Hi all,
I’m looking into areas that still show positive cashflow. In towns with a population more than 15K. Unfortunately trends over the last 2 census results have shown a decrease in population in the are of 4% or more over the period of 4 years to 2001.
What are people’s opinion in terms of the risk profile of such areas?
Do you think towns with a population base inexcess of 10K has enough critical mass to be self sustaining long term? Or do these population trends spell doom for the potential interstate investor?
Cheers,
Tungasaurus
Census data doesn’t paint the picture of the town today (some 3 years later). You should also look at industry and job opportunities in and around the town. If industry is closing then that is a cause for concern.
Suggest you search for any recent news on the town.FlyHigh [cap]
Tungasauras,
You have three options:
1. Look at more up-to-date figures, as well as varies other data including those provided by ABS, sales reports, and just generally make use of research information from a broad spectrum of origins (websites, council records, govt reports)
2. Look at the 2001 census report indicating a 4% decrease, and try to figure out “why” this may have occurred, and if you’re smart, you’ll track through records whereby the research information will more than likely paint the picture of reason….eg. local kids grew up and moved away!!!
3. Ignore the data and buy anyway, taking your chances.
Personally, I’d take on option 1 and 2, which after careful analysis may lead me to 3, but only after THOROUGH and exhaustive RESEARCH.
In short, do your homework; and the answer will come to you!!! It’s not rocket science to pick a profitable town, it’s extensive researching followed by application of common sense!!!
Jo
Monopoly,
that makes a great deal of sense. I would love it if a data provider could provide us with accurate and timely population statistics, would make finding growth areas a great deal easier.I’d probably look at option (3), perform your due diligence and stop hesitating. If you think an area is going to show growth prospects get in the market!
Also look at School Population statistics on the appropriate Departmental website – that will give you an idea of what is happening at the school age level.
As a rule of thumb school populations mirror what’s happening in the town.
Derek
[email protected]Property Investment Support Available. Ongoing and never stopping. PM welcome.
Hi Tanga,
Are you soley invest for +cf? What would happen in 10yrs time when you want to sell? I will not buy for cf only, I want capital appreciation with it as well! But that’s me!Sounds risky to me. But, these sorts of towns do turn around and can come good again.
Terryw
Discover Home Loans
North Sydney
[email protected]Terryw | Structuring Lawyers Pty Ltd / Loan Structuring Pty Ltd
http://www.Structuring.com.au
Email MeLawyer, Mortgage Broker and Tax Advisor (Sydney based but advising Aust wide) http://www.Structuring.com.au
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