All Topics / General Property / Future Interest Rates

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  • Profile photo of bradjebradje
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    Hi all,
    Steve McKnight recently wrote in an e-mail…

    <<<In a nutshell, events are conspiring that cause me to be absolutely convinced… …that interest rates are on target to crash through 10%,
    thereby triggering a massive credit squeeze!

    No, this is not alarmist nonsense. Give me a few minutes of your time and I'll explain why 10%+ interest rates are as good as certain.>>>

    Yet fixed interest Home Loans from ANZ and CBA are at 7.99% for 10 years and 15 years respectively.
    So does this suggest a disagreement with Steve's diagnosis or can the views be reconciled?

    Cheers,
    JB

    Profile photo of v8ghiav8ghia
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    Good question. 10+ years is a long time, and true, at best what rates will be like then is only an educated guess. Fixed interest loans work a little bit differently, but even so, many lenders will not offer one for more than 5 years.
    One rough guide used to be to compare the rates for 2,3 and 5 year fixed rate loans, which gave a bit of an idea what 'the experts' were thinking. Fixed rates from many lenders have snuck up a bit of late, and you can bet another rate rise or two , or in the casr of some lenders if they get a whiff of a rate rise, the fixed rates will go up again. …….and those rates you qouted will no longer apply of course, unless you signed up for one and had it settle first – which is not a bad idea (but not for 10 years!)

    As a sidepoint, I wonder how many people would want a fixed loan for that term? If they sold their house, the lender will get a huge early penalty payment, that will more than make up for the fact that th money may have been able to be 'sold' for more meanwhile.

    I guess if you look at the Interest rates in NZ, they are what Steve is talking of now, which is more than possible, and maybe quite likely – who knows? Cheers.
     

    Profile photo of pwinnepwinne
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    v8ghia wrote:

    Good question. 10+ years is a long time, and true, at best what rates will be like then is only an educated guess. Fixed interest loans work a little bit differently, but even so, many lenders will not offer one for more than 5 years.
    One rough guide used to be to compare the rates for 2,3 and 5 year fixed rate loans, which gave a bit of an idea what 'the experts' were thinking. Fixed rates from many lenders have snuck up a bit of late, and you can bet another rate rise or two , or in the casr of some lenders if they get a whiff of a rate rise, the fixed rates will go up again. …….and those rates you qouted will no longer apply of course, unless you signed up for one and had it settle first – which is not a bad idea (but not for 10 years!)

    As a sidepoint, I wonder how many people would want a fixed loan for that term? If they sold their house, the lender will get a huge early penalty payment, that will more than make up for the fact that th money may have been able to be 'sold' for more meanwhile.

    I guess if you look at the Interest rates in NZ, they are what Steve is talking of now, which is more than possible, and maybe quite likely – who knows? Cheers.
     

    well I signed up at 6.25 for 5 years, 5 years ago.. so my payments will go up soon (on 2 IPs anyay)
    I wish rates were still at 6.25 :)

    The experts were wrong about today 5 years ago :)

    Cheers

    Profile photo of TheShoulderGuyTheShoulderGuy
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    Any opinions on whether to fix at 3 or 5 years. Potential for inflationary pressures to be around for some time to come with Aussie mining boom, drought etc and the effects of world economy and volitility in some major old school markets. Any thoughts on this as just looking to refinance myself on PPOR and new IP.
    Cheers

    Profile photo of v8ghiav8ghia
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    [/quote]

    well I signed up at 6.25 for 5 years, 5 years ago.. so my payments will go up soon (on 2 IPs anyay)
    I wish rates were still at 6.25 :)

    The experts were wrong about today 5 years ago :)

    Cheers[/quote]

    Makes you wonder what hope us peasants have in guessing eh?
    Seriously, that is not too bad – you can get 3yr fixed now for 7.69 or so with a couple of lenders, or a whisker higher, so hopefully in the five years for the extra 1+ % you have had some great growth in property value.
    Cheers.

    Profile photo of v8ghiav8ghia
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    madproperty wrote:
    Any opinions on whether to fix at 3 or 5 years. Potential for inflationary pressures to be around for some time to come with Aussie mining boom, drought etc and the effects of world economy and volitility in some major old school markets. Any thoughts on this as just looking to refinance myself on PPOR and new IP.
    Cheers

    Hi madprop – purely my opinion, for the PPOR I would be fixing at either term you mentioned, possibly five, depending on how long you have to go, BUT I am not a believer in signing up for a fixed loan that cannot have some extra payments made. (other than an option I will mention in a jiff….) Some lenders still do not allow this, others have an annual maximum without penalty, others a flat max amount for the fixed term. The thing is, no one can forecast ahead what circumstances may change in 5 yrs – new job? inheritance? BOnus? Sell the spare car? As far as the IP goes, much would depend on what you paln – if it is to sell within a couple of years, or the possibility you may, variable may be a wiser choice. The other option with the PPOR is to split the loan, with say a small part (25%??) variable, and the rest fixed. THat way, if the lender does not allow extra repayments off the fixed part, you can then make extra payments at your leisure from the variable part of the loan, and of course use redraw from it too if needed for emergencies etc. Three more rate rises on a small variable loan is obviously a lot less painfull than on the whole large loan. All the best.

    Profile photo of geoff sgeoff s
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    Gee , for us so called oldies ,remember what the rates were in the 80's. up to 18% , no this could sort some of us out including me.
     Hope the rates stay around 7 or less.

                         geoff

    Profile photo of YossarianYossarian
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    All,

    Nerds in the financial markets are basically saying:

    .25 next week
    some small chance of another .25 in December but
    almost certain of another .50 by June depending on if (when?) the US slides into a recessionary blip.

    The 3 Yr inter-bank rate has jumped .30% in the last week or thereabout so I think you'll find mixed rates moving up pretty rapidly in the next little bit.

    My guess – headline rate of 9ish percent by June…assume you'll be paying 8.60-8.80% in reality.

    Profile photo of SulleySulley
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    bradje wrote:
    Yet fixed interest Home Loans from ANZ and CBA are at 7.99% for 10 years and 15 years respectively.
    So does this suggest a disagreement with Steve's diagnosis or can the views be reconciled?

    Interestingly, if you look at the 10year cash bond rates – the % at which the banks buy the money to lend you – the banks are buying the 10year bonds at 6.10% (Bloombergs 24-Oct).  So if you think the CBA are doing you a huge favour at 7.99%, think again … they are making a VERY VERY healthy 1.89% on the loan for 10 years!!!! That works out to be an awful lot of money over 10 years!!

    The 3yr bond rate is about 6.75%, so the shorter fixed term mortgages are far less profitable!

    Cheers
    Andre

    Profile photo of James007James007
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    Interesting stuff guys i'm no economist, my understanding of the economy is somewhat lacking, which is why i'm not so sure how things are goin to pan out over the next five years. The property boom of 99 to 2003 was said to lead to a massive bust in the real estate market but it didnt,  so things went quite for a bit then since the start of this year melbourne auc clearance rates have continued to rise, its almost like the people that seen the last boom dont wont to miss out again and are willing to stretch themselves financially to get into the market. The difference in 2007 however is that most motgages eat up more than 30% of peoples income!!! What does everyone think the future holds for us mear mortals??

    Profile photo of bardonbardon
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    @bardon
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    I` have just signed an interest only loan offer today 5 yr fixed with ANZ 7.9 its a 105% on value loan so quite happy to leave that loan like that for next five years, I am just starting a house and land loan  also 105% on value and I cant fix that until final progress payments and fully intend to when I can for the same reason.  Will leave the PPR loan, LOC and offset on variable with the ability to pay down redraw use as next downpayment as required will end up being about 70% fixed and 30% variable full flexibility on PPR and LOC. I'm betting that rates are going up at least in the short term and I like the peace of mind of not worrying about it every second day.

    Profile photo of shanshanshanshan
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    Great thread! I need to refresh my economic knowledge. But if the world was to go into recession, what effect would that have on interest rates? I think it will reduce the rates to entice investment, is this correct? I guess this is what has happened in the US.

    I agree that the Australian economy is growing very strongly, but you can't ignore whats happening in the US and the ultimate effect it may have on us.

    Does anyone have any forecasts for interest rates?

    Profile photo of YossarianYossarian
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    Sulley wrote:
    bradje wrote:
    Yet fixed interest Home Loans from ANZ and CBA are at 7.99% for 10 years and 15 years respectively.
    So does this suggest a disagreement with Steve's diagnosis or can the views be reconciled?

    Interestingly, if you look at the 10year cash bond rates – the % at which the banks buy the money to lend you – the banks are buying the 10year bonds at 6.10% (Bloombergs 24-Oct).  So if you think the CBA are doing you a huge favour at 7.99%, think again … they are making a VERY VERY healthy 1.89% on the loan for 10 years!!!! That works out to be an awful lot of money over 10 years!!

    The 3yr bond rate is about 6.75%, so the shorter fixed term mortgages are far less profitable!

    Cheers
    Andre

    Sulley,

    If you're talking government bonds, isn't that essentially what the government will pay you as interest, rather than what banks are raising money with. Presumably, if you have a government-guaranteed bond with an implied yield of say 6.20%, you would want a good deal more from somebody less stable….. like a Bank?

    A better measure would be the Bank Bill Swap Rate , which is the rate that bank's lend to each other. As an example, the 3 year bank swap rate today is 7.39% and the the 5 year rate 7.32%!

    There's your problem!

    As far  as the US economy is concerned…they are potentially in significant poop. I would think the key question for  Oz is to what extent the boom we riding courtesy of the Chinese is dependent on the boom the Chinese are riding couresy of US debt-driven consumer demand. What happens when Jimbo from North Dekota suddenly has negative equity in his property and thinks twice about buying the third 100" plasma for the garage?

    While I'm on it, it's also worth remembering that though no-one talks about the current account deficit anymore (remember in the Hawke/Keating years when it was THE economic issue?), in spite of the fact we could probably export pure dirt at the moment and have someone buy it for $100/tonne, we are still importing more junk than we sell. If you're running a current account deficit of biblical proportions in the midst of an export bonanza and then the music stops….

    Of course, if we had taken advantage of the most significant boom in living memory by investing in skills, infrastructure and education rather than creating the world's largest election pork barrell, perhaps we'd have plan B……

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Yossarian wrote:
    If you're running a current account deficit of biblical proportions in the midst of an export bonanza and then the music stops….

    Of course, if we had taken advantage of the most significant boom in living memory by investing in skills, infrastructure and education rather than creating the world's largest election pork barrell, perhaps we'd have plan B……

    We do have a plan B. Borrow money.

    Wrap your head around this one… we have been borrowing money (at a national level – ie private debt) much faster than we've been earning money (at a national level – GDP). This is an unsustainable practise. However, if we had only ever borrowed at a sustainable rate, our economy would have been in recession for several years. This unsustainable borrowing/spending spree will naturally end at some point and we'll go into recession (declining GDP). What effect does that have on the aforementioned 'sustainable rate' of credit growth?

    Cheers, F. [cowboy2]

    Profile photo of erratikerratik
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    so in layman's terms… no matter which way you look at it we're screwed?

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    erratik, that's it in a nutshell. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next year… but unless we find a supplementary industry the size of our current natural resources industry, we're headed for the worst correction in living memory. Most likely the greatest depression in our nation's history. Both the 1890s and 1930s depressions were preceded by just such a credit conundrum. This time it's just much bigger:

    Now back on topic: The RBA has raised interest rates another 0.25% this morning, with fairly hawkish warnings of inflation breaching 3% by Q1 next year.

    F. [cowboy2]

    Profile photo of RobLRobL
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    *gasp* .. after hearing Bob Brown telling me the greens will not allow an increase in the earth's temp of more than 2 degrees because its bad for the planet  (I kid you not – a powerful political party indeed – check the ABC transcript) .. and having watched Al Gore .. just to be sure Bob B doesn't actually have a global thermostat hidden away some where … have just realised after seeing the trendline above ….. debt appears to mirror CO2 growth *gasp* .. now I know why we didn't sign the accord, and we appear to be scre**ed  :-)

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Thanks Foundation very good as usual …

    Interesting times are a coming – cash is king – Steve is obviously correct predicting rates not just 10% but in my view higher … 2008 will be a year of smart planning for the following 10 year period …

    D

    Profile photo of Tysonboss1Tysonboss1
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    I fixed my loans for a mix of 2 and 3 years,….. maybe thats not long enough,

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