The impact on other states

Hi Gina,

My take on the situation is as follows.

Initially the poorly informed people will endeavour to sell up before the new stamp duty is imposed and as such there may be some semblance of a buyers market in parts of NSW.

Little do these people realise the long term fundamental reasons for initially buying ‘that’ property still largly remain the same. Any increases in either land tax or stamp duty will partially come back to the investor either through increased tax deductions or reduced capital gains liabilities.

If the property was well researched and as performing well over the long term the reasons for hanging on remaim the same.

Now as to what effect the new tax has on price movements in Qld it is really difficult to predict.

I suspect most ‘serious investors’ (how ever that is determined) had been previously diversifying their investment portfolio anyway including into Qld. I do think there will be a herd like movement, as distinct from a rush, across NSW borders – even in WA we are already seeing NSW people moving into WA markets in greater numbers – which will/may create little growth spurt above and beyond the rosey predictions anyway.

The tip – poorly informed investors who haven’t done the long term math will sell up and get out whereas the well informed people will continue to buy and hold for the long haul – just as they have done in the past – they will do in the future.

An investigation of world, national, state and local events (wars, economics, inflation, trading crisis, inflation rates) over the last 45 years clearly demonstrates there has always been a reason to not buy property – yet the successful people continued to do so and experienced success.

My take on the tax changes (with some more think time involved and recognising the bigger picture) is that life will go on and well chosen property will continue to be successful irrespective of the state it was bought in.

Derek
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