[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

January 7, 2012 - 8:14 am

@ xdrew – my apology, did not meant to upset you or sidetrack the thread.

Been to the open house today at wavell heights (brisbane), property been on the marked for couple of months. Discount from original price 15% , three persons show up including me. Agent has no offer, asking for a feedback. Property is above $700K mark.

Had a chat with agent, his feedback is that market have changed, vendors who want to sell need to meet the offered price (discounted).

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

January 5, 2012 - 6:06 am

I think we getting off topic here.
Thread’s point is to to discuss the ‘fall’ of the prices on housing in Australia. And as per RP data they are falling as of 2011.

Been predicted to start falling in 2006 by some members, on first 5-6 pages. Been predicted to fall much further too (thanks for spelling correction moxi10, my German background shows up).

This thread is valuable, as it allows one to make a judgement, leave comments here and look at it after 5 years (I did). Shows how good your judgement was/is and gives you point of reference for learning.

As for been negative – having negative outlook on RE prices over next 5 years got nothing to do with been a positive person and making money on RE during this time (as I do, and will continue to do throughout 2012).

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

January 4, 2012 - 12:19 pm

moxi10 Joined: 06/11/2010
EPI_Den Joined: 13/11/2010
xdrew Joined: 20/11/2010

Funny that, three persons all joined fairly recently, few days apart from each other and have similar view on the subject.
Nick-names are not very creative to.

I make no conclusion, let time and posters decide

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

January 4, 2012 - 12:12 pm

Do not know about you guys, but market is going down in mine view in 2012, even more.
I got few properties in 2011, looked at many more. And I can tell you that discounts of 10% are easy to get, 20% is still possible but getting harder, 30% is normally does not make it to general public and get’s sold via private channels.

So, I see drop in values far below official 10% for 2012. That is for Brisbane.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

January 1, 2012 - 10:41 am

Hello All,

Where are we at today, 7% drop plus CPI of 4% conservative. Can we call 2011 as 10% loss for Brisbane in RE values?

Anyone want to call what 2012 will like ?

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

November 22, 2011 - 4:54 am

Origiona: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/11/residex-house-prices-fell-in-october/

Residex: House prices fell in October

Posted by Houses and Holes in Oz Housing Bubble on Nov 22nd, 2011 | 44 comments

Yesterday Residex released its October median house price indexes and, generally speaking, the downward shift in prices accelerated from September as the Spring selling season got going.

Here is a chart for Sydney:

The housing component fell 1.65% in October. I don’t want to be too alarmist, this is a median index and thus subject to a fair bit of volatility, but that is the largest one month fall since 1979 (and the formation of the index) and follows a 1% fall in September. Even accounting for volatility, it appears Spring has spawned a new vigor to discount among Sydney house vendors.

The story is different in apartments, however, with the index actually rising 0.4%, and clinging to a recent record high in July.

On to Melbourne:

The Melbourne index for houses has trudged lower every month for five months and October continued the trend with a 0.9% fall. Unlike Sydney, however, apartments also fell down for a fifth month in six, some 1.5%.

On to Brisbane:

The Brisbane houses index resumed falling after a big September bounce, reversing all of the 1.5% gains and is now down nine out of ten months. The same transpired in the apartment index, down 0.98%.

Finally, Perth:

The housing index slowed its decline, down 0.36%. Conversely, the apartment index fell more swiftly at 0.76%.

All in all a lousy month. It will be interesting to compare with R.P. Data’s hedonic index.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

November 17, 2011 - 4:37 am

Bump for the old thread!

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

October 10, 2011 - 11:17 pm

+1
I am thinking along the same line. Till today, for 2011 RE is -6% or -10% with CPI included.
Unless the government intervene, we are up for a long slide. Maybe not a spectacular drop but a long gradual slide down for sure.

As a side note, I think this is great time to start looking in to the purchasing. Not necessarily right now, but as it develops interesting propositions pop up.
I actually have a contract been prepared now for purchasing rental property. You can now find those with the return of over 8%, making it cashflow positive.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

October 3, 2011 - 11:48 am

Long therm treads are good.
1. they indicate long time members that contributed and still around
2. they provide great learning perspective as what was expected vs what really happen
3. you get to see who was brave to take a guess

In the last 5 years I seen so many people come, make a noise and go. I value those who been around for some time

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

October 1, 2011 - 12:19 pm

Well, I was a LOONG time Bear for RE, to be exact since 2006 (as per start date of this thread).
I now planing to come back in to the RE as a investor. I believe that times are great as falling prices and rising rents offer increasing ROI.
One can now relatively easy locate 5.5% return (via rent) VS 3% couple of years back. As next 12 months develop ROI will break even with the cost of borrowing making it an entry point for an investor.

Thoughts anyone?

Anyone know of a good TAX VS Property seminars in Brisbane?

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 31, 2011 - 3:35 am

ummester wrote:

abcd1 wrote:

I agree and am one of those buying in qeensland nows a great time to buy when everyone is scared

Buying when everyone is scared is a good idea. I don't think everyone is scared yet though.

Buyers obviously are, as stock is rising and prices are softeneing.

Vendors aren't really scared yet.

Agree with observation.  Market is stugnant but there is no FEAR there. Vendors not willing to sell with discount, buyers not purchasing at full price anymore. So not many transactions are made.
Prices need to start doping or rising to change the situation.  Make your bet

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 31, 2011 - 3:32 am

[/quote]

I know

Yes, my silver has given me great returns… I just wish I had stacked the boat 10 years ago when you could get the stuff for 4 bucko's an ounce

I was only making $10/hr hour back then, Though I could have bought 2.5 ounces for every hour of work I done.

Now I earn $40/hr and I can only purchase a bit over 1 ounce for an hours work.

You could have easily secured yourself a 10% dividend with Telstra shares earlier this year, I think they where trading @ less then $2.70 at some point, What a bargain.
[/quote]

Who is the author of those words: I made a small fortune buying too late and selling to early?
So, welcome onboard, this is how money are made. Knowing exactly when to buy and sell will multiply your profits. But any profit is still good.
I was thinking if I was unreasonable purchasing gold for $1400 last year. Now 20% up-move later, I am happy. Thinking if I am not to buy some at $1700 been unreasonable….

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 30, 2011 - 5:24 am

Thinking out loud on ROI in Brisbane, Townhouse in Wynnum. Assuming cash purchase:
Value $350K
Rent $400
ROI: 6% (less agent fees, rates, body corporate fees, depreciation, down time), be actually close to 3%

Trouble free deposit in the bank (say Ubank) is 6.51%
Buy some Silver: 80% last 12 months
Buy some Gold: 20% last 12 months

Give you an idea where is the next up-cycle have started…

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 22, 2011 - 1:15 am

^^
+1, for Australia to become affordable to general mass of Australians (bottom 70%) real estate prices have to half from what they are. Or wages need to double. Anyone see wages doubling next 5 years and property pricing remain the same? That would be 20% inflation.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 19, 2011 - 10:38 am

AIF QLD wrote:

A very good statement sent to me today about what is going on around the world!

"The only person who can assure you of health, wealth and happiness is – yourself! Altitude is determined by attitude. If you choose to listen to, take on and acknowledge all the negative stories and events that are thrown at you every day, then what will your waking attitude and outlook be – negative, of course."

Follow what's positive now and reap the rewards even if it is only for a short period of time – 50% of something is better than 100% of nothing…

Been negative about real estate does not mean been negative generally. Say returns on physical Silver over last 52 weeks been 90%

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 11, 2011 - 11:57 am

luke86 wrote:

I think you will find that property repossessions are relatively low compared to other developed nations around the world, and by no means high compared to historical levels in Australia. No need to hit the panic button.

Cheers,
Luke

Agree, my post reads like a bit of over reaction.
This is probably a result of been frustrated with  people out there keep throwing 'property double in value every 7 years' staff
There are many houses for sale now, a lot more than 2 years ago, but not to many sold by banks as pepos.
I think in 3-4 years from now it actually may be a best time to buy, if you got a job and deposit that is

 

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 9, 2011 - 11:52 am

You would want to work as property repossession officer… plenty of work even now in Brisbane…

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

August 9, 2011 - 1:28 am

Buckle up, next 3 years will be bumpy. This of coarse depends on the road your property is traveling.

I would dare to speculate that if we will have another 2008 style sell off in shares, AU will end up with plummeting RE values 12 months later on.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

July 7, 2011 - 10:18 am

Sounds about right, ksherwell. Some one I know tried to sell IP in Brisbane, only few came to have a look over 3 months and only one couple considered to make and offer. He needed to discount too much to make a sale, so he pulled off the market.
He is the lucky one, who do not really "need' to sell.

[simpleParticipant@simpleJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 237]

July 7, 2011 - 2:02 am

fWord wrote:

emptyvessel wrote:

Usually by the time everyone is talking about buying something specific around the watercooler, the time has passed to get in.

Precisely right. And this is why I so sarcastically questioned in a previous post whether anyone has actually already bought gold or silver. Looking at the graphs it appears the boat has long since sailed. I find it very humorous to read some of the posts here by the property bears who consider other alternatives to be better investments, or they would have bought property before a certain date and didn't. Or maybe they wanted to buy a certain share, or short the AUD at a certain SOMETIME.

Trouble is, they 'wanted' to do so but didn't actually 'do it'. It's easy to talk about things that have occurred in the past. But it's harder to actually commit money and put your butt on the line to actually do something productive.

Here's another point we should probably consider. If gold or silver, or some other commodity has had such a good run recently and property is actually starting to look comparatively cheaper, then it's property that is yet to see a boom, and the comparative investment has yet to see a bust.

How do one measure a value of the commodity or asset? We have no perfect etalon to measure with. Do not mention fiat currency please.
So, if one to estimate current market value of something you have to compare it against basket containing number of valuables:  hourly pay rate/OIL/Energy/Gold/Silver/cost of food, add on as you wish. Measuring against average of other valuables you may get a somewhat reasonable indication of value of particular item.

fword:
Here's another point we should probably consider. If gold or silver, or some other commodity has had such a good run recently and property is actually starting to look comparatively cheaper, then it's property that is yet to see a boom, and the comparative investment has yet to see a bust.

This is only the true between commodity/property  ratio. You cannot take it out and measure in fiat – you may not get the same result. In other words, at the moment property prices are still going down if measured in GOLD and may reverse soon. This does not mean that you will see rise of property pricing in AUD and it maybe THE GOLD loosing value instead. Therefore AUD/property will remain the same.

Most people think simple, they short AUD – Real Estate. Average person on the street fail to see other options.
To get ahead of he crowd one would want to short number of cycles to multiply gains:
AUD – RE
RE – Gold/Silver
Gold/Silver – AUD
Add on the combinations…

More boom/bust cycles are going on at the moment, just need to research in to it.

And as someone mentioned, evryone talks, but who HERE actually have any significant money in the game? I am in, with 90% of my savings in the game. Playing only  with what I can afford to loose.