Forum Replies Created
Hey Freckle
That's the most positive sounding post I've read from you in ages. You must have gotten some good nookie last night and got up on the right side of the bed this morning. A wise man once said "To an optimist a realist appears a pessimist".
Cheers Mate
Run. Hide. Change your phone number.
Hi Scott
Yes, Muswellbrook is still a very busy town, quite a lot of development occurring and the mines are humming along. Mount Arthur and Mangoola have both recently hired (not fired) more employees. The local council are also very active, and are doing a good job of giving the town a facelift. The council also has a healthy and improving budget. Martin Rush, the local Mayor, has been a big driver behind an effort to rejuvenate the town, and he was reelected recently by a strong majority.
The directors of these companies are clearly capable of planning strategies based on supply, demand and other price influences over longer timeframes than the recent short term factors which have resulted in the current low price for coal. They clearly expect the demand and price for coal to pick up within a not too distant future in order for these projects to be worth committing to. Of course, having the finance and approvals in place does not necessarily mean that all the projects will proceed according to current timetables. A prudent businessman would have preparations in place in anticipation of more favorable conditions, and might delay implementing his plan, but clearly there is anticipation of imminent action in these plans! On a smaller and less significant scale I also note that Xstrata have applied to increase their production tonnage from Mangoola coal at Muswellbrook from 10 million p/a to 13.5 million p/a., as well as plans having just been publicly released for an extension at Drayton mine near Muswellbrook.
Jack, I've read that the government transition in China applies to all levels of government, and will be ongoing for up to a year, and that has caused significant disruption to the growth pattern there, with an expected resumption of stimulus to their economy to occur gradually as members of government are replaced.
Plans to extend the life of Drayton mine south of Muswellbrook to 27 years have just gone on public display.
http://www.muswellbrookchronicle.com.au/story/804724/extension-plans-on-display/?cs=1235
Hi Prospector
One other option worth considering… Offer the vendor $1000.00 for an extension on your contract.
If they accept, contact one of the brokers on this thread, all of whom have demonstrated that they understand property finance more thoroughly than your present broker. The savings they will gain for you will far outweigh the $1000. You will also benefit from their advice on any future investments. If you continue with your current arrangements, it will make it more difficult to access equity from your properties for deposits on future investments.
You might feel obligated to proceed with your current broker, but consider the fact that their failure to give you quality advice, resulting in potential losses of thousands of dollars and an undeterminable setback to your investing career, releases you from any moral obligation to them, and more than justifies your right to seek quality advice elsewhere.
Cheers,
Tony
Gina is thirsty. Buying more water for her Galilee projects. I get the impression she expects something will happen there…
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/farmers-11m-water-gamble-last-throw-of-the-dice-by/1605979/
Another sign of improved relations between BMA and the CFMEU
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/bhp-drops-compo-claim-against-cfmeu-after-dispute-/1606129/
Also an article about Kevin's Corner mine proposal in the Galilee Basin. Dubstep has posted more under Alpha heading.
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/gina-pushes-on-despite-drop/1602991/
And here a current summary of the major coal mine projects currently underway in Qld.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/no-holding-big-miners-back/1601418/
Here's a news article about a proposal for India's Coal Ministry to monitor coal acquisitions quarterly over concerns that the supply demand gap is widening partly as a result of slow progress developing foreign acquisitions. The article mentions an expectation that India will need to import 185-200 million tons of coal by 2017 (current international trade in coal reportedly estimated at one billion tons p/y) to meet rising demand from the power generation sector. This tonnage would therefore represent appx. 20% of current international coal trade. Does anyone know off hand how much thermal coal India currently imports?
Hi fingerscrossed
It's unusual for the Chinese government to show so much concern for the loss of a few coal miner's lives. The article doesn't mention how much coal those "small" mines produce, or the percentage of the country's total production, but it seems unlikely that they would close mines that have production significant enough to impact on international prices.
In most cases the contract is "subject to finance", however there is usually a date, generally only a few weeks after initially signing the contract, by which time the purchaser must notify the vendor that they have organized their finance. Of course, there is no possibility of the banks guaranteeing to loan the money at the anticipated much later settlement date, so my understanding and personal experience leads me to believe that the purchaser has little choice other than to waive the right to the contract being subject to bank approved finance, at which point he no longer has the option of withdrawing from the purchase due to the lack of ability to complete finance. It seems to me to be a flawed system which exposes anyone signing an OTP contract to the risk of not being able to complete finance, even though their situation at the time of signing may have given them justifiable cause for full confidence in their ability to raise finance. The only certainty of completing finance is to have the entire amount in cash, otherwise there is always a risk that finance will not be attainable at settlement time. If I'm wrong about this point, I will be pleased to be corrected.
Tony
Hi Jack
I searched Queensland newspapers for more detail on the agreement between BMA and the CFMEU. Not much publicity yet, expect there will be more tomorrow. I found an article in the Mackay Daily Mercury, link below. It seems as though BMA caved in on the contentious issue regarding their previous insistence that their own employees should be appointed to carry out safety inspections, as opposed to the current system where the CFMEU can call stop work based on their own inspections. I recall from previous reading that there is a current court case underway with BMA suing the union and some individuals over claims that a previous stop work was declared needlessly, which affected all BMA mines and resulted in the loss of several million dollars production. This article mentions that safety check inspectors are covered by the agreement, so perhaps they worked out a rational compromise. Apparently there is a "housing agreement for those working in nearby towns". Also, apparently, the employees are to receive a 33.33% increase in superannuation. Who wouldn't appreciate that? It's good to see that there is a resolution, one less element of uncertainty in the equation. That helps with point number two in Josh's summary of negatives affecting the coal mining industry. If only we could do better with point number three, which should , by the way, include Queensland's increased royalties.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/3000-workers-vote-yes-bhp-alliance-deal/1591643/
Hey Freckle, admittedly exploration and approval for additional mines will be an extended process, but the immediate potential for more discoveries of iron ore, gold, uranium and associated minerals is high with the greater access which will be available to mining companies.
"You'll be bouncing great grandkids on your knee by the time mining booms again". Your pessimistic outlook makes Martin Ferguson look like an optimist in comparison.
Very true, Jack. The Indian's obviously need the coal, and are moving aggressively to secure supply from Australia. Short-term drops in the price will not deter them from proceeding with acquisition and development, as major players obviously have their eye on the bigger picture and longer outlook. If the current low prices have any affect at all on their plans, it is most likely that they will see it as an opportunity to secure more ground while the competition is reduced. All indications confirm that the Galilee Basin will soon provide a major economic boost for Queensland, and, as you point out, Emerald is securely placed in the driver's seat.
JT7 wrote:Hi Dubstep,Hancocks Alpha Coal Project should start construction early 2013 and most likely start exporting 2015. It should really start ramping up now with the other projects coming on. There's so much talk about what China is doing but i think that India seems to be forgotten about. They are quietly moving in and securing the mines, rail and ports to support the insatiable need for energy to support urbanization and industrialization.
Alpha, Barcaldine, Emerald and Bowen markets will rise rapidly off the back of the immense investments in the Galilee Basin. it's an exciting time and those who have got in early will benefit significantly. Personally I think the Emerald market looks extremely promising as it will be the central hub to these Mega Mines.
Jack
The Federal Government has officially lifted the moratorium on mining exploration in the Woomera Protected Area, allowing exploration to take place in a little explored area comprising 13% of the state. As Terry Ryder points out in the second link below, this important announcement has received very little publicity, but holds great significance for investors in the region. Those who secure properties early (now) in strategic locations will be set to reap rewards. I haven't yet stretched my deposit funds far enough to purchase there, but it is on my list for things to do!
Gillard and Co. can always point to somewhere where the mining investment environment is less appealing than the one they've created in Australia. Replacing 15,500 employees will be a costly exercise for Anglo. And it looks as though things are set to get worse before they get better there.
moxi10 wrote:Arrogant thick-skinned bastards. That does it for me. They're losing my support. I'll be walking.Westsuc lower rates 0.18%. They make it very difficult for me to regret my earlier hasty comment.
Jamie M wrote:Before you jump ship – the original post from Richard about ANZ increasing rates was in Feb. This isn't something that's happened recently.Cheers
Jamie
Ha Ha
After I couldn't find confirmation anywhere that the banks had raised rates I wondered what was going on. As Tom said, I thought ANZ and Westpac were out of their minds in their own little profit focused bubble world, but a rate raise didn't seem totally out of character. After further consideration, even the executives of those two banks should surely realize that not passing on the majority of the rate drop would be very damaging to sentiment and the economy and would lose them a lot of customers (including me) as well as cause them to be the deserving focus of unprecedented abuse.
Arrogant thick-skinned bastards. That does it for me. They're losing my support. I'll be walking.
