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Plug in Hybrid Cars,….. Possibly One technogly that could save us from economic disaster,….
I Found this graph which shows what I was trying to explain about the price of oil rising out of proportion to the fall in production If you look at a drop in supply during the '70's due to opec cutting back production, you can see that production was reduced by about 10% but the price rose from $5 a barrel to close to $40 a barrel,…. that means it doubled by nearly 8 times,…. and this was only a short term man made production shortage,…. the next shortage will be a lot more permanant and a lot more drastic,…. No wonder America wants to open up Iraqs oil feilds,….When you hear on the news that the oil price is going up due to a hurricane slowing production at a few oil feilds,… or political unstability in another area,…. because its winter in the northern hemisphere,…. I think this is a sign that we are pumping as much oil as we possibly can and are only just meeting demand,…. to me this is a sure sign of hitting the peak of production,…
look at any modern oil feild and you will see wells absoulutly everywhere pumping 24/7,…if they can fit another well into the feild they will,…. they even pump water and steam into the ground to force the oil up quicker,…. how can these tired mature feilds keep up their currentl level of production into the future.
This chart shows global production since 1930,….. the green shows the USA production peak in 1970 and a steady decline,…. europe peaked in 1999,… russia peaked in 1989,….. Since then the world has relied on the middle east to meet excess demand but as the chart shows the middle east is due to peak,……However even though the worlds production is Peaking demand is still growing by 5% per year,… made worse by the industrialisation of china and india.
what is even worse though is that the price of oil is affect disproportionately to any down turn in production, meaning a 5% downturn in production means the price can jump 50%.
The Bars on this graph show the amount of oil discovered each year, and the line graph shows global consumption, Notice that even with all the modern technology available we have never discovered more oil than we did in 1968.50% of the worlds current production is coming from the giant oil feilds discovered 5 decades ago, which are now maturing and in slow decline,
the oil feilds that are being discovered these days are much smaller, harder to get at, and being pumped out much faster than the mamouth feilds we have always relied on.
So as you can see we reached our " Discovery OIL PEAK" in 1968, our "Production OIL PEAK" is not to far away
