just to let you know we are in the middle of a commodity market/ shipping market boom.
the reason – china china china. i think we are too usa centric and failing to see whats going on in our region
with the olympics coming up in china – it is expected that this will continue for 3-5 years min
its huge and historically the world share markets follow about 6 mos later…
im getting on the boat now
interst rates will be 10 pct by end 2004
im no stockmarket expert but maybe some of you gurus have an opinion on this!!!
A bottle of GOOD red says the “market” i.e. ASX 200, FTSE 100 and DOW will be lower six months from now than they are at the last respective close.
A further good bottle says that DOW is closer to 4000 than 9600 on 10 October 2008.
Any side bets forumites?
G’day…
First off I just want to say that my post on about 1st month was misunderstood by some…
“Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds”…was the title
My thoughts were…that the R/E market has peaked well and truly..that’s why it is hard 4 most(but,not impossible) to find cfp+ today.
What I was trying to say in that post was…..
R/E….herd mentality now….Buy, buy, buy.
Compared to……
Stock Mkt….careful, too risky, not 4 me, remember ’87 and ’29, I don’t know anything abtout shares,
So Aussie Rogue (love the name)…I’m with you.
And xyzzy…name your bet size for next 6 months
and as for 2008…you won’t be able to afford a decent red…cause you will be short in the market and done ya dough.Billfromoz
I would expect one more down swing before we enter the bull market lasting till late 2008. I expect the dow at 20,000 by then.
Why try and predict?
We’ve got predictions of Dow 4,000 and Dow 20,000…gosh, someone predicted Dow 40,000 and wrote a book about it.
I predict that the market WILL fluctuate…..hang on, didn’t someone else say that?
Better to have a strategy in place that will take advantage of any scenario.
That said, AussieRouges reasoning is very sound; I hope your ship comes in m8
]Cheers
Wayneprediction :to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason
intransitive senses : to make a prediction
Hi all,
Interesting word i looked it up on an online dictionary (im not having a go at you wayneL) and i have read all of your posts and learning more from everyone here. Eveyone seems to be very inteligent and knowledgable. But after those horrible terrorist attacks and the declining world economy it is near impossible to predict where the sharemarket will go.
I will keep my betting money for the horses.[]Hi all
DOW COW, ASX BMX, doesnt any one speak english in this thread? [:0)][^]
*joking*
Im just pretty nieve when it comes to Shares, I just know i lost alot of money on Tesltra 2 , but not as much as some.
Regards Bear
“Why try and predict?”
Cos he asked for our opinions. I didnt hear anyone say “im long because I predict this or that”
Mr William From Australia Esq.,
Say a Yalumba Signature, 1998? 3 litres of course! none of this woozing with 750 ml bottles.
Gladly come to the National Capital to deliver and meet!
By the way aren’t we a nett importer from China?
As for 10% I feel you are a tad conservative however the carnage even at 10% will present some good buys!
Come on bear!
Long Telstra!!!!!
Ever thoought of a name change to BAA as in Sheep?
Ahhh . memories of Telstra 2. Did you know that for the first 30 odd days there was a buyer guaranteeing the price. It’s like a concession bet at the dogs – money back for second. But in this case there were only 2 runners!
Okay mate…
3 Litres it is.
Double or nothing that the Aussie$ is at US$.73
by mid 04Bill
“double or nothing”
does that mean we have to find a six litre bottle?
“Why try and predict?”Cos he asked for our opinions. I didnt hear anyone say “im long because I predict this or that”
Crashy, my post was directly under yours and it looked like I was having a go at you particularly. In fact you used the word “expect”, which I like a whole lot more than predict. If we go long on something it is because we expect it to go up.
But the reason I canned prediction is that on a psycological level it is a dangerous thing. Some traders using Gann predictive techniques blow themselves up because they make these predictions, and believe they are “right”, you know, the square of 83 lines up with the celestial harmonic doodad line so therefore the market must be going to 10,000,000.[
] or whatever it is they do.I use what may look like prediction in my analysis using longer term pivots. But because the financial houses use the same technique, I am forming expectations based on price behavoiur around these areas just the same as most traders form expectations at areas of normal everyday support and resistance.
But I couldn’t give stuff where the market goes as long as it goes somewhere. I have this attitude because in the past I have sabotaged myself for having too strong an expectation one way or the other.
Example:
Lets flip a coin one hundred times. Based on the law of averages we have an expectation that it will land on heads 50 times.
Only a fool will predict that it in fact WILL land on heads 50 times, or 47 times or whatever. The reality is that it may land on heads any number of times that is different to our expectation.
Then, we can form a range of expectatations based on all sorts of statistical analysis here…bell curves and suchlike but that would take too long…and bore everybody s**tless.
I think there is an important psychological difference.
Wayne
xyzzy – youre on!!!!!!
china – we might be net importer on consumer type products but not resourses/mins etc
millions tonnes per annum of coal/iron ore/salt/grains etc etc
xyzzy, Billfromoz, aussierogue,
Seeing as I am sitting on the fence in this one, I volunteer as custodian of the booty until til bet is settled[
]I’m trustworthy, I swear…..I don’t even own a corkscrew…I promise!!!!!(fingers crossed behind my back)[}
][}][}][}][]G’day all you punters…
Wayne…are you sure we can trust you to hold the stakes? I was going to suggest comdom… that m&n are too close together on my keyboard. My worry with him though is that he’d end up putting the booty on a slow horse… So I trust ya Wayne.
Now to be serious…forget all the crap about Gann, elliot wave and even the fundamentals.
Look at what IS happening. The S/M has moved up over the past 12 months…the smart money. They have already limited their exposure to Real Estate
just as I have… of course not all.It was easy when the S/M crashed in ’87 for the money to go straight into R/E…most folks feel comfortable with R/E.
What we have now is, in my opinion, the Reverse.
It will be difficult for most to accept that the R/E game is over… by comparison to the past 3-4 years…. for another couple/three years. They will find it difficult to make the necessary switch nto the Stock Market. As the S/M inches up and the R/E slips away the “crowd” will eventually, after trying to weather the storm… get into the S/M because by then it will be the talk of the town…just as R/E has been and still is today.The transition for most will be slower ..from R/E to S/M…but it will happen. As history repeats itself the crowd that just got into R/E in recent times…will then think that the S/M is the answer…..just before…maybe a year …before the cycle switches back to Real Estate.
Cycles is the name of the game…
Bill
I love to see real, on-the-ground evidence of one sort or another. My observations are that in southern and bayside Melbourne, fewer and fewer people are turning up to “opens”. I always get there at the end of the time because you can see the agent’s clipboard as he/she takes your name and phone number. Well a year ago you would see a dozen or more, now you see two or three.
I mentioned this to a younger agent, (they usually spill the beans better than older ones) and he agreed.
I’m confused!
What bets do I have and with whom?
What have I bet on each occasion?
Am I allowed to surrender the bet and we all drink the wine now?
XYZZY…
What bets have you made ?Trust us we’ll tell you later..
In the meantime go long the SPI and S&P500 on either Friday 17th or Friday 31st Oct.
Bill
Am I allowed to surrender the bet and we all drink the wine now?NO, NO, NOooooo….. I’m looking after the stake!!!! Deliver to my house for safekeeping forthwith!!! AHAHAHAHAHAA!
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