All Topics / General Property / Regional/Country property predictions

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  • Profile photo of holdencommodoreholdencommodore
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    @holdencommodore
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 88

    Hey everyone,
    Just interested as to what you think will happen with country/regional properties now (mainly in Victoria) and throughout the near future… Any comments/views/predictions? Better yet, any relevant experiences to show the current market and reasons for purchasing?
    Replies would be very much appreciated!

    (“,) $$$ HoLdEnCoMmOdOrE $$$ (“,)

    Profile photo of agedownunderagedownunder
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    @agedownunder
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 15

    I have purchased a property in Mudgee NSW in June 2001 2×3 bedroom houses on a 850 sq meter block.

    I paid $242500
    They rent for $200 and $185 ( I put air-conditioning in one so far )
    The value now is in excess of $400000

    Mudgee was among the top 10 in real estate growth last year ( I think in rural NSW )

    Mudgee has a strong economy linked to Mining and Wine making industry.

    I think Wellington NSW will soon be a good place to invest because;

    There will be a prison built there due for completion around the end of 2005, The staff will no doubt require housing and as this type of employer seems to turnover staff not all of them will be buying as an ppr.

    As for Victoria I cant say too much but generally look for a town or city with a good industrial employment history.

    Is there a more than one large employer there ?

    Has real estate been growing there consistently for more than the last three years?

    Most importantly get to know the values in the market you intend to invest in.

    How long does it take to sell a house there? The faster the better!

    “My first post in this forum”

    Regards
    Age

    Buy new!
    Never Sell!

    Profile photo of geogeo
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    @geo
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    Post Count: 1,194

    Predictions…no one can ever make predictions – only assumptions and assumptions are generally bad.

    R.K once said and I quote,
    “Predicting a crash is like prdicting winter – Big Deal!”

    The way I see it is that as long as interest rates stay the same, there will still be the affordability by the average household to purchase their house – so no crash. When interest rates rise, most people will no longer be able to pay off their loan and will thus be forced to sell out and rent – that’s when investors can reap the rewards.

    I’m in VIC and their are some real good deals retuning the average 10+ percent in pos. cashflow – you just have to drive out a few hours into the country. I admit it is getting harder but they are still out there.

    Kind Regards,
    George.

    If You never never ask, you’ll never never know”

    Profile photo of holdencommodoreholdencommodore
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    @holdencommodore
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    Post Count: 88

    Thanks for the advice Age, nice to know people are doing well, and particularly to me as I think country will be the only way to start on a limited budget/income. Geo, I think I understand what you meant by your predictions-assumptions quote, but doubt its accuracy. Are you saying that the economic world relies on bad assumptions? Maybe the small-time or casual ‘mum & dad’ investors do that, however this forum has mostly knowledgable people, some having made millions from their study and predictions of their investments. Predictions are just as important as assumptions, and shouldn’t be written off on such a major investment as property.

    (“,) $$$ HoLdEnCoMmOdOrE $$$ (“,)

    Profile photo of RiskyRisky
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    @risky
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    I think country areas is the ideal opputunities for new investers to feel the waters without getting to burnt. Not only are there many positive cashflow properties available its a good training ground to learn how to complete all the areas involved with investing in real estate. The only downside that i have found with regional areas is the capital growth isnt as exciting as urban areas, although positive cashflow is more about cashflow than cap gains. So it also depends on the investers stratagie.( hmm need spell checker )

    regards Risky

    If you want the rainbow youve got to put up with the rain!

    Profile photo of richmondrichmond
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    @richmond
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    So there’s “many” positive cashflow properties available is there? I assume you ain’t talking about Australia here, because while they do exist, they’re hardly plentiful, and where they are located is sometimes questionable in terms of making an investment…

    Cheers
    r

    Profile photo of RugbyfanRugbyfan
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    @rugbyfan
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    As a Capital city investor (until I discovered +ve CF), I would have said steer clear. But I have opened my eyes to other opportunities. Whereas my wife and I had a goal to have 6 properties (-ve and neutral geared) in 10 years, we know realise we can have many more albeit cheaper regional ones.

    I think there are so many different factors that drive regional towns. Most of us sit in offices or at home in our capital cities and think that regional towns just follow us. Well this may well have been the case 20 years ago but definately not now.

    There are many country towns that have grown so much that very big businesses have been attracted to them. These companies are paying their exec’s v. good money to move to the regional centres. I see it often in NSW and this in turn helps the economies of the towns. Mining & rural industries are no longer what larger regional towns survive on.

    Just take a look at how many companies have their main plants or even head offices in regional areas of Australia.

    I guess to get back to your original question. As long as you pick the right area, regional properties and towns will continue to prosper.

    ‘Eat rich food, barbeque a yuppie’ [greedy]

    Profile photo of RiskyRisky
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    @risky
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    You assume wrong richmond I am talking Australia and yes ive been able to find “many” cashflow properties in country towns.How ever you are right saying some of these are questionable for investing, actually some are very questionable but I have based my stradigie (theres that spell checker again ) on cash flow . So for me personally my main objective is to keep the ip tennanted, and if I get capital gains then that is a bonus.[cigar]
    regards Risky

    If you want the rainbow youve got to put up with the rain!

    Profile photo of richmondrichmond
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    @richmond
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    fair enough risky, horses for courses I suppose. I stand by my comment that they aren’t plentiful…

    Cheers
    r

    Profile photo of taztaz
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    @taz
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    I also think there are a lot of factors at play…

    One that hasn’t come up yet is people’s desire to live in country areas. I think it is underestimated at times that there is demand because people like the country and want there kids to grow up that way…. and also IT is getting so good that… well frankly who needs to live in the city???

    Dont get me wrong I live in the city… but I know where I would rather live…. more like the fringe where there is acerage but still a reasonable travelling distance to the city….

    I have an employer that I could move to any centre ( say 10000k+) i like in australia and that’s not because I’m the bees knees at my job but the IT is good enough to make it happen and i could do the same job I’m doing in the city…

    taz

    Profile photo of RiskyRisky
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    @risky
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    Hi Richmond,
    Plentiful no but many yes, although i got to admit i havent even looked into vic regional , sounds like they have gained to much appreciation for pos cf investers. I have only looked and researched WA regional such as Collie, Wagin, Esperance and Geraldton which has a good population. All these towns (Geraldton is a city)you can still buy properties for under $65000.But again there is considerable more risk in my opinion due to the lack of great cap gains.

    If you want the rainbow youve got to put up with the rain!

    Profile photo of richmondrichmond
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    @richmond
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    Hi Risky,

    I like the look of Geraldton… but not Collie, Wagin or Esperance… yeah they’re regional service towns for surrounding farming districts, but not overly enticing for my goals… like I said horses for courses. Geraldton though looks good… growing population, diverse industry base etc. Only problem is that those 65k houses don’t necessarily get $130 pw + in rent… How far down the track are you with pursuing your strategy?

    Cheers
    r

    Profile photo of RiskyRisky
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    @risky
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    I have missed the boat a bit for gero however i did purchase 2 properties there about 3 months ago, which have both settled and have one rented and pm still working on the other. Im not peticularly worried as at the time alot of investers had come in and bought alot and i mean alot of bottom end priced properties , hence the saturation of rental properties looking for tennants. However they have pretty much all been tennanted now so demand is creeping back in. I have also heard some good positive rumours regarding industry there. My stradigie is to purchase more positive cf properties to help finance my neg geared propertie and purchase another negitive geared ip in Perth so im not left sitting on the side lines as inflation and demand lifts housing in the city to new levels.Hope this makes sense Richo [strum]

    regards Risky

    If you want the rainbow youve got to put up with the rain!

    Profile photo of richmondrichmond
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    @richmond
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    perfect sense risky, good luck with it all

    Profile photo of RiskyRisky
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    @risky
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    [jerry] Cheers

    If you want the rainbow youve got to put up with the rain!

    Profile photo of kay henrykay henry
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    @kay-henry
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    holdencommodore :o)

    I agree with some of the comments others have made about the possibility of entering the market on an average income. It’s just not possible to do that in many cities of Australia now, and rental return in regionals/towns is *generally* higher than in cities :) Buying regional is a viable option post-boom.

    Check your fundamentals though about population stability/decline, any industry in the area and will it remain, is it a flood area etc etc. Think about 2004- not 1999- about possibilities of capital gain. It’s a thought to find areas that are still “undervalued” as in, didn’t freak out/doubled/tripled in price over the last few years, because you’ll be pricing yourself out of the market.

    Most media articles and experts (residex, commsec, REI’s etc) have expected prices to flatten somewhat. So you might really be looking to achieve max rental gain, and get your properties paid off by the tenant/tax dude, rather than expecting CG in the near future, although I am not sure the boom is over YET :o))

    taz, I know the country is lovely :) but there’s also realities borne out by the ABS and others- people are moving to cities and out of rural areas. This has been happening for at least a decade as young people move away to find empoloyment and training opportunities. Baby oomers/retirees are more likely to move to the coast rather than a <5000 rural town. People demand services these days- particularly older people- hospitals, doctors, community centres etc.

    holdencommodore, I think many regional towns (however one defines them- I’d probably think it was easily above 25,000) have far fewer CF+ since the boom. I reckon you’ll have to go to small towns to find them. Even places like geraldton have mostly fringe areas that have decent rental returns these days.

    Best of luck with it!! Regional areas are great to get your foot in the door!!

    kay henry

    Profile photo of RussHRussH
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    @russh
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    Risky.You are on the right road.If I had the money I would be in regional investing too,THe eastern staters dont have a clue about W.A. Like Steve says get to know your area by spending time there.We have some great areas here in W.A and even tho they all dont have capital gain they are good +cf.Gero is a great place and growing.Most of our towns have good industry as well as tourism.Remember that its the return on investment that counts. dont matter where so long as it works.dont worry too much about cap. gain go for cash flow.

    So many +CF properties out there.Let me help you and achieve a win win situation.Russ.

    Profile photo of holdencommodoreholdencommodore
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    @holdencommodore
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    Post Count: 88

    Thankx for the advice Kay, Ill try to find out more info ’bout the towns I was looking at… although I havent really concentrated on one particular area yet – even those few questions reagarding each town will help me to filter out a lot of towns… Thanks!

    (“,) $$$ HoLdEnCoMmOdOrE $$$ (“,)

    Profile photo of RugbyfanRugbyfan
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    @rugbyfan
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    Originally posted by RussH:

    Risky.You are on the right road.If I had the money I would be in regional investing too,THe eastern staters dont have a clue about W.A. Like Steve says get to know your area by spending time there.We have some great areas here in W.A and even tho they all dont have capital gain they are good +cf.Gero is a great place and growing.Most of our towns have good industry as well as tourism.Remember that its the return on investment that counts. dont matter where so long as it works.dont worry too much about cap. gain go for cash flow.

    So many +CF properties out there.Let me help you and achieve a win win situation.Russ.

    That’s a bit of a generalisation isn’t it. Being an Eastern Stater (although I was born in WA and my family live there), I am not in a minority that are looking at investing in WA. The only issue is I am looking for more than just a positive cash flow. Hell, if I wanted just +CF, I could have bought 20 properties in towns such as Mount Magnet, Norseman, Pemberton and the like. But just because the figures stack up that does not mean they are a sound investment.

    If you are 100% confident that +CF is the only factor in your property purchase then I wish you luck. I for one, prefer a mix with a sprinkling of CG in there as well.

    ‘Eat rich food, barbeque a yuppie’ [greedy]

    Profile photo of kay henrykay henry
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    @kay-henry
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    I have to agree with you, Rugby :+P

    Russ, everything’s global with the internet. You can find out pretty much everything about a location on the internet- *much* more than one would have been able to find out ten years ago. I check out Council Plans, population demographics, media on the area, local newspapers, health reports, employment statistics, rental returns, flood details, fireant presence, soil salinity, ABS data- everything basically, on the net.

    The last two IP’s I bought I didn;t see before I bought. And if we’re gonna refer to guru’s, Margaret Lomas said today she hasn;t seen 3 of her IP’s EVER. Really, though, it doesn;t matter what other people say- ultimately, it’s up to each person to do their own research. Research is essential. To me, going to the location is not. We all have our own strategies, and if they work, then it is up to each of us how we do it.

    kay henry

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