Sorry Steve, I am not deliberately trying to break the rule about shares and commodities.
All of what I am talking about IS intimately connected to the real estate market.
Firstly I would like everyone to look at the following article http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/OST/dagger135/
There isn’t any need to subscribe to the guy’s newsletter to read the article. (though I think S.I.S. ought to, so he can report to us on the newsletter’s contents. [
] )Secondly I would like to remind everyone (as if you wouldn’t be well aware of it allready) how much the US dollar has dropped against other currencies (like for example the EuroDollar and also our dollar of course). [
] or should that really be [] ?O.K., here is the purpose of this post.
The australian dollar, getting stronger, will affect our exporters (in a detrimental way) whilst cheaper imports are likely to affect our manufacturing industries – or whatever is left for them )and all of this is bound to seriously affect our economy.
The questions which come to my mind, after reading the gold article and pondering about the increasing strength of the Australian dollar, are :
Is the world (and Australia in particular) in for a financial collapse ?
Will our employment suffer ?
How does everyone think this will affect the real estate market ???
Are the doomsayers correct when they suggest to us that for the time being we should hold off buying (real estate) ?
Pisces133
The decline of the US dollar has been an attempt by the Federal Reserve to kickstart the US economy and manage inflation internally.
However, economic trends are leading towards a much stronger US economy in 2004 which should see the US dollar strengthen and the status quo continue.
In effect, the negative impact on exporters in Australia should subside resulting in nothing more than a short-term “bump in the road”.
In terms of the strengthening AUD, Australia is somewhat reliant upon imports and direct foreign investment – which should counteract any severe negative consequences of a weakening US dollar. Although domestic manufacturing will feel the impact, revenues increase in other sectors.
And as has been the case in New Zealand, foreign investors are expected to assist with revitalizing the Australian real estate market in the near future – which can be considered a positive or negative, however it generally benefits the real estate market and economy overall.
“Are the doomsayers correct when they suggest to us that for the time being we should hold off buying (real estate)?”
Where would we be if the “doomsayers” – or pessimists, controlled our decisions.
— Michael
In recent days the media has focused on the negative effects of the rising Australian Dollar, it’s sometimes easy to loose sight of the fact that some 18 months ago, most of the same media were pointing out the doom and gloom prospects for the economy as the dollar dipped towards US 47c- Noel Whittaker
The Aussie dollar hit a 19 year high on the trade weighted index, a measure of the dollars performance against a basket of curriencies from the nations biggest trading partners..
At the end of 2003 against the US dollar
Australian dollar 1st a 33% rise
The Rand 2nd a 29% rise
The NZ dollar 3rd a 25% riseTourism, Mining and Agriculture will be affected by our strong dollar as will Australian Wines..!
‘Mad Cow’ disease ( no not PMT [:o)]) in the US strengthens the Aussie beef business, Indonesias closed its borders to US Beef allready
The rising dollar will be great news for importers ( Export bad Import good )and rising wages also expected
2004 my prediction- some good ,some bad and a dash of uncertainty thrown in
My share watchlist would’ve made me a ‘mint’ ( kicks himself ) oHH but only if i had the spare dollar$ to put into it [}
] bought the PPOR instead and it was the 5th best performing Suburb in the city.. so i’m happy []REDWING
“The man that thinks at 5o as he did when he was 20 has wasted 30 years of his life”
>>In recent days the media has focused on the negative effects of the rising Australian Dollar, etc<<
It isn’t so much the cold hard facts as the feelings such articles stir up in people’s minds (which in turn affects their economic behaviour).
Will ‘the news’ be strong enough to change people’s outlook towards real estate (be it buying, or selling) ?
Anyone ?
Pisces133
Hi Pisces,
Being a farmer and exporter, the Australian Dollar has made it an EXTREMELY difficult year for us.
We have got to the stage of trying to listing our Asparagus farm for sale…… Anyone interested???????
Regards,
Del
Del
No advertising … I don’t care if you are on teh MAP[:p][:p][:p]
Cheers
Leigh KCarve your own path and lead the way …
thats breaking the rules [:p][:p]
Cheers Matt
“If you do what you have always done, you will get what you have always had.”
“Isn’t it time for a change?”
>>We have got to the stage of trying to listing our Asparagus farm for sale…… Anyone interested???? <<
Sorry, it appears like too much hard work to me.
Pisces
Regarding the current economic situation (strong AUD, weak US economy).
Does this provide the ideal opportunity to invest in overseas property? By taking advantage of cheaper property prices in the US and a higher currency conversion.
Darren
Well that looks like a good way to get a tax deductable holiday, even if you finish up not buying anything [:o)]
Pisces
[
][]Sorry I forgot about the “No Advertising” rule!
[
][]Del
You should have put the price in your ad, if you are going to get into trouble it might as well be really big trouble![
]Cheers
LeighCarve your own path and lead the way …
Price ?
Del is actually prepared to pay you money to take it off his hands. (Sorry, that was a joke in bad taste)
Pisces
OUUUUUUCCHHHHHHHHHHHh Piscess, [
]I dont think ill be sitting b/w u 2 in a hurry …………LOL
Regards Bear
RE: “Does this provide the ideal opportunity to invest in overseas property? By taking advantage of cheaper property prices in the US and a higher currency conversion.”
The US real estate market is [in most states] at its peak for now. Comparing the two countries, US real estate is not on average “cheaper” than in Australia.
As you may be aware, interest rates are at the lowest in many years which led to a “boom” in the housing sector [you must be a US resident to take advantage of these interest rates]. In several parts of the country this surge in sales activity and appreciating property values is continuing.
Highly leveraged financing and home equity loans are likely to result in opportunities arising in the near future. But either way, given the same amount of time and effort, you are not likely to see returns that are still prevalent in Australia, although more so in New Zealand, for the foreseeable future.
— Michael
] )
] ?
] bought the PPOR instead and it was the 5th best performing Suburb in the city.. so i’m happy [
][
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