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  • Profile photo of marcellmarcell
    Member
    @marcell
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 2

    hi everybody,
    I’m new to site and so far i have found the site to be really, really helpful.
    I was wondering what is the housing market going to be in the say next 6-12 months.I have been reading and hearing in the press that the property market will burst?what are your views?
    Is it a good time to buy now? or wait a little and see if the house prices drop.
    and one more thing, now my mum has been on my back for some time now trying to convince me to buy a house, the only problem is, I am at the moment a student.I have around $50,000 saved, which i know is peanuts, but i was wondering if any financial institution will give me loan for a house, taking into considerating that I am not working.
    Much obliged for any input.

    Profile photo of maximusmaximus
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    @maximus
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 189

    Hi ya Marcell and welcome, stick around and you will learn a lot more, like the rest of us do. As far as the property market “bursting”, who knows. These so called experts are having a stab in the dark. I dont think they would have predicted 2-3 years ago that the market (especially in Syd and Bris) would have done as well as it has. Your $50,000 is a fantastic effort and is not peanuts. Not exactly sure (but someone on this forum will be) but depending on how much you want to purchase an I/P for, I would have thought that you could get a loan as long as you can prove that rent will repay loan commitments. Probably good idea to speak to a mortgage broker or as I said, someone here will help you, they’re a great bunch.
    Regards
    Marty

    Profile photo of Elysium-MElysium-M
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    @elysium-m
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 259

    Hi guys,

    I think that the experts have a reasonably good idea of what’s going to happen, but not when. It’s the same with the property boom in the 90’s. It’s the same with every stockmarket boom.

    That said, I’m still looking to buy IPs. My view is that it’s not whether you buy in boom or bust, but whether or not you got the property for a fair price or below when you buy. If you do, then logic suggests that when the market does tank, you wouldn’t be affected as much, since you didn’t pay a “boom” or blue-sky premium for your property.

    Then again, I could be proven wrong when the market does go south. Who knows?

    Cheers
    M

    Profile photo of MJKMJK
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    @mjk
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 157

    Marcell,

    Maybe you could buy a property for 45,000 use the other 5,000 for costs and rent it out without needing to borrow. If you did you might find you will have an income of say 2-3,000 per year ?
    Or maybe the banks will lend you a bit, but I think generally they’d like you to have an income/job.

    I could be wrong.
    MJK

    Profile photo of HaroldHarold
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    @harold
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 80

    Gees, I got $110 000 of equity but no job. They still make it hell getting a loan. I can get one, but they love to charge feess for a lo doc!!!!!

    Profile photo of picja1picja1
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    @picja1
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 144

    Marcell,

    Yes you can recieve a loan, however depends on a few things eg. location, purchase price and deposit rate.

    If you would like to discuss your details

    email: [email protected]

    Harold,

    You also may want to contact me as our Lo Doc loans have no ongoing fees and other benifits, also revert back to standard variable after 2 years generally.

    Profile photo of paulthemagnetpaulthemagnet
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    @paulthemagnet
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 27

    Marcell, regardless of what the so called media experts say go ahead and purchase a property if your goal is to keep it for long term. In long term scenario you will be well ahead. On loan matters, hassle your mother for guarantor for your purchase since she is the one hassling you. Banks will love that.

    At least you are already ahead because you are thinking about property or you could say you are forced to think about it. Doing nothing is the worse thing you could do.

    Always listen to your mother as they say.

    paul

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    @westan
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,950

    hi marcell
    the market is at the top, or very close to it. Historically property moves in waves, this wave has been huge, running longer than anyone expected, and for good reasons some local eg FHOG and some international eg poor stock market performance, the property bubble is an international pheonominon ( we need a spell checker). What has happened in Australia is property runs for a few years quite quickly, then plateau’s for a number of years, but very rarely does it loose value. But this run is a beauty. who knows how it will end. But i advise extreme caution at the moment. spent as much time learning all you can, follow the market, and read a lot of posts on this forum. $50k is a great start, i only had 25K 7 years ago and now have about 20 properties (but i’ve been riding the wave), i couldn’t do it as easily now. Given you are unemployed you could still get a loan and consider FHOG, Don’t buy a property that will cost you money only cash positive properties. Perhaps you could buy something that needs a little work- paint etc given you probably have a bit of free time during term holidays. Start small, all the best. Homepath gave my unemployed son a loan for an investment property look up http://www.homepath.com.au
    westan

    Stawell Vic.

    Profile photo of Elysium-MElysium-M
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    @elysium-m
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 259

    Chandara made a really insightful comment in one of his posts on another thread – namely that if you start getting property investment tips from your taxi driver, you’d better start preparing for a correction.

    Of course, the problem is always when, not if.

    I’m personally preparing myself for a correction, so that when it happens, I’ll be in a good financial position to pick up some bargains.

    Profile photo of edgewiseedgewise
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    @edgewise
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 8

    Hi Guys! I attended a seminar presented by BIS Shrapnel a couple of weeks ago. They are of the opinion that the property boom in Qld particularly hasn’t even started yet because of the undersupply of housing (20%). This will continue according to them for the next 3 years but after that we will perhaps see a return to the 1980’s scenario with interest rates as high as 10 – 14%ie a bust.
    I don’t have an opinion on this either way but would be interested to hear what everyone else thinks.

    Profile photo of muppetmuppet
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    @muppet
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 900

    Hi Guys
    You tell me the winning numbers for Lotto for next Saturday and I’ll tell you if the market is going to burst.
    Regards.

    Profile photo of aussierogueaussierogue
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    @aussierogue
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 983

    g’day muppet. i think yr trying to say that picking if the market is going to bust is had as trying to pick the winning lottery numbers.

    i think you’ll find the odds are a lot shorter..

    surely investing a little more complicated than that…

    ps – im sure you just being faciscious (spelling)

    he he
    [:D]

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    @westan
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,950

    muppet

    an addition to what aussierogue has said we had better consider the senario because i’ve got a lot more hanging in the property market than on this weeks lotto.

    westan
    by the way try 4, 13, 21, 32,34 and 40

    Profile photo of aussierogueaussierogue
    Participant
    @aussierogue
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 983

    you’re alright westan – i heard its easier to win the lottery in new zealand.

    Profile photo of marcellmarcell
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    @marcell
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 2

    [:)]I would like to thank everybody that repsonded to my question.
    I must say since coming to this site I learned more and more about the property market.
    Thanks a milion(one day it will happen)

    Profile photo of recoverymanrecoveryman
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    @recoveryman
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 122

    [:)]Marcell
    there are PI that r/t 10% harder to find, but they are there
    might be ablr to find one that needs work that you could do
    get your mum to go guarantor
    it is great that you are one to this site
    it is a whole world of knowledge without the hardknocks
    it is important to do
    it might be at the end of the boom, I dont know
    but if you buy at a good price and a r/t of 10%
    you should be covered
    good luck

    Profile photo of MiniMogulMiniMogul
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    @minimogul
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,414

    quote:


    I have been reading and hearing in the press that the property market will burst?


    Hi Marcell, funny that I found this thread directly after writing a huge post on another thread, about this exact same subject. The thing that really caught my eye was your quote above as it is my opinion (after hearing an expert say this at a seminar, which made perfect sense to me) that the media talks the market up and down – rather than what previously used to be the case which was that financial indicators like interest rates, inflation, and the economy drove things one way or the other.This expert said that these things change far less – inflation is capped, the government wants to keep interest rates low- etc – so if a bubble bursts it will be a media renzy rather than an actual one brought about by changes in the economy.

    Also I don’t think that there are propery experts writing the articles -although people will take something they read in the paper as gospel truth as if it *was* written by an expert.
    they are news-hounds trying to write a story that their editor will pick so that they get paid for their JOB.!! (unless maybe the editor changed the headline to include something about bubbles bursting so that anyone with a property will pick up the paper and have to have a read what the ‘experts’ are saying.)

    If there’s one thing that I learned from Kiyosaki it’s to only get your advice from other successful investors.
    I would be interested to hear what Steve has to say on this subject???
    cheers-
    Mini

    http://www.vocalbureau.com

    Profile photo of dynamicduodynamicduo
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    @dynamicduo
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 21

    Hi Marcell,
    There will always be educated ‘chicken littles’ (‘the sky is falling,the sky is falling”)in all forms of investing.A sophisticated or astute investor will prosper in a ‘bull market’ or a bear market’.It all revolves around education.

    50 stack is a terrific leg up,so invest in your education and your confidence will tell you when it is time to buy.Remember that imagination is FREE!

    Brett

    “A true warrior sees misfortune as a challenge not a curse”

    Profile photo of MiniMogulMiniMogul
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    @minimogul
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,414

    one more thing on this point as I recently re-watched the video that had the gurus talking about the market (particularly Sydney, as the speaker was a Sydney developer.)

    They first asked the audience ‘what factors drive the market?’ to which people yelled out things like ‘interest rates, the economy, inflation, supply and demand, population, confidence’…
    …correct…but…
    out of those factors very little has changed since when the sydney market (for example) was supposed to be ‘hot’ to now, when it is supposed to be ‘a bursting bubble’. interest rates have come down a bit, but that is supposed to buoy the market, isn’t it???

    OK there is perhaps an over-supply of brand new apartments, but the *main* thing that has changed is confidence – and why is that? the media….

    I rest my case….

    http://www.vocalbureau.com

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