to hold it? As long as you can handle the repayments on your income including interest rate rises, and are holding it medium-longer term, should be fine. Over the last 25 years property has averaged 8% gain a year and there's no reason the long term future growth shouldn't be similar.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
    Member
    @scamp
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 297

    Stay at home , sit out the storm and get free food and laundry.

    Don't join the game now. In 2-3 years you can consider buying.

    Why do you think the market is collapsing ?… because no FHB can afford a home.
    Can you afford one ? No… Join the ranks, just sit ou the storm and if you get desperate about living away from your parents go on holiday in Thailand for 2 years, it'll be a LOAD cheaper than to buy a home now.

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