After spending the last week or so searching inner Melbourne for a “buy” and talking to many agents I am pretty sure that the current capital growth cycle has ended. Almost all said the market had gone flat or eased slightly and numbers coming to “opens” were well down.
Property is a long term plan.
I know I will be positioning myself for the next cycle – not waiting for it to happen.
Cheers,
Simon Macks
Mortgage Broker
[email protected]
0425 228 985Comments may not be relevant to individual circumstances. If you intend making any investment, financial or taxation decision you should consult a professional adviser.
G’day Enduser…
In my opinion it’s beeen over for some time.
Just the last bit of steam until a likely .5% interest rate rise in December. Even those that don’t want to accept it will come to realise that the Markert has had its day and falls of 10-25% in some areas will happen. So that’s the end of a six year Bull Run.Certainly, Property is a long term investment and goes in 5-7 year cycles generally. As you make your money when and where you buy we probably have a good 2 – 3 years of consolidation ahead of us. Do your research now, for the next cycle or pick up on forced sales. Next year will be an opportunity to maybe buy 2 year options, in the start of a buyers market….. take your time.
Cheers
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Real Estate,Mortgages,Share Market Strategies.
[email protected]Hi Bill
have just bought 3 properties in Rocky QLD
Have 4 in ipswich & 1 on the Sunshine Coast.Any advice on direction for me to take would be helpful regards daveG’day Dave…
3 properties…. Rockhampton
4 ^^^^^^^^ …..Ipswich
1 ^^^^^^^^ …..Sunshine Coast
Fair go Dave, need much more info
Bill
Bill O’Mara
Real Estate,Mortgages,Share Market Strategies.
[email protected]enduser,
Yes, the innerbelt of melby has had it. Many people bought off the plan apartments using equity in their own home- most of whom were probably first time investors, had inhouse valuations done (probably way overvalued), and thedy’ll find it difficult to get tenants for those generic apartments.
Most financial advisers, however, will recognise that there will be others who will continue their long-term RE investment plan, won;t buy based on hysteria or greed, and will continue to make wise choices in their investment decisions.
Don’t worry about the doomsayers. It’s likely the 20% dip in values was always there from the beginning. It’s very similar to the qld two-teired marketing of the 80’s and 90’s, except the targets of these overvalued apartments are first-time investors as opposed to interstate people. The 350-400k 1 bed-apartments in Docklands and Southbank may become the new slums of melbourne.
kay henry
Well here we go again!
Of course the cycle has to have a downturn and of course you know you shouldn’t have bought that last place at such a ridiculous price. You did your sums and worked out it was really worth 25-30% less than they were asking, but you still couldn’t help yourself! Oh well, that is called greed and fear. You feared that you would loss out and that someone else would beat you to it. You felt that there was still another 6-12 months of steam left in the bubble and wanted to make a fast buck!
What more can I say, only that some of us have been warning of this for some time but whenever we put out warnings, the industry (RE, MB, Developers, etc) as represented on this site have criticised us and called us doomsayers. Keep talking up the bubble fellas!
Hi Bill and all,
Quote:
“As you make your money when and where you buy we probably have a good 2 – 3 years of consolidation ahead of us. Do your research now, for the next cycle or pick up on forced sales. Next year will be an opportunity to maybe buy 2 year options, in the start of a buyers market….. take your time.”Excuse my ignorance, but what does 2-3 years of consolidation mean in this context???
And what is mean’t by 2 year options? Is it buy/hold for two yrs then sell?I hope someone can clarify that a little for me…
Thanks, keep smiling,
Sue [
]“Be careful not to step on the flowers when you’re reaching for the stars”
hehe HousesOnly- why don’t you tell us what you *really* think? [
]I agree that prices will decrease for *some* places. But if you go with some of the old rules- location, price, affordability etc, you should be ok.
I also agree with you re greed and fear. But I have to say, RE is a good way to make money (I won’t touch shares for ethical reasons). My process is- pay a fair price, charge reasonable rents- noone gets ripped off- neither vendors, nor tenants; and of course- do your homework on every purchase.
I didn’t mean “doomsayer” in a bad way. All I am suggesting is that, if one invests in RE sensibly, one doesn’t have to lose the shirt off one’s back, no matter what the market conditions.
HousesOnly- from your name, I presume you have some RE investment? Your message is a little ambiguous- kind of like having the nickname “SharesOnly” and then telling people whatever they do, not to buy shares!
kay henry
kay henry-lol, i do have IP and will still continue to invest in property and agree with your process and being fair. I just dont think that now is a great time to buy in general as those properties with good locations are overpriced. Having said that, there are always going to be good buys in any market conditions, just less right now. When the blood starts to flow through the streets next year after a few rate rises I will be back in buying mode.
On the subject of names, if “kay henry” is your username, might your real name be “henry kay”?-lolHousesOnly,
If my real name is henry kay, then, on that logic, your real name must be Only Houses, right??
I do like the name kay henry though. It got into my head when I found this forum ages ago but hadn’t yet joined, and when I did want to join, I kept it
)If anyone is interested in buying a little piece of your own oasis in melbourne, lemme know! hehe
kay henry
Hi Kay,
I am interested to see that you have formulated a process in your puchasing approach. Would you care to expand upon your thought process on the ethics to which you refer? Which types of investing do you see as unethical and why?
Regards, Phil
LuckyPhil,
I write this in the hope I will not get shot down. I am responding to a question to be polite, but if readers feel the need to slam me about it, then it’s a pity.
I took a decision not to invest in shares some time ago. In doing that, I also had to think over my reasons around the ethics of RE. I feel like I am not *justifying* my decision to purchase in RE, but have a consistency in my approach to it which neither harms vendors nor sellers. I am happy to discuss offline ([email protected]) my feelings about these things if anyone is interested- but certainly not so people can take the opportunity to think me naiive, idealistic, or stupid… I stand by my beliefs and my “ideal world” is the one I’ve created. Anyone who dealt with me in either purchase or sale would, I hope, feel that i have been fair in my dealings.
I choose not to engage in shares for a number of reasons. If I buy into most companies, I am aware that they often make profit by making others unemployed- redundancies lead to my profits. I can’t live off OPM (other people’s misery). If I buy into many companies, they make their profit off 3rd world labor. For a range of other reasons, I don’t want to make money where other people lose.
I know there are other people who feel differently about these things. As stated, I am responding to a question asked of me. I do hope people will respect that instead of trying to tell me why my ideas are flawed.
These are perspectives that I have thought of for years, and I’m happy with them. I may not become a millionaire, but I feel my decisions in life have integrity and any profit I make in RE is not made at the expense of others.
kay henry
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