Many people comment that starting out is the hardest part – not only is knowledge an issue, but so too is confidence.
I could go on an on about this topic (in fact… I will be at the upcoming seminars I have just announced), but for a quick answer that I hope points you in the right direction:
1. Many investors buy a property and then make a profit. That is, they buy then strategize. This is a flawed approach.
2. Instead, the first step is to work out your wealth creation goal. That is, what you are trying to achieve from your investing.
3. Once you know your goal, you can then look for a model or investing approach that will get you there. For instance, you may need to buy multiple properties, and 'trade them' as you build your capital. Or else you may have a long term approach and can buy (say) a property every couple of years and achieve your goal if you achieve your growth targets.
4. Once you know what profit you want, and when you want it, you can select the most appropriate investment strategy.
5. Armed with knowledge about the goal you have, the profit outcome you want, and the best strategy to achieve it, your next step is to identify an area you want to invest in, and then ultimately the 'right' property for your needs.
6. Of course, once you have found the property, it's up to you to do your due diligence and then negotiate a price you're happy with.
7. Then, once you've bought it, you should look to apply skill to get above-average growth and income returns.
Phew! That's quite a bit to take in, but it's a quick step-by-step approach which I strongly believe will lead to the most successful investing outcome possible.
If you'd like to know more on this topic, then I suggest you take a look at the seminar series I'll be running soon. The link is provided in the signature tag below.
This is an interesting post, but outside of my expertise to answer.
I have been approached a couple of times over the years by people with either disabled children, or else from organisations representing them, inquiring about the validity of special purpose housing that can be converted back to standard residential property after a period of time. This could be an interesting niche, particularly if you could get a win-win lease.
Alternatively, as a developer, you may be able to get attractive pre-sales for a unique product.
I wasn't aware there were special planning regulations, but this makes sense.
I suggest that if you want to take it further then you should contact a town planner. They should either know, or else know how to research, an answer.
If you do find something out, please come back and share it with the community.
I understand that HSBC has changed their policy due to the US Patriot Act, or something. In short, they've made it harder to open a US bank account from Australia. I will attempt to verify this with them tomorrow as I have a contact who gave helpful advice a few months back. I'll write an update when I get confirmation.
I'm not sure about Citibank.
In regards to Wachovia… they are currently being gradually rebranded Wells Fargo after a take out.
I've had a go at buying a few in SW Florida over the past few years.
Things seem a heck of a lot better now than my first visit in Nov 08. Prices are firmer and inventory is moving in days (sometimes hours) rather than weeks.
It will be interesting to see if the momentum can be sustained.
Thanks for the post. It's wise to seek referrals, especially when dealing in a foregin investment market.
I have not personally heard of either group. Perhaps if I could ask you a couple of questions:
a) What are you looking for (by way of service)? b) What are you prepared to pay for it?
I am not solicitoring business, just interested to hear your expectations. As you outline them, someone else may be able to help you with a recommendation.
The team and PropertyInvesting.com and I have been working on a nationally recognised property investor training course for nearly three years now. It's been a heck of a journey, but I am pleased to say we have received the necessary ticks and will soon have a course ready to market.
So, please hang on for a month or so while I dot the i's and cross the t's. Those of you who signed up at Conference to be the 'Foundation Members'… we're still on track to get the material to you by the end of the month (July) as promised.
I think much of the budget pain is yet to be felt, but it will bite when electricity prices increase as welfare payments dip. It will be fascinating to see what happens with the carbon tax, and whether the government brings this in as the carrot to make amends for the welfare reductions.
You can see the political incentive… giving back what was taken away is still perceived as giving.
I agree that there weren't much visionary changes, which is why a lot of people are saying it is an uninspiring budget from a government in its first year. It's fair to say that the budgets in 2012 and 2013 are unlikely to be worse since Laor will want to remain in power.
I'm sorry to read your account of financial deception. It's difficult to imagine the emotional journey you've been through, and are going through.
Sadly, I can't see an easy way out. If you sell for less than the mortgage value, you will need to arrange a loan with the lender to cover the shortfall. Assuming there is no other security to offer, the best you can hope for is a personal loan.
If you can, give me a call in the office during business hours and let's have a quick chat. 03 8892 3800.
I notice in the news today that Buffett is noted as saying he has loaded his elephant gun and has an itchy trigger finger. Is it rabbit season, or duck season? Hang on a second, I'll go ask Elmer Fudd.
It is interesting though that he believes that this year will be "possessing a general business climate somewhat better than that of 2010, but weaker than that of 2005 or 2006"
It looks like this has been a very beneficial forum topic with lots of robust discussion.
In regards to sustainable / affordable housing, it may actually be a little too late for that. I can't see the situation changing while the taxation laws encourage investors to make a loss by investing in expensive housing.
Personally, I would like to see the tax laws changed so that tax offsets from -ve cashflow are capped to the income (to create a cashflow neutral position), and thereafter the excess losses need to be pooled and carried fwd to be offset against the capital gain on eventual sale.
Part of the problem causing price growth is the lack of supply, so this policy would take away the incentive of holding indefinitely, since the losses could only be accessed on sale. Furthermore, I think the idea of refinancing capital gains 'tax free' needs to be potentially reconsidered. That's a much bigger issue, but there are no easy answers.
I doubt either of these options would be politically attractive.
In summary, the government has a choice… affordable housing, or increased household wealth and happy voters. I'm not sure you can have both.
Sell up some stock? I'm always buying and selling, so I guess I'm doing both.
I want to reiterate a point though… it's because we think a property crash can't happen that it actually (a crash) can.
If we said 'okay – a property crash can happen if…', then that would be a much better dialogue than simply shutting our eyes and imagining that Aussies are somehow different.
In regards to the US, rents and prices both dropped. That said, I think rents and prices have firmed over the last six months. Too early to be sure, but we may have seen the bottom (or at least the bottom of this cycle down).
I guess it is still theoretical to buy 130 properties in 3.5 years. In fact, I am on track to do so buying in the States about 18 months ago.
But, the real questions is not the number of properties you own, but what the portfolio delivers. You may be able to achieve your investment objective owing 5 properties. Or 2. Or even 1 (think office building!).
Indeed, the premise of book is not about owning 130 properties. It is about looking at real estate a different way: cashflow rather than capital gains.
So, to answer your question… could a person on an average income in a full time job own 130 median priced Aussie properties in 3.5 years (based on 2011 values) – and contributing 20% deposits along the way. Yes – but not on a buy and hold basis. They would need to do something creative and have a team behind them. Also, it is unlikely they could all be held at once, but, then again, I never did.
Be careful not to make this an 'Australian vs US' issue. It's not, and that's the point Buffett is making. No one saw it coming because there was no concept that it could happen.
We tell ourselves the same things in Australia and argue how and why we are different. The simple truth is that it could, but that until some event happens (which does not currently exist), in all likelihood it won't. Instead, the expectations of people will mean that property prices will keep going up.
Let me tell you a story of a situation that proved me awfully wrong. Driving home some years ago, it struck me that the stock market couldn't ever crash again. Why? Because each month there will billions of dollars that had to be placed 'in the market' via superannuation contributions. In other words, there was mandated government supply of new money into financial markets that had to keep flowing in, and so long as more money came in than went out, prices had to increase.
Clearly, I was wrong. But why? It's true that more money keeps coming in, but values dipped suddenly. This was not because of economic factors. It was because of psychological factors.
So the same point could be made for the property market. The economics of a housing shortage, strong Asian demand, etc. all point to a continued strong market. But… if people no longer perceive value, then it doesn't matter a cracker about the economics, prices will drop.
In many ways, that's the state of play with the Aussie market now. Without the psychological drivers in full force, values have stagnated.
I guess what I am saying is that the economics are used to justify the outcome, but because people are random rather than predictable, the future is anything but certain. That said, investors still need to piece all the variables together as best as possible in order to make informed decisions.
I have been to Lehigh Acres on my trips to the US, and had a good look around.
I think the name says it all… 'acres' implies land, and lots of it – and so there is in Lehigh.
With the lack of scarcity, land prices are extremely low. No one is building on it either because falling property values mean that it is far cheaper to buy second hand than build new. There are also many foreclosures keeping a lid on prices (both short sales, REOs and mortgage foreclosures). It is doubtful whether there will be any capital growth in Lehigh in 2011.
So, as is often the case in real estate, there is opportunity… but you need to have the time, money and skill to access it. The opportunity is cash flow (rentals), flips, vendor finance etc.
I would NOT buy in Lehigh without going to see it first hand, nor would I buy unless I had my management team there to look over my investment.
To date I have bought (with my business partners) around 60 properties in the Ft Myers area. None of them are in Lehigh though.
The point I am trying to make is that a developer with pre-sales will find the going smoother. That is s/he will be able to get finance and there is relatively little risk provide they know what they're doing.
On the other hand, speculating is going ahead with a development without finance or pre-sales. This is done in better markets because there is extra return.
What I'm saying is that:
a) When the market turns there will be comparatively fewer new developments coming on to the market that have not been presold, because by its nature, fewer are started earlier when times were tougher.
b) Because demand will exceed supply at that time (when the market improves), prices will be set to jump up rather than float up.
c) Once price moves, developers will be happy to take extra risk and so 18 or so months later, more supply hits the market.
So, the question we should be asking is… what was the market like 18 months ago. The answer is… coming into the GFC when finance dried up. Therefore, we do not have a supply glut coming on because it has been difficult to finance developments without presales since late 2008.
The point I am trying to make is that a developer with pre-sales will find the going smoother. That is s/he will be able to get finance and there is relatively little risk provide they know what they're doing.
On the other hand, speculating is going ahead with a development without finance or pre-sales. This is done in better markets because there is extra return.
What I'm saying is that:
a) When the market turns there will be comparatively fewer new developments coming on to the market that have not been presold, because by its nature, fewer are started earlier when times were tougher.
b) Because demand will exceed supply at that time (when the market improves), prices will be set to jump up rather than float up.
c) Once price moves, developers will be happy to take extra risk and so 18 or so months later, more supply hits the market.
So, the question we should be asking is… what was the market like 18 months ago. The answer is… coming into the GFC when finance dried up. Therefore, we do not have a supply glut coming on because it has been difficult to finance developments without presales since late 2008.