Sydney’s land price is 4 times higher than other City now.
Interest will probably raise again in Nov.
Costello blasts states for high housing costs.
Just wondering when will it crash?
[upsidedown][cowboy2][withstupid]What is your definition of ‘crash’?
Say land price become half price?[withstupid][baaa]
Originally posted by joytony:Say land price become half price?
I believe (with a certain degree of certainty) that will ‘never’ happen.
Check out this story http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/08/19/1155408071213.html?from=top5
The Sydney market has cooled for the last three years in succession – it has not crashed and I suspect that (subject to interest rate movements) it has reached it’s ‘bottom’
Derek
[email protected]
The Investors Club http://www.monopoly.tic.com.au
0409 882 958
Skype – derekjones2113CRASH AHOY!!!
Housing crash puts sellers in debt crisisJonathan Chancellor Property Editor
August 21, 2006A THREE-BEDROOM brick-veneer house in St Clair sold for just $260,000 at the weekend – down about 42 per cent from its last sale at $450,000 in 2003 in a further sign of the depressed state of the Sydney property market.
The Herald checked 16 properties in south-western and western suburbs listed at the weekend and found 60 per cent had prices or had attracted offers at a discount to their last sale price.Lethbridge Park, near Penrith, recorded the second highest fall, when a townhouse that sold for $257,000 in 2003 was resold by mortgagees for $156,500, reflecting a roughly 40 per cent fall.sold for $330,000 in 2003 resold at $255,000 in another mortgagee sale.mortagees accepted $541,500 for an unrenovated house that fetched $736,000 in 2003ast sold at $1,355,000 unrenovated in boom-time 2003. It attracted a $1,179,000 top bid after its recent renovationHope that’s put a smile on your dial Joy & Tony~!
F.[cowboy2]
I cant believe anyone would buy a house in St Claire for 450k!
yes,foundation. I saw it today.
I’m wondering how many investors in this forum still have interest to invest in Syd market?
Maybe first home buyer will buy it.
Im still investing in Syd. But it just depends on where. Its a pretty big place. For example Mt Annon topped capital growth last year. And the Narellan/Camden area has had strong consistent growth over the last 10 years (according to residex).
Originally posted by mathewc73:I cant believe anyone would buy a house in St Claire for 450k!
I can’t believe that you guys don’t see the bargain here.
Bought for $450K2003, it will be around $900K in 2010,(doubles every 7 years) so if you bought it for $260K in 2006 it will go up $160K each year a return of 61% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a bargain !!!!!!!!!
Originally posted by gmh454:Originally posted by mathewc73:I cant believe anyone would buy a house in St Claire for 450k!
I can’t believe that you guys don’t see the bargain here.
Bought for $450K2003, it will be around $900K in 2010,(doubles every 7 years) so if you bought it for $260K in 2006 it will go up $160K each year a return of 61% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a bargain !!!!!!!!!
lol [biggrin]
Im still waiting to hear from all the people who shot me down when I said a year ago on this sight that it was crazy to think prices will just keep going up[jerry]
From what ive been reading Sydney in some aspects has ALREADY crashed.
Am I right in saying that prices have been falling for the past 7 years?
And investors paid DOUBLE for a property that they can now only sell for half the price?
Originally posted by queengucci:From what ive been reading Sydney in some aspects has ALREADY crashed.
Am I right in saying that prices have been falling for the past 7 years?
And investors paid DOUBLE for a property that they can now only sell for half the price?
I think you might be wrong on all accounts.
Think the breaking of glass can only now be heard.
A crash only happens when it becomes common public perception.
Until now the common percetion has been
we are soft landing
we have hit bottom
the market will recover next year
there was a .00000000000000000000001% gain last month.When the property percetion is that buying real estate is like killing an albertross and when Paul Clitheroe comes back on TV telling us that if we had only invested $10 in shares 40 years ago you could now buy the Cayman islands, only THEN will we have hit bottom.
Ohh sorry forgot to mention….Perth is different
ghm 454 in what ways is perth different? Or is that a really dumb question? [blink]
Quote:Originally posted by Persian Kitten:ghm 454 in what ways is perth different? Or is that a really dumb question? [blink]
[/quote)
Only because persian kittens give me a warm fuzzy image I will avoid the humourous reply that is normally forthcoming.
In the early 1980s the explosion of RE in the Gold Coast was different
In the dot com boom the sharemarket was different and did not obey the normal curve.
During the last Sydney boom ,it was not a bubble as this time…..(fill in explanation skewed towards whatever the seller was selling) it was different (three million ppl were moving into my suburb each week !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)What do they all have in common is they crashed.
Proponents of Perth say it is different driven by different levers, but it has the same in common with the above three, speculators greed, supported by quazzy logic,
Some will say I am wrong about Perth today,…… bet I am right tomorrow.
Originally posted by gmh454:Originally posted by queengucci:From what ive been reading Sydney in some aspects has ALREADY crashed.
Am I right in saying that prices have been falling for the past 7 years?
And investors paid DOUBLE for a property that they can now only sell for half the price?
I think you might be wrong on all accounts.
Think the breaking of glass can only now be heard.
A crash only happens when it becomes common public perception.
Until now the common percetion has been
we are soft landing
we have hit bottom
the market will recover next year
there was a .00000000000000000000001% gain last month.When the property percetion is that buying real estate is like killing an albertross and when Paul Clitheroe comes back on TV telling us that if we had only invested $10 in shares 40 years ago you could now buy the Cayman islands, only THEN will we have hit bottom.
Ohh sorry forgot to mention….Perth is different
Well maybe crash isnt the correct word but when your a property investor and down the track the property is worth less than you owe the bank, interest rates go up and there are high tenancy vacancies. You have a problem.. Yes the property will eventually go up again, but you could be waiting years.
If only we all had a crystal ball, we wouldnt be asking each other these questions huh.
Australia will soon be a donught after Rio and BHP drill the centre out, once its all gone or chinese people have enough cities Perth will be a ghost town, like Seattle in the 80s.
The only nearly world class city in Australia is Sydney, prices in the center of the city are still low compared to real world class cities London, NYC etc. I believe buying close the the CBD long term you will see great capital growth as Sydney becomes a truly international city within next 10 years.
Anyway, time is forgiving, if you own a property in Sydney over 10 years, you will hit some cycle peak and make money…dont believe doubling every 7 years
Alternatively if you can’t wait a few years that long then forget the Aussie market it rubbish, prices in Riga doubling yearly, look at ascession countries to EU, this is where the smart money is going. Entry level is low.
Just my 10 euros worth
Originally posted by ugez009:Australia will soon be a donught after Rio and BHP drill the centre out, once its all gone or chinese people have enough cities Perth will be a ghost town, like Seattle in the 80s.
The only nearly world class city in Australia is Sydney, prices in the center of the city are still low compared to real world class cities London, NYC etc. I believe buying close the the CBD long term you will see great capital growth as Sydney becomes a truly international city within next 10 years.
Anyway, time is forgiving, if you own a property in Sydney over 10 years, you will hit some cycle peak and make money…dont believe doubling every 7 years
Alternatively if you can’t wait a few years that long then forget the Aussie market it rubbish, prices in Riga doubling yearly, look at ascession countries to EU, this is where the smart money is going. Entry level is low.
Just my 10 euros worth
I agree with you completely about the Aus market and that the mining boom will cease like everywhere else.. but im still trying to learn about economies ect.
Also agree that there is not much more cash that can be made here and I will start looking for opportunities elsewhere.
Thanks
Originally posted by ugez009:Australia will soon be a donught after Rio and BHP drill the centre out, once its all gone or chinese people have enough cities Perth will be a ghost town, like Seattle in the 80s.
The only nearly world class city in Australia is Sydney, prices in the center of the city are still low compared to real world class cities London, NYC etc. I believe buying close the the CBD long term you will see great capital growth as Sydney becomes a truly international city within next 10 years.
Anyway, time is forgiving, if you own a property in Sydney over 10 years, you will hit some cycle peak and make money…dont believe doubling every 7 years
Alternatively if you can’t wait a few years that long then forget the Aussie market it rubbish, prices in Riga doubling yearly, look at ascession countries to EU, this is where the smart money is going. Entry level is low.
Just my 10 euros worth
ugez009…what is your criticism of the ‘doubling every 7 years’ theory? I really share your idea of great capital growth in Syd over the next 10 years…although (perhaps unlike yourself) i have no read hard evidence its just a strong gut feeling (which I would also extend to in some areas in Melbourne). Also I am curious…if you could buy anywhere in the world right now where would it be?
Hi all,
Some interesting thoughts and comments here.
There are a number of points that need tobe made in an effort to put some balance in this discussion.
We have a sensational headline that immediately attracts the readers attention. The essence of the story is based on the results of a limited number of MORTGAGEE auctions where prices fetched were less than those realised in 2003.
Now I don’t know about you, but I wasn’t aware that a small sample of MORTGAGEE sales reflected the whole Sydney market. As a percentage it is probably too small to even calculate – I am sure suitably qualified statisticians would have a field day behind the mathematical statistical reliability of such an article.
Let’s also consider that the ‘headline’ example also required $40K in the way of repairs. Now $40K can buy a lot of repairs in the right hands – which then leads me to wonder how ‘appealing’ was the property to the wider market in it’s selling state. Oh, don’t forget, it was a MORTGAGEE sale with the owner struggling to meet repayments – I guess that means they didn’t ‘look after’ the property either.
Then we read a little deeper and notice that the previous buying prices were all realised in 2003 – now for those of us who were around at the time would clearly remember that was also the time we had all of those good news stories, renovation shows with large profits being made, etc etc etc. Of course this attracted poorly educated investors into the market in the belief that they too were guaranteed to make as much money as every else.
Trouble is irrational behaviour leads to individuals paying well above what a property is worth at the very peak of the market and when the inevitable pull back occurs they are left with negative equity – sounds like Perth at the moment.
I fully appreciate that the Sydney market has been in the doldrums over the last three years but let’s keep these types of articles in perspective.
In the cycle leading up to the peak in 2003 the Sydney market grew by 135% (according to Residex) since then most of the figures I see indicate a total drop in median prices across the whole of Sydney in the vicinity of 12% (give or take a little – I don’t have the figures at hand).
The current circumstances are part of the normal cycle – if you subscribe to the normal cycle theory.
Quite frankly if people make investment decisions based on what they read and hear in the popular press they should be doing something else.
Derek
[email protected]
The Investors Club http://www.monopoly.tic.com.au
0409 882 958
Skype – derekjones2113
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