Future Property Bust

If those figures are anything to go by, it shows that during ‘busts’ -ve property owners will be hurting big time. Losing cash on a property when its not appreciating in capital value must be a real bugger… []

Obviously during those times your +ve properties are gonna be worth their weight in gold – so with all the talk about a ‘bust’, even more reason to look for +ve (though I still think looking in capital growth areas is a must).

ajwans – Yep, understand that. Though I don’t really like the mentality of people that think like that (not that I’m accusing you of thinking like that, don’t get me wrong). I prefer win-win situations not zero sum (ie one wins – one loses), and think it’s better on a personal and social level. []

Still, you could argue that it is win-win during those times as they are looking to bail and we are faciliting that wish. []

Very interesting westan,

Median price is an interesting statistical figure. Athough it is the best figure available for an overall picture, I wonder how it would look if we segmented the market into different catagories.(don’t know what the catagories should be…maybe the median price of the cheapest 25% of properties and so on up to the most expensive 25%)

The top end of the market seemed to take a big hit in the early nineties.

The most expensive quarter of the property market could have gone down 25% without affecting the medain price of the overall market, but would have affected the mean .

This is perhaps where BOTH the mean and the median price should be used to get two separate statistical views of the overall market.

Then we could make a more informed decision as to which particular sector of the overall market is more able to preserve values in a flat/declining market.

Also would love to see suburb by suburb or shire by shire statistics. Doe anyone know if these are available?

Cheers Wayne

Westan,

Is that book only covering Victoria. If so can you get it for other area’s as well

Henning

Hi
you might want to read this article in the SMH today

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/09/04/1062548939730.html

olorin, i think you nailed it –

“If those figures are anything to go by, it shows that during ‘busts’ -ve property owners will be hurting big time. Losing cash on a property when its not appreciating in capital value must be a real bugger… “

if you buy a +ve cashflow property now, when and if the hurting capital gain people dump, there will be a shortage of rental properties, rents will go up –

but even if capital gain remains strong, it should also mean the CF+ve properties go up in value too (though maybe not as much)

it’s much easier to ride a market out for a while if you need to, if you’re making each week not losing.

http://www.vocalbureau.com

Hi 101,

Interest rates up to 10%? How long do you think it will take for that happen?

I have most of my loans fixed for as long as pos.
Only one of my loans is variable and that is the one I am pumping all the extra cash into.

So an increase in Interest rates won’t have that much effect on me.

But I don’t see the rates going up that much.

Andrew[8D]

Hi Noddies, was there any predictions for post 2006, that is, are they prediciting that they will continue to rise, level, go down??????????????
Caddy

Hiya,

I’ve heard that the next PBust ( when it happens ) will not be so time repairing, last one took 7 years previous one took 8 years. This next one will be 4 years tops, therefore preparing for damage control can be on the cards for IP owners.

Michael
just be