- Repeating myself from another subject but seems appropriate.
Ahhh interesting times afoot.
Lucky to be an expat I enjoy talk of falling OZ dollar and interest rates, 30% payrise over the last 6 months. Doesn't quite make up for the past few years but welcome.
At present we are battening down the hatches, creating good buffers for possible difficult times. A year or two should provide clarity and a brief slow down in our growth is good insurance against possible dire times ahead.
( The world is still reluctant to mention credit card debt, yet to come. )
Not too fussed with drop in prices as we have 80% commercial but tenants are our number one concern and a weak economy will test our skills.Not quite ready to fill the back yard with chickens but I feel a good time re evaluate your position and give a little thought as to how you will approach the next couple of years.
Good news – this is likely to be the worst financial crisis we shall see in our lifetimes and should we ride out the storm, we will emerge with greater knowledge and confidence for the future.
Ahhh interesting times afoot.
Lucky to be an expat I enjoy talk of falling OZ dollar and interest rates, 30% payrise over the last 6 months. Doesn't quite make up for the past few years but welcome.
At present we are battening down the hatches, creating good buffers for possible difficult times. A year or two should provide clarity and a brief slow down in our growth is good insurance against possible dire times ahead.
( The world is still reluctant to mention credit card debt, yet to come. )
Not too fussed with drop in prices as we have 80% commercial but tenants are our number one concern and a weak economy will test our skills.
Good news – this is likely to be the worst financial crisis we shall see in our lifetimes and should we ride out the storm, we will emerge with greater knowledge and confidence for the future.Yossarian wrote:The fact that the vast majority of scientists are academics and public servants earning well less than the average RE agent is sufficient to put the latter to rest and if you were familiar with the nature of peer-reviewed research across the scientific community you would know that the former just aint possible.I know a few REAs that want to be public servants now:)
Industrys, and the people in them, support themselves – peer-reviewing has more chance of re-enforcing a given group's POV than bring it to legitimate question.
I would not be surprised if the government brings in a law that makes denying climate change illegal and a Terrorist act, Also it will be taught in schools that there is no 4 seasons anymore, And anyone who claims there is 4 seasons is a conspiracy theorist
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/1782/
http://overlawyered.com/2008/08/legal-consequences-for-denying-climate-change-consensus/
So what about rain, storms and all the plants that grow, What causes that to happen ? Well its Lord Obama of course, His greatness allows all things to happen
Have you heard the latest from the GW academics ? The reason we didn't have an increase in global temperatures so far is because of all that pollution coming out of India and China. The smog blanket reflects the sun's rays and it helps to keep the planet at least 1-2 degrees cooler then it would otherwise be, which would imply that if the Chinese & Indians ever stop polluting we are all doomed.
no no no, Climate cooling is proof of climate change, There is no seasons, Thats just a conspiracy made up by Al qaeda, I can't wait until C02 is taxed and we can purchase carbon credits of the world bank so we will all be safe !
Maybe we can get a special deal from Lord Rothchild if we buy our Toilet Flush Credits at the same time we buy our Carbon credits from him ?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,,24658934-2,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6277747.stm
At the start of the year they said they want a New World Order for "future security and environmental challenges" so basically they can put everyone in a death camp, kill 80% of the word pop and keep the rest as slaves
Now there excuse for a word dictator and world genocide is to "save the economy"
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/239411,zapatero-calls-for-new-financial-world-order.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,449264,00.html
Look at the look on Browns face while he imagines a world totally controlled by the elite where he could eradicate the worlds population, slaughter little children and rip people apart from limb to limb
God, The Australian people need to wake up to whats going on before its to late, Before Kevin Rudd forces us to accept this world government fate, I don't feel like working in a government run work camp by darth vader uniform steroid munching cops who can't get laid blowing steam off
harb wrote:Have you heard the latest from the GW academics ? The reason we didn't have an increase in global temperatures so far is because of all that pollution coming out of India and China. The smog blanket reflects the sun's rays and it helps to keep the planet at least 1-2 degrees cooler then it would otherwise be, which would imply that if the Chinese & Indians ever stop polluting we are all doomed.Hey Harb,
Off current posts but back on original topic – do you still think property prices can't undergo a major downturn? You still a proptimist?
ummester wrote:Hey Harb,Off current posts but back on original topic – do you still think property prices can't undergo a major downturn? You still a proptimist?
Why, you still hope against all hope for some large falls ?
Don't get greedy , we had some falls already at least in the budget end of the market. I think its possible the top end of the market $1M+ will still go down a few more %, maybe, but I wouldn't put the house on it. At the budget end you have the FHOG and lower rates starting to kick in soon, my guess is that we'll see some evidence of a recovery by January and the market will continue to improve for the rest of 2009. Unemployment rate may go up but for every forced seller due to a job loss there are probably 100's of potential home buyers waiting to snap up a bargain so I wouldn't expect that to cause any price falls. There are still a few sellers who fell on hard times when the rates went higher and are still forced to sell at a loss but their numbers are coming down fast. On the other side of the equation you have buyers who have been sitting on the fence and are probably getting restless by now so at first sign of prices moving upwards they'll jump in afraid they may miss out .
If I was looking to buy a place in the budget range I'd be quick about it , would try to find a bargain over the next 2-3 weeks and negotiate hard. Once the RBA drops the rates in December by another 0.75% or more likely 1% the market will start moving , the buyers will come out of the woodwork and sellers won't be willing to consider silly offers anymore.harb wrote:Why, you still hope against all hope for some large falls ?
Don't get greedy , we had some falls already at least in the budget end of the market. I think its possible the top end of the market $1M+ will still go down a few more %, maybe, but I wouldn't put the house on it. At the budget end you have the FHOG and lower rates starting to kick in soon, my guess is that we'll see some evidence of a recovery by January and the market will continue to improve for the rest of 2009. Unemployment rate may go up but for every forced seller due to a job loss there are probably 100's of potential home buyers waiting to snap up a bargain so I wouldn't expect that to cause any price falls. There are still a few sellers who fell on hard times when the rates went higher and are still forced to sell at a loss but their numbers are coming down fast. On the other side of the equation you have buyers who have been sitting on the fence and are probably getting restless by now so at first sign of prices moving upwards they'll jump in afraid they may miss out .
If I was looking to buy a place in the budget range I'd be quick about it , would try to find a bargain over the next 2-3 weeks and negotiate hard. Once the RBA drops the rates in December by another 0.75% or more likely 1% the market will start moving , the buyers will come out of the woodwork and sellers won't be willing to consider silly offers anymore.My thoughts exactly..
I agree mostly.
I would also add that rents are still rising and rates are falling so fast that many people will decide to stop renting & buy.
but I think a recovery by Jan is way too soon. the share market is still hitting new lows every day (despite many forum members declaring it was time to buy months ago) and until this stops investors will be forced to sell assets at any price to meet margin calls. in the U.S & U.K house prices have not even started to bottom, and we lag those markets.
Im looking for an Apr/May bottom, with prices falling 5% between now & then at the bottom end, and 20-30% at the top end. but with clever negotiating you should be able to buy 10% under market right now, meaning you are still 5% ahead when the bottom hits.
We'll see, I guess.
My bet is that, even if we are at the bottom, prices aren't going to go up quickly. Too much uncertainty out there. I am not so sure that there are enough buyers left for all the stock on the market either, now that a lot of speculators chasing capital gains have given up on it.
crashy wrote:I agree mostly.
I would also add that rents are still rising and rates are falling so fast that many people will decide to stop renting & buy.
but I think a recovery by Jan is way too soon. the share market is still hitting new lows every day (despite many forum members declaring it was time to buy months ago) and until this stops investors will be forced to sell assets at any price to meet margin calls. in the U.S & U.K house prices have not even started to bottom, and we lag those markets.
Im looking for an Apr/May bottom, with prices falling 5% between now & then at the bottom end, and 20-30% at the top end. but with clever negotiating you should be able to buy 10% under market right now, meaning you are still 5% ahead when the bottom hits.
have to agree
Here is Michael Yardney latest 2cents worth.
I was just thinking about this topic and thought I'd give people some idea about what is happening around my way, (newcastle & Port Stephens area).
Whilst I think there is a price correction going on, I think to say that across the board there will be a 50% drop is far too general.
My experiences around this area are that the top of the market was about 2004. Prices have already come down from then (way before the Global Financial Crisis). For example, I was looking around at real estate where I live in 2006(half way between Newcastle and Port Stephens) and there was a house for sale, 3 bed, 2 living areas, 2 car garage and I think it only had 1 bath but cant remember, but the owners wanted $360 K for it. The agent begged us to look at it so she could give the owner feed back that they wanted too much, her words were "they want what they may have gotten 2 years ago and its not worth that now and no one will even look at it. That house 6 months ago was still on the market and now down to $295. From what I've seen it is probably worth around $280. A far cry from $360 4 years ago.
I recently bought a town house (settled 1 month ago) for $225. It sold 2 years ago for $260. Off the top of my head thats a 17% reduction?
Another example is a REA I know told me his in laws bought an IP in a Newcastle suburb 5 years ago, highly negatively geared, and sold it 4 months ago for less than they paid for it. ouch!!!!
So alot of correction around here seems to have already happened and contrary to the 50% price drop doomsayers I think it won't go much further.
But, as I live only 20 mins from Nelson Bay area (which for those that don't know the area is a "sea change" location, holiday place, lots of holiday homes owned by Sydney based owners), I have e-mails sent to me from a local REA. The prices there in the past have been absolutely rediculous and out of control in my opinion. The prices there are sliding backwards fast. I think alot of people who have holiday homes there have had huge margin calls. Here is a cut and paste from a recent e-mail I got and there are heaps with the same price reductions and more.
NOW REDUCED – 37 IRAMBANG STREET, NELSON BAY
Located directly Bagnall Beach this entertainers delights must be sold. Asking price is over $100,000 less than his purchase price. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 3 massive living areas, entertaining deck, low maintenance yards and lots more on offer. Your inspection is a must…
Must admit I havn't looked at the listing. and I'm not a REA or have any interest in this property at all, its just a real life example.
I totally agree with harbs post of Nov 18.
I'll also add that for alot of the market in NSW, the prices havn't risen in 4 or 5 years and some are priced less than 5 years ago. Markets that have had recent rises like Perth will probably suffer right now alot worse than the NSW that has been in limbo for a long time.
Any way, just my 2 cents worth
Watch "Have our property markets bottomed?"
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