history shows when stocks crash as they seem to be doing this week, money is pulled out of equities and is reinvested in property.
thoughts?
hi crashy
great timing because my American friend (living here now) and I were arguing about this over a beer yesterday!
He says that in the states, there is no direct correlation between the two and that there shouldn’t be in Australia either.
I disagreed with him about this (for the Oz market at least). I was bought up on the old adage that “When stocks are flying, developers are buying. When stocks are bellying, developers are selling" !BTW: A couple of beers never really help the argument either
I’d love to hear other opinions on this too.
Cheers
Hutch
And is that what you would do ?????
Yes history repeats however look at the market closer … we also have rising interest rates and a USA market in trouble which is creating FEAR back here in Australia … or haven't you been watching the news …
D
geez, thats a pretty grumpy response.
lost money today did we?
Hi Crashy and the answer is NO …
25 years of battle scars and went through the 1990's of 19.33% interest rates … hope you don't.
Most people on this site under 38yrs old were 20 in 1990 or younger … I am trying to keep a level head … we lost a lot and have made a lot over time … it's easy being an expert and giving opinions but when something goes wrong I find those people hiding under their desks not knowing what to do.
Remember an expert is a drip under pressure … sign off on all opinions and lets wait and see … it's not all doom and gloom
D
Im confused….is it
"its not all doom & gloom"
or
"we also have rising interest rates and a USA market in trouble which is creating FEAR back here in Australia"personally I think 99% of people have NO CLUE how much trouble the world is in.
derivatives are 8x world GDP. This means for every $1 of real money invested, there is another $8 of borrowed money betting on which way it will go. Its like musical chairs, except, instead of 7 chairs and 8 kids, theres 8 kids and ONE chair.
I'm confused too wealth4life………Ramblings.
Take a breath. What is your point exactly? That you are an expert with battle-scars and we are all too young and dumb to understand?
This whole forum is full of opinions that are not facts, just opinions.
We all have been watching the negative media and doom and gloom on the news and I don't buy into it for one second.
The original question was, is the current stock-market crash likely to have a flow on effect to property in 2007 and beyond ????Afternoon All
I wouldn't be writing off the stock market just yet. The fundamentals of many companies are still good when you look at P/E ratios, dividends etc. Everyone was talking about the "Correction We had to Have" – well here it is. Great – I'm looking around for stocks to buy right now but sticking to quality stocks. Remember – the China and India story is still alive and well.
Will it move money into the property market – yes there will be people who panic and move there cash out – eventually they will buy property but probably after the prices have already moved significantly. So the impact here won't be quick. The property market may be impacted if we have another interest rate rise as many predict.
Still, I also love buying property so I also think its a good time to buy property from a long term perspective.
Its an exciting time to be an Investor right now!!!
Cheers
TheBishHello Hutch,
No I am not an expert and you should not jump too quickly … my point was, that i so badly did not get across was that – being around a little longer than most here not to rely on historical data with out taking into account current trends.
It's easy to assume that if the stock market crashes where people would invest … i just believe that with the current interest rates here and the problems OS that people will sit.
And you are incorrect also because that was not the original question … ditto
D
isn't stock something you put in your soup? mmmm… soup.
This might be a little of topic. I'm 30 and have about $75,000 super currently invested in growth which i believe is about 75% Australian equities. In a sharemarket slump should i be putting it in something safer like cash or since i dont intend on touching my super for atleast 30 years, i should just ride it out. Any thoughts.
its too late now to change asset classes. we are closer to the bottom. ride it out I say
Yes Devo76, given you are 30 I'd be picking out some stocks you like with a price target and then buying when they hit that target.
This is just a correction (I hope)!!!
Yes Devo76, given you are 30 I'd be picking out some stocks you like with a price target and then buying when they hit that target.
This is just a correction (I hope)!!!
if anyone finds a share with high div yield please let us know…….especially if it has self-funded instalment warrants
crashy wrote:history shows when stocks crash as they seem to be doing this week, money is pulled out of equities and is reinvested in property. thoughts?For me times like this cash is King, but don't take your eye of the game as some good opportunities will be coming.
Property and shares will present some good invesments in early 08, thats my belief.
I think everyone is going to get a lot more nervous before this all plays out, add one or two more interest rate rises into the equation to slow th economy and bam opportunities everywhere.
By mid to late 08 the Reserve Bank will start to lower rates, people start to feel good again and we are off and running.
Well thats how I hope it all to pans out?Im with you there.
I think RBA will make a grave mistake raising rates in Oct after bad CPI for this quarter.
economy will stall, rates will fall hard in 2008.
Don't be too over cautious. Get a clear strategy – whether it be shares or property and ignore short term price movement.
If a share or property fits into you criteria – Buy it.
Don't procrastinate – I'm sure Kerry Packer never did!!
TheBish wrote:Don't be too over cautious. Get a clear strategy – whether it be shares or property and ignore short term price movement.
If a share or property fits into you criteria – Buy it.
Don't procrastinate – I'm sure Kerry Packer never did!!
If you can tell me when we have hit the bottom in the share market that would be great
I'm just researching Commsec Protected portfolio loan at the moment, a bit pussy I know but I figure better that way than not at all.many say 5400, but we nearly got there today, so I think not
next is 4800, then 4200.
if it gets to 4200 Im selling all houses & buying shares.
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