QSBO Results

Hi All

Business confidence survey data again for those of you who are interested.

Business Confidence On The Rise – Survey
16/01/2007 11:50 AM
NZPA
A marked lift in business confidence has shown up in the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) published today by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER).

For the first time in four years a net balance of firms taking part in the December quarter survey expect the general business situation to improve in the next six months.

The QSBO puts the balance of firms in the December quarter expecting an improvement at 3 percent.

It is the first time since the December 2002 quarter that the net balance has been positive.

Seasonally adjusted, a net balance of 5 percent of firms expected a deterioration in the next six months, but that was a significant decrease from the 24 percent expecting deterioration in the September quarter and 39 percent in the June quarter.

Deterioration expectations, seasonally adjusted, peaked at 70 percent in December 2005.

The increase in the general business confidence statistic was reflected in all regions and business sectors for which separate data was analysed, NZIER said.

Seasonally adjusted the number of firms reporting an increase in their own activities was 6 percent more than the number reporting a decrease. Last quarter, the net balance was zero.

A net balance of 13 percent of firms, seasonally adjusted, expected their own trading activity to lift in the next three months from its level in the December 2006 quarter.

By historical standards, investment intentions were positive, particularly for plant and machinery, NZIER said.

In the September survey, a net 2 percent of firms had expected to invest more in plant and equipment in the next 12 months.

For the December quarter that figure was up to 13 percent, the highest figure recorded since September 1995.

At the same time, the proportion of firms increasing selling prices in the past three months was down to 21 percent in the December survey, from 32 percent recorded in September.

The net balance of firms intending to increase selling prices in the next three months was unchanged in the December survey at 28 percent.

The net balance of firms experiencing cost increases in the previous three months dropped from 54 percent in the September survey to 40 percent this time.

Capacity utilisation had eased back to 91.7 percent, from 92.3 percent in September, but was still high by historical standards and comparable with levels last seen in early 2005.

A net 14 percent of firms intended to increase staff in the next three months, up from a net 6 percent in the previous survey.

Meanwhile, the difficulty of finding skilled labour, which had been easing since early 2005, had turned around and increased in the December quarter.

A net 29 percent of firms reported it was harder to find skilled labour, up from a net 21 percent in September. A net 11 percent of firms reported difficulty finding unskilled labour, up from 7 percent.

The percentage of firms reporting the availability of labour as the single factor most limiting their ability to increase output had increased again from 14 percent in the September survey to 19 percent, NZIER said.

A net balance of 12 percent of firms reported a decline in profitability in the past three months, while a net balance of 1 percent expected an increase in the next three months.

For firms operating throughout the country the confidence measure increased from -23 percent to +11 percent.

For those operating mainly in the upper North Island, the change was from -15 percent to +11 percent.

For firms operating mainly in the lower North Island the statistic went from -15 percent to -4 percent, while for those operating mainly in the South Island, it went from -29 percent to -15 percent.

Copyright: NZPA 2007

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