All Topics / Overseas Deals / Latest NZ Market News – FYI!

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  • Profile photo of Kiwi-FullaKiwi-Fulla
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    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    thanks for the articles kiwi!!

    I Buy Property http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Kiwi-FullaKiwi-Fulla
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    No Wukkas!! DLPP

    Cheers,
    Kiwi

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi Guys

    thanks for the update.

    Interesting times ahead for the NZ market.

    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of flashflash
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    It’s strange you know,you see these articles of doom and gloom and think there is major concern for all NZ.
    Whereis Dolf De Roos still has confidence in certain parts of Newzealand like Queenstown and Invercargvill and has the majority of holdings in these places.

    He predicts strong growth to continue purely based on supply vs demand and is saying that will beat the NZ average of 10% a year for the last 50 years.

    He also likes Pheonix,Arizona (USA) based on the same principals

    You look at Queenstown and you think surely this place can’t go any higher.

    Think again say’s Dolf De Roos

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi flash

    personally I wouldn’t be investing in Queenstown or Phoenix at the moment.

    Unless your into some sort of development where you can get in and out quickly, certainly would be buying now for a buy and hold in those two cities.

    Nothing against those places i love them both , and they are about as opposite as you can get.

    Queenstown in the middle of mountains with a beautiful lake
    Phoenix in the Middle of the desert and no water

    Queenstown population about 10,000
    Phoenix about 3,500,000

    Queenstown limitied land to grow
    Phoenix unlimited land to grow

    But both have done very well historically thats why i think both are in need of a break.

    actuallyi think both cities are already peaked certainly Queenstown lost value recently, and haven’t seen Phoenix’s data but its predicted to drop
    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of flashflash
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    Hi Westan,

    Yes his focus seems to be more into development in these places

    in the current market don’t see the positives either buying there ,although would like a house over looking the lake and mountains.

    I’ll wait a couple more years and see what happens

    Cheers

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi Flash

    there wouldn’t be too many nicer places to live in the world than Queenstown, when we were living in NZ we had friends who had a holiday home there. We would spend as much time as possible holidaying at it more than they did !. i loved the views. From the main bedroom we looked out at snow capped mountains (making me NZ sick – can’t say homesick as aussies my home). i haven’t missed NZ all that much except for friends and when i think of it the scenery is sensational everywhere.

    Is dolf still active in these markets ? Or has he moved on to new places ?

    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of flashflash
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    Yes he still is active there.
    His Unlisted property trusts is doing developments there.
    You can look it up on his website.

    Through his recent newsletter saw a video clip in early April 2006 talking up these places,he was doing one of his property tours with clients.
    It’s worth watching ,see if you can find it.

    Try this link
    http://www.dolfderoos.com/survey/thankyou1.asp

    Cheers

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Hi Flash,

    You are on the money there- alot of long term investors are focusing on the south especially invercargill because of the areas economic future.

    Just from this weeks press – quantas visited this week and are close to signing a deal to take the slots for weekly international flights. runway upgrade complete already taking 737 traffic.

    Exxon Mobile (the worlds largest oil company) is in court with government wanting access to data about the great southern basin oil reserves – commentators are comparing the size of the reserves to that of the maui filed which produced oil for r30 years.

    southland 4 out of 5 star asb bank economic rating – equal highest in the nation – auckland 2 out of 5.

    employment growth 8 times national average

    I just spoke to a builder about building some town houses on one of my sections and they are happy to do it but can’t start any new work for 18 months as they are busy building new homes for families that are moving this way for work.

    Southland 3% of nations population – accounts for 18% of exports. Dollars back to historical levels so even more jobs this way.

    Speaking of dolf – quest apartments have just opened up in competition to his living space services apartments – and new business is poping up all over the place, big and small, in competition with existing business or in other words the size of the market for goods and services is growing. These business are national franchises. If you have 500k to spend you can secure a pretty decent commercial property with one of these businesses as a tenant.

    The dunedin paper – neighbour city has just done a – 10 page spread on the rise and rise of invercargill (got an email friendly verson if anyone wants to have a look) . BUT its a big country and we are investing all over the place and their are plenty of opportunites nation wide (please don’t buy in towns under 10,000 people without underlaying growth ) I just like to stick up for my adopted home town. There are some pretty good opportunities in chch and dunedin also.

    I Buy Property http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Richard TaylorRichard Taylor
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    Dan

    Interesting to read your comments i was under the impression the market was dead and going backwards.

    May i can start referring my clients to you again.

    Richard Taylor
    Residential & Commercial Finance Broker
    **NODOC loans from 6.89%**
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    Ph: 07-3720 1888

    Richard Taylor | Mortgage Broker helping investors build their wealth thru property
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    0-40 Properties in a decade with a unencumbered portfolio value in excess of $40M. Ask me for a copy of my API Interview.

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi guys

    Don, there is certainly a great story about the possibilities for Invercargill – get a hold of the “the lost Oil field” or something like that i can’t find my copy to see the right name but the author states there is a huge reserve of Oil south of NZ that was found by Hunt Petroleum in the 1970’s. There is also the possibility of the Lignite power generator ($2 Billion project), silica smelter etc. So there is plenty happening but the big picture of invercargill may not help the local real estate market.

    Whats your take on current rental demand , has it improived ?
    As the economy slides i expect buyers will vanish- after all its all about supply and demand- thats whayt drives up markets.

    whats your take on the factures?

    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Westan says

    As the economy slides i expect buyers will vanish- after all its all about supply and demand- thats whayt drives up markets.

    Local NZ Data (just todays news stories not hard to find the facts if your look)

    International monetary fund, new zealand government and world bank say –

    Print this page

    Unemployment Lowest For 20 Years
    10/05/2006 11:01 AM
    NewstalkZB
    The number of New Zealanders on the unemployment benefit has reached a 20 year low.

    Since Labour took office in 1999, the number of people receiving the benefit has dropped by more than 116,000.

    There are currently 44,549 people receiving an unemployment benefit.

    Minister for Social Development and Employment David Benson-Pope says the last time levels were this low Billy T James was New Zealand’s most popular entertainer and women were wearing leg warmers.

    He says the total number of people receiving a benefit is now 283,000, down more than 117,000 since 1999.

    Find this item at:
    http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmoney

    NZ Finances In The Black
    05/05/2006 04:31 PM
    Reuters
    The New Zealand government is effectively debt-free and its strong fiscal position is a major reason the economy will comfortably weather the current slowdown, the Finance Minister said.

    Michael Cullen said accounts for the nine months to March 31 to be released on Friday would show the government’s assets were more than its liabilities, the first time it had been in such a position since records began in 1972.

    “We have spent and invested wisely, built up assets like the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and repaid debt to the extent that we can now celebrate an enviable status among developed nations,” Cullen said in a speech to a business group.

    He said as at March 31 the government’s net financial position was a surplus of NZ$400 million ($256 million).

    The government’s strong fiscal position had meant the country was in a position to face the short-term slowdown in growth.

    “It is clear that, after an extended period of exhilarating growth, the economy has slowed down as a number of imbalances are corrected,” Cullen said.

    “The consensus is that 2006 will be a year of very flat economic growth.”

    Inflationary pressures remained uncomfortably strong, the current account deficit — 8.9 percent of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2005 — was set to worsen, while the benefits of a 6 percent decline in the NZ dollar so far this year would take time to come through.

    The economic downturn would also mean a reversal in the government’s fiscal position, and although a strong surplus was expected in the fiscal year to June 30, this was expected to be the last for some time.

    “We will be moving into a significant cash deficit situation totalling around NZ$7 billion over the next four years, which will require some additional borrowing,” Cullen said.

    The government would maintain its tight fiscal policy in the forthcoming budget to be delivered on May 18. ($1=NZ$1.56)

    Find this item at:
    http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmoney/0,,13276-5732250,00.html
    ©2006 Xtra Limited

    IMF Says NZ Growth To Slow To 0.9%
    05/05/2006 11:02 AM
    Reuters
    New Zealand, which is forecast to see growth slow to 0.9 percent this year from 2.2 percent in 2005, has substantial room to maneuver on monetary policy with inflation likely being little changed from 2005, the International Monetary Fund said.

    Inflation is projected to be 3.1 percent in 2006 compared with 3.0 percent the year before, the IMF said in its so-called Article IV review of the economy.

    “With underlying inflation likely on a downward path, monetary policy tightening has paused for the time being, and there is substantial room for maneuver if the economy slows too abruptly,” the IMF said in a statement.

    Find this item at:
    http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmoney/0,,13276-5736465,00.html

    So analysing the data we find that;

    House price growth is easing not crashing.

    The economy is slow and sustainable growth – not crashing

    Inflation is in check sliglty higher than last year or .o1 percent higher .

    Unemployment lowest in 20 years

    Dollar lower increasing export demand and export contracts also increase buying power for overseas investors

    Monetary policy plenty of room to move if growth slows to quickly – ie possible interest rates falls on the horizon.

    just a few facts for those interested

    I Buy Property http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi Don

    you seem very defensive about this, i was just asking questions.

    I get the feeling that you are upset with me ! Is it because i chose to sell out of NZ. It was my decision, one i’m prepared to wear for better or worse. At the moment for Better as i see the Dollars Plumett to 1.24. I’m glad i got out of NZ. the currency is about 15% lower than when i got the cash out of NZ. The future will tell if i made the correct call.

    However with the dollar so weak it may mean that NZ opportunities arise for those wanting to invest in NZ.

    I was asking what your take was on the ground are buyer still there ? are vacancy rates high or improved?

    In reffereance to the articles, I read them and i think you have overlooked some of the Facts
    A $7 Billion deficit doesn’t sound healthy for a small country. There were lots of other messages in those statements, even if NZ doesn’t move into Recession like i said 12 months ago it was going to The economy has gone flat. I haven’t seen the latest data but the last figure i saw showed the NZ economy had shrunk (Jan 06). One more negative and thats a recession.

    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Hi Westan,

    Do you want me to tell you that it is a good idea to invest in NZ again?

    Are you in or out of NZ – your website says you still do NZ as does your recently changed tag line. It is a curious position given you are so vocally negative about NZ.

    Can’t have it both ways my friend.

    Regards

    Don

    I Buy Property http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi Don

    i don’t think i’m trying to have it both ways as i’m NOT buying in NZ and i’m not enouraging anyone to buy in NZ and i’m not offering NZ as part of our service through any of my business’.

    In regards to our website http://www.iproperty.net.au under the “New Zealand” page we actually say

    We do not actively promote investing in NZ, but we still have good contacts there, so if you are really keen on investing there, then contact us with your specific requirements

    and we do not charge for any assistance we offer in regards to NZ.

    As far as my Tag goes, it doesn’t say i promote NZ as “Property Investing New Zealand Ltd” is the Company name of one of my businesses.

    So Don i’m not trying to have it both ways. I get contacted quite often from people wanting to buy in NZ, i could add NZ back in as a part of our service but i can’t as i don’t feel right about NZ. I have evaluate the the situation and decide NZ is not for me, then its not right for me to promote it to others. I’m sure your the same, except you evaluated the data and decided NZ is for you, fair enough.

    Don i’m not trying to kick NZ all the time, just give a different perspective, especially late last year when everyone was promoting the heck out of NZ i was trying to give another perspective as an investor who had invested very heavily in NZ and decided it was time to move out. Back in 2003 it was Minimogul and myself who really lead so many Australians from this forum to invest in NZ. Then i was saying get out of australia and take it to NZ. A lot of people on this forum did exactly that. They did exceptionally well.

    Who know one day i might decide that the situation has changed again and NZ presents itself as an opportunity i’d like to be involved in again. Today isn’t that day.

    Regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of Kiwi-FullaKiwi-Fulla
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    Hi There,
    Some good points on both sides…. I like the fact that we all have different opinions and views….. That is what makes the proeprty cycle go round…. those that pull the pin when the other sheep start bleeting”(noise sheep make when they are looking for thier young!)…. and those that know that if they stick to what they know then they will also make great profits out of a market that is going backwards or flattening sideways.

    I believe that as the sheep follow the herds of media around baying about market booms and busts in realestate…. then the seheep hear that hte Share market is doing well and they move to the greener pastures there…. then that investing market goes bust …. then the sheep move to Commercial property…. and then back to residential again…. (over a period of years)….. I think this is FANTASTIC!!!!
    Why?
    Because over 75% of investors of any vehicle(Bricks, Shares or Business property) …. Eitehr LOSE Money … or at best break even. This is usually a very painfull experience and they just vow never to go through it again. – However there are still more sheep to fill the pen as it empties… so the opportunities continue no matter what!!

    As soon as the market shifts down 5% or so, the media need to sell papers, (and see an opportunity to sell more this week) they bleat about the bust is coming!! (Henny Penny the Sky is falling)….. however this could only be a blip on the radar…. Ths make the inexperienced investor worry so much that they make a financial decision to pull the pin!!! this has an effect as the more peopel they coe in contact with they tell the same story (Bust… Bust Bust…) and before long house prices are adjusting negatively.

    Another interesting opinion is that less than 4% of the world pool of property investors own 5 or more properties!…. This points toward the nature of humans to have it all now and if it is boring (Which property can be most of hte time) they ditch it for some more stimulating and Exciting investment strategy.

    The biggest error Newbie investors seem to make are:
    Not Limiting exposure to:
    – Interest rates
    – Vacancy
    – Malicious Damage
    – Over inflated buy price
    – Hidden faults in property that can cost a packet

    Not Having (and Sustaining) the focus, fortitude, mental toughness and ability to continue to delay gratification.

    Listening to the media nad any other soap box speakers without thoroughly investigaing all aspects of the industry and making a well informed decision to take a position in the market place…….

    Best of luck all with your endeavours!
    Cheers
    Kiwi[strum]

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    That is what makes the proeprty cycle go round…. those that pull the pin when the other sheep start bleeting”(noise sheep make when they are looking for thier young!)…. and those that know that if they stick to what they know then they will also make great profits out of a market that is going backwards or flattening sideways.

    Sage words Kiwi

    and sometimes the sheep just won’t stop bleeting and it becomes hard to hear anything else.

    10% Yield Deal available NOW!!!

    I Buy Property http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    Hi Guys

    Ok i must be a sheep then Baaaa [biggrin]

    History shows sometimes its better to be out of the market. Especially New Zealand Real Estate History.

    I know you guys get sick of me saying this but why not move your money to where you can get the best returns. NZ was great i have over 80% in 2 years but for the next 2 years i would have been lucky to hold the money i made, so i’ll move the cash to where it can work best for me.
    Sometimes buy and Hold is the a great strategy but sometimes it isn’t

    regards westan

    USA deals, cash flow equity and capital growth all in one property.
    International Property Consulting Pty/Ltd.
    Property Investing New Zealand Ltd
    http://www.iproperty.net.au

    Profile photo of Kiwi-FullaKiwi-Fulla
    Member
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    Hey Westan,
    I am happy you have made a motza of cash[biggrin]…

    Many people use different strategies and I respect that as we are all on the different path of success.

    NZ still has good merits though:
    – NO STAMPS
    – NO Capital Gains Tax (if you are set up right)
    – Low Unemployment
    – Good thriving communities and economy
    – People in need of solving their everyday financial problems
    – Good yeilds (above 10%)

    I understand that there are people concerned about exchange rates etc…. so …. get your finance in the same country as you invest to mitigate that risk [biggrin]. I have always enjoyed NZ as it is my homeland… The people are great and the lifestyle rivals many other wonders of the world!

    I was not saying that you were a sheep….. however many people follow blindly those they believe are successful in thier fields.
    Best of luck with your endevours!
    Kiwi
    [baaa]

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