Hi all,
Prices have stopped rising (in most areas) and perhaps will drop in regional and some areas.
Just wondering when people think the next rise will happen again – i.e. 2 years, 5 years, 10 years…
Personally, I’m not sure…….[
] but if I had to pick a date I’d think the slump might last for 2-3 years, and then start rising again.[]Any thoughts,
Del
Hi Wilandel,
probably gonna be a different answer from most people, but depending on were you invested… havent really felt any slump in the property prices, some areas of investments are still rising but very steadily…. but are not performing as quick as they did in the early part of last year….
… though again, depending, were you invested, some people might have felt a bit of a decline in prices or seeing the IP flatten out in price.
Cheers,
sisfrom the weekend West Australian:
“BIS Shrapnel forecaster Robert Mellor said no major downward pressure on house prices was forecast but rather that price growth in most capital cities would continue at a more constrained level. A key finding in WA was that underlying demand in Perth was forecast to improve from 2003/04…” “Growth in the median house price of 28 percent was forecast over the three years to June 2006, although most of that growth would take place in this and next financial years, before possible rises in housing interest rates slowed price growth significantly in 2005/2006”.
You would be doing yourself an injustice if you think the housing market is dead just yet. If prices fall, buy. If prices are going to go up, buy faster! Also don’t confuse the bad press of inner city Sydney apartments with the general housing market.
Extensive list of new Perth property available for sale.Alternatively, become a joint venture partner in one of our property development partnerships – contact me to find out why our developments are unique. John – 0419 198 856
BIS Shrapnel issued a report last week where they expected prices to increase 9% in Melb and Syd over 3 years. So its effectively the same as inflation. But its better than a slump.
I tend to agree with their analysis.
I got this report from a post in this forum.
Interesting everyone,
No doom and gloom so far !!
It’s good to hear some positive words about property again.[^]
Del
Here is the report Yack is talking about
Pisces
Auspac Financei wonder how much fun paying into a negatively geared property will be for people if they’re not getting capital gain for 2-3 years.
When interest rates start to drop again, which will be a while, and not until all the heat has gone out of the property market which the gov’t thinks is overinflated,
the media will announce it with a whoop and holler and off we go again for another round of cap gains. next ride up the escalator, I’ll be there for sure. see you in 2-3 years.Del,
Hope all is going well with you- seems you’ve turned into a MaxiMogul from your TV interview- congrats :o)
I would have to say, that there will STILL be areas of growth in Australia- just depends on the city/town one is looking at- but I think they’re still around. A place I’ve been looking at has such potential for growth- new industry moving in (white collar so as not to foul up the air), council plans projecting huge growth etc. I can’t dismiss those fundamentals- now I just godda find the cash to buy there- hehe. Sorry to be mysterious, but ya know how it is :o))
I just think Australia still has a high demand for RE- not only for first homebuyers, but for an abundance of renters. I don;t think it’s quite over YET.
But seeing i’m not Residex, CommSec, BisSchrapenl etc, then I only have my own research to go on- which includes taking what all of them say into account, by the way. I don’t dismiss the media- on the contrary, I am a media slot, but I think there will always be areas that defy current “laws”.
kay henry
Not wanting to disappoint with regard to doom and gloom – here goes..
I think interest rates will rise to 9 or 10% and that will happen over the next 3 years. I expect that terrorism will increase now that Israel have moved onto the offensive. This will affect world stock markets and thus people will want property instead of shares to form the backbone of their retirement portfolios. This is however only worth doing if the supply and demand equation is right and one gets a reasonable yield and CG at the end of it. If the large developers continue to flood the market with new projects, this will put a huge question mark over the viability of property as a retirement instrument. An large oversupply of IP’s is my prediction and this will push yields down. At the same time prices of property need to drop by between 20 and 30% on average to return value to this asset class over the longer term. This will then in turn push up the yield if rents remain stationary. This is a complex question but I suspect that the analysts who do this for a living are probably right in the statements that it will take 10 years before another boom. It may be hard for some of you to accept but the boom is over! The downturn will probably last longer than you would like it to, no matter how much you will it not to!
Houses- I WANT the boom to be over- i’m buying, not selling :o) I am sure some first homeowners who were locked out due to the boom, would like it to be over too.
kay henry
For my market (Perth) BIS Shrapnel is forecasting a 28% rise in prices over the next 18 months and continuing, albeit slower, growth in other markets. This is a big discrepancy from a 20 to 30% drop. It seems interest rates have peaked as well. Everyone has a vested interest in the market moving one way or the other. Why do people have to keep claiming we are on the verge of a bust and cannot accept that the market is in balance and will continuing to tick along just nicely. I see no evidence of a bust for typical property (not sure about OTP apartments in Melbourne).
Extensive list of new Perth property available for sale.Alternatively, become a joint venture partner in one of our property development partnerships – contact me to find out why our developments are unique. John – 0419 198 856
Hi, from a number of seminars that I attended last year a fairly common notion is that property will continue to rise (3% – 10%) every year until 2007. The growth is obviously dependent on the area and proximity to infrastructure and ammenities. The baby boomers are still investing which is keeping up demand particularly for investment units as they are panicking that they cannot obviously retire with Supa alone. I can’t remember the actual year, but I think officially baby boomers were born around 1942 and they retire in 2007. There will be a big slump during this year as the baby boomers sell their investment units…….This is a view shared by many and at least it may give you another angle. I hope its right as I have a couple of negatively geare properties that I hope will continue to gain in capital growth. Like any investment portfolio we must be diversified and that is why I am currently hungary for positive cashflow properties. Right now I have no idea where to look and it seems quite difficult judging by the forum board.
Good luck with your investing.
Kind regards
Martin P Coogee NSW
<<<I can’t remember the actual year, but I think officially baby boomers were born around 1942 and they retire in 2007. >>>>
I think baby boomers were not born in just one year. I think its more like those born between 1940 to 1955. ie sort of after WW11.
Its all cyclic, I tend not to worry
i thought more of a chance 1 or 2 years in or out of 2011, that we would see a bit of crash from baby boomers pulling out, and selling off their properties and shares, affecting not only australia but some other country economies…
Cheers,
sisWherever they get their money from (I think most will be super – it’s only a 5 percent minority who have assets enough to support them in retirement isn’t it?) they will still need a place to live!
] but if I had to pick a date I’d think the slump might last for 2-3 years, and then start rising again.[
]
You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.
