Sydney – Next Boom

My own view that a likly boom will occure before the end of the decade. But I suspect that rather than really steep growth the market will go up at a steady rate between 2008-2012 after that it depends on our ageing population

Nigel Kibel

http://www.propertyknowhow.com.au

Australian and New Zealand Buyers advocate
service and seminars

I think the next boom will be at 10:06pm to be honest

I think it will be a long time yet. How long after the last boom? 1990, to about 1998? That’s about 8 years. Only had 2 flat years now. Values now are still too high. The market simply just got ahead of itself. Average people on average wages could no longer afford an average house. Property will stay flat until it’s good value again.

Also, the sharemarket is on a role, and is still not expensive. As long as the sun still rises in the east, it will get expensive, and it will bust. It’s just a cycle that always happens, and it will bust just as the hype takes over and the first time mums and dad investors start buying up. When the sharemarket bust has happened in the past, property often takes off from then. eg, 1987, and tech crash 2000. Could be wrong. Just speculating like everyone else.

Good luck.

It depends what you mean by “boom.”
Remember the boom stage is the shortest stage of the property cycle and in my opinion the hardest time to make money.

In general property cycles occur in our major capital cities every 7 years. Both Melbourne and Sydney’s booms ended about 2 years ago in late 2003 helped by 2 interest rate rises.
Brisbane’s boom ended a little while and Perth’s boom is still going.

Melbourne and Sydney have been in the slump stage of the cycle for a while now. We have evidence of price growth in the more expensive suburbs of Melbourne up to 10% increase in property values in some of teh suburbs we are buying in. Residex reports a similar finding in Sydney saying the slump has bottomed.

But that does not mean we are going to boom for a few years yet.

I agree with Nigel Kibel’s previous comment that Sydney’s boom is afew years off yet. (Wehn you have been in property for a few cycles like Nigel and I – you can pick the cycles a bit better)

But even though the boom is 3 to 5 years away, property prices will increase.

These next few years will deliver some great buying opportunities – we are in a buyer’s market. During a boom we are in a vendor’s market.

If you want to learn more about property cycles and why they occur, all new subscribers to my free emagazine get an ebook on property cycles and how to take advantage of them. You can subscribe at http://www.metropole.com.au

Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.metropole.com.au

I agree with See Change – Kieron Trass’book is the best I have read on cycles and should be on every investors bookshelf.

Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.metropole.com.au

Taxes are a necessary evil but where some countries’ highest MTR is 10-15%, I often wonder where Mr Howard is spending our hard earned dollars. Since I live here by choice, I shouldn’t complain too much but it sure sux when half your bonus virtually disappears before you.

I agree with most that Syd and Melb won’t take off in the next couple of years at least. I know a few people who just bought in high in debt to their eyeballs cos of exxy PPOR. Some may even have -‘ve equity but I try not to bring that up in dinner conversations. People just aren’t jumping over each other to get into the market. Well, not jumping over investors anyway. I agree with Michael that in this enviromnent if you find the desperate vendor, could get yourself a bargain. Anyone know a desperate vendor…..

Michael and Seechange , I liked your thoughts and agree.
Cheers Rick

Monopoly, my favourite game