All Topics / General Property / Property bust not here yet … worse to come

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  • Profile photo of zen1zen1
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    * Wages are now high across the board – situations such as recent accounting grads are now getting paid 100k, not just the “laborers and miners” you read about.

    I live in Perth and don’t think accounting grads are earning anywhere near 100K. It’s always an exception.

    Another think that always makes me wonder. If the demand is so high why then the yield is so low? I am getting 3% which is pretty normal in Perth.

    Profile photo of zen1zen1
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    * Wages are now high across the board – situations such as recent accounting grads are now getting paid 100k, not just the “laborers and miners” you read about.

    I live in Perth and don’t think accounting grads are earning anywhere near 100K. It’s always an exception.

    Another think that always makes me wonder. If the demand is so high why then the yield is so low? I am getting 3% which is pretty normal in Perth.

    Profile photo of zen1zen1
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    * Wages are now high across the board – situations such as recent accounting grads are now getting paid 100k, not just the “laborers and miners” you read about.

    I live in Perth and don’t think accounting grads are earning anywhere near 100K. It’s always an exception.

    Another think that always makes me wonder. If the demand is so high why then the yield is so low? I am getting 3% which is pretty normal in Perth.

    Profile photo of kingbrownkingbrown
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    Nobody said this time its different?

    Where did you get YOUR salary stats from, gmh?

    According to ABS, May 2006:

    NSW average adult wage is FOUR DOLLARS more per week than WA.

    Follow the trend, by now, WA is the highgest.

    I just spent 8 months at a mid-tier accounting firm in Perth (no, I am not an accountant!).

    But I can tell you – 100k salaries are very common now. By “recent grads” I mean a few years experience. You can “think” what you want, I can tell you, it is increasingly common.

    I could go on, but the FACTS are that WA is the powerhouse of the Australian economy, producing 40% OF ALL OF AUSTRALIA’S EXPORTS (with 10% of the population).

    The WA economy is absolutely staggering, growing at a rate more than triple that of NSW. We are talking China growth rates – with no end in site.

    Why would’nt you buy in WA??? Give me ONE good reason.

    Profile photo of zen1zen1
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    I am not disputing 100K is not common simple saying newly grads salary. I personally wouldn’t call someone with 3 years experience a newly grad.
    My wife works for a gas and oil exploration as an accountant for many years. i don’t think she will agree with “the newly” grads salary.

    Anyway, the issue I have is the level of affordabilty, low yield, increase IR, large increase in number of listing lately and the time taken to sell. Also prediction on China downturn in demand after 2008 Olympic but it’s 2 years away.

    For example, I have just made an offer on a 850sqm block with house less than 6kms (about 10 minutes peak hour drive) from the CBD, less than 1 km from the Swan River, that is zoned triplex. Price – $380k.

    It sounds like a very good deal. Can you tell us where after your offer been accepted?

    Profile photo of QuinnyQuinny
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    Originally posted by kingbrown:

    NSW average adult wage is FOUR DOLLARS more per week than WA.

    Statistics. This doesn’t take into account population distribution or the cost of living in different areas in both states.

    Originally posted by kingbrown:
    But I can tell you – 100k salaries are very common now. By “recent grads” I mean a few years experience. You can “think” what you want, I can tell you, it is increasingly common.

    Oh I wish. I don’t know what you are calling “very common” but most of the people living in WA are not earning $100K+.

    Originally posted by kingbrown:
    The WA economy is absolutely staggering, growing at a rate more than triple that of NSW. We are talking China growth rates – with no end in site.

    Why would’nt you buy in WA??? Give me ONE good reason.

    I wouldn’t buy in WA now because it costs too much and shares will give a far better return.

    Having said that, people are still buying in Perth but I’d say that demand has dropped off. There’s a place opposite me that’s been for sale for a few months now and no drop in price. A year ago that property would’ve been gone at that price before the For Sale sign got put up.
    It’ll be interesting to see the effects on the property market here if interest rates keep going up.

    Profile photo of fernfurnfernfurn
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    Your original question, Is there worse to come. I have a very simple criteria. The top of the boom is when there are as many “For Rent/Lease” signs on houses as houses “For sale” (everyone who can afford a house has bought one and now wants to rent it out to a diminished rental market) and the bottom of the cycle is when the Real Estate Agents are ringing me to find out whether I will buy. The REA are now ringing me.

    Fern

    Profile photo of fernfurnfernfurn
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    And heres another prediction – there will be a total drop in the first home buyers market in Vic as they wait for the 1% drop in stamp duty to kick in as per election promise – 1% of $350,000 is $3,500 big incentive to wait

    Fern

    Profile photo of ctaingctaing
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    Hey fernfurn

    Why only the first home buyers get the discount of 1% stamp duty? Looks like we’re all missing something.

    At the end of the day, the price will catch up with demand increases – government intervention (though welcomed) usually defeats its purpose.

    CT

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    With original question “worst to come”, as per one old man comment: The time to buy is when your own brother is on the streets.
    I am now watching my relatives starting to struggle. Not that they have no money, they just have to many loans.
    It looks like it will take another 2-3% interest rise to finish them off. That would be close to the bottom. So few more years are still ahead…..
    [glum]

    Profile photo of kingbrownkingbrown
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    say no more…


    Perth ‘more expensive than Sydney’

    Ben Sharples

    November 03, 2006 12:00pm
    Article from: AAP

    PERTH is set to overtake Sydney for the title of Australia’s most expensive property market, with those on the east coast stagnating, an industry analyst says.

    Property information group Australian Property Monitors (APM) also warns that another interest rate rise next year will have a significant impact on the nation’s property market.

    The resources boom is driving up property prices in Perth and Darwin, with APM saying the margin between median house prices for Australia’s most expensive capital city, Sydney, and Perth is now only 5.5 per cent.

    Profile photo of zen1zen1
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    You left something out.

    Mr McNamara said the huge rises experienced by Perth were clearly unsustainable, with APM predicting the Perth and Darwin property markets will reach their peak in the December quarter 2006.

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20694335-37037,00.html

    Profile photo of fernfurnfernfurn
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    I thought it was only the FHB that were getting the discount, but I read in the paper today it was everybody. I still think for the person who has found their perfect home 1% wont hold them back, but for the FHB 1% is pretty crucial

    Fern

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    Well tomorrow will be interesting with interest rates …

    Many experts have been saying that the property market has bottomed however recent news is indicating that Sydney will come back another 10%.

    What do you think will happen to the other states???

    D

    Profile photo of kpkp
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    Originally posted by kingbrown:

    Perth info:

    After reading this post, there seems to be some confusion about “why” Perth is still booming.

    All of these facts can be confirmed:

    * Currently the lowest unemployment in Australia. In fact, the lowest unemployment EVER recorded in any city of Australia.

    * Second highest (highest now?) average wage in Australia.

    * The houses in WA are generally larger, on larger blocks of land. Compare inner city Perth to inner city Melb or Sydney, the houses and land in Perth (especially the land) are larger. Comparisons are apples v oranges.

    * Wages are now high across the board – situations such as recent accounting grads are now getting paid 100k, not just the “laborers and miners” you read about.

    * Perth is the second fastest growing city in Australia (after Brisbane). This is a long term trend. Currently 100 people a day (approximately). This is a large number for a city of only 1.5 million.

    * The commodities market will of course cycle, but – the world will need more resources in the next few decades than it has ever needed. WA has A LOT of resources, and can meet demand.

    There is so much misconception about Perth from the “rest” of Australia. My opinion is that if people REALLY new what Perth was like, prices would be even higher.

    On another popular property forum, I stated that the Perth median would EASILY crack 400k this year (I stated that about 18 months ago). There was utter disbelief. Well, we know how that one turned out.

    Perth will EASILY become the highest median price in Australia, surpassing Sydney, I would expect within 6-12 months. Do the numbers – it won’t take much of a fall in Sydney, nor much of a rise in Perth for this to happen.

    I own in Melb, Sydney, and Perth. My next purchase will be in Perth, based on CG alone. I have lived in all three cities – all are magnificent, but Perth hits the sweet spot in so many regards.

    For example, I have just made an offer on a 850sqm block with house less than 6kms (about 10 minutes peak hour drive) from the CBD, less than 1 km from the Swan River, that is zoned triplex. Price – $380k.

    126k for a block of land in a state that is booming with high wages, low unemployment, and great weather???

    THAT is a bargain.

    Now back to lurking.

    Great post !

    I think its this paradigm shift that everyone is having trouble accepting that Perth can surpass Sydney on median price.
    Part of this Sydneycentric view of the world.

    When you travel internationally, you will find that even Sydney ( or Australia) doesn’t rate on the world stage as being newsworthy.

    Probably the last thing reported in the international press was when Steve Irwin died.

    Nothing has happened here since !!

    Perth and WA is just going through a catch up phase,( prabably 20 yrs behind the Eastern States) and the mining and stamp duty royalties are fuelling the govt spending on infrastructure projects that are well over due.

    Its the perfect development storm where all sectors are firing ( mining, infrastructure projects, commercial and residential projects, industrial projects, etc) and overlayed over each other which has led to a chronic shortage of manpower and equipment to get the job done. Nett result is delays and therefore this growth and development will take years to complete.

    Property prices will stay up as a result.

    kp

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    ABC current affairs dedicated their first 45 minutes (1 hour ) of the Midday bulletin covering the crash in Sydneys outer west.

    Not a slump a crash, property selling for 850K at castle Hill by owners eventually sold for 680k by Bank who would no longer wait.

    Some agents say 50-90% of auctions are Mortgagee but banks are instructing agents not to disclose the fact,

    One agent said worse he had seen at the fairfield area in 32 Years.
    Another agent in Bankstown said he had seen more forecloseures in 6 months than in previous 16 years.

    One agent said foreclosures is his main business now, done 25-30 in last 6 months but only 15 sales.

    Properties selling for half of the boom price is a recurring theme.

    Sheriff turning up with locksmith and agent and simply putiing people in the street, with the clothes they are wearing and what they can pack in less than an hour.

    40K families are in arears with their loans and most are refinancing hoping the market will turn.

    Banks are mostly okay as most covered by loan insurance.

    ABC were asked to leave two pre auction inspections.

    AND ………………………. we will probably get a new rise tomorrow, just heard job vacancies are up. Got to cool the economy somehow.

    Reminds me of 1991. The 17% was actually on felt by a few, a lot were happily sitting on 11% and were benefiting from the effect 14% inflation had on houses.

    Not a lot hurting, but enough to kill Sydney market.

    Are we there yet…think we are.

    Profile photo of kpkp
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    Originally posted by wealth4life.com:

    Well tomorrow will be interesting with interest rates …

    Many experts have been saying that the property market has bottomed however recent news is indicating that Sydney will come back another 10%.

    What do you think will happen to the other states???

    D

    I think you need to look at specific segments of the market.
    At the lower and median level, it may slow down or stall, but at the top end the interest rate level will have no effect.

    Its not ‘hurting’ yet at this stage.
    SOme markets arer simply experiencing a chronic shortage of housing ( regional and mining areas) and it will have no effect here. They are simply trying to catch up with a 2 yr backlog of required houses and it will take 2 to 3 yrs to achieve this.

    Simple survival requirements such as a roof over your head.
    Till this is satisfied, the property market will stay strong..

    kp

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    [
    When you travel internationally, you will find that even Sydney ( or Australia) doesn’t rate on the world stage as being newsworthy.

    Hmmmmmm …. guess thats why when you look at LA ,NY, Tokyo, Paris amd London, one of them has dropped out of the the five most expensive cities in the world to make way for Perth
    (Based on income to med property price)

    Profile photo of kingbrownkingbrown
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    Picking one dodgy statistic to make a point is SO last year.

    Fun facts :

    WA produces 40% of Australia’s export revenue. Yes, forty percent.

    In other words, Perth bust = AUSTRALIA BUST.

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    Originally posted by kingbrown:

    Picking one dodgy statistic to make a point is SO last year.

    Fun facts :

    WA produces 40% of Australia’s export revenue. Yes, forty percent.

    In other words, Perth bust = AUSTRALIA BUST.

    Yes, …. your point is ????????????

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