Forum Replies Created

Viewing 20 posts - 21 through 40 (of 323 total)
  • Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    simple wrote:
    http://www.news.com.au/money/property/house-prices-dip-and-will-fall-further/story-e6frfmd0-1225932622360

    Seems like FHOG stemulus effect started to wear off. We need few more IR hikes and Austalian RE will follow USA trend.
    Interesting that AU lags 3-4 years behing US…

    What does the  "FHOG stemulus"  has to do with almost $3M apartment having to drop $750k before selling ?  Surely there can't be that many  FHBs who can afford apartments selling at 5x median home price and the ones that do would not be put off by the loss of a lousy $7k  in "FHOG stemulus".   
    And as far as the overall 0.2% fall in the median prices go I think the picture said it all and is the reason behind the fall .

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    eloi wrote:
     but unfortunatly the bubble has to pop some time

    what bubble ? 

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    _joyce wrote:
    Hi, I am new here. I am thinking to lease out my property, to be managed by real estate agent. But I do not wish to declare it as my investment property. The income received does not go to me, it goes to my brother who is not working. Therefore, I am not receiving any income to be taxed upon. Is this legal?

    No tax l expert myself but  don't see how you could claim it on tax as an investment but give away the proceeds received from it to your brother without declaring it on your tax income .  Unless your brother was a ATO recognized charitable institution which would allow you to claim it under  tax deductions for donations to charitable institutions because the property is in your name you have to pay tax on any profits received from it, , whether you claim the expenses or not.
    Perhaps you could look at employing your brother as your personal property manager and have him charge you fees equal to the rent you receive for the place ? 

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    ummester wrote:

    And lose 50 odd K in fees and stuff for the transaction in 10 years time?

    A lot of fees for today's median priced home.
    I only pay around 2% in agent fees which would put your place in the $2.5M range.  That's some capital gain you expect over the next 10 years unmester, and you said you weren't bullish…..  

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    ummester wrote:
    I took some of your advice, though. I decided not to buy in ACT. Will build my FHSA all the way up to 80 odd k (combined with Mrs ummester) and buy at a place we want to retire to when my LSL is due. Then, after living there for 6mths, I will put it up as a rental and use the tax savings to pay down the loan 10 years faster. Best of all worlds and should give me the option to leave work in 15 odd years. Good enough for me.

    Only wished you listened to reason 2+ years ago and did something like that in Sydney or Melbourne over 2 years ago so you'd be up 100k+ in CG, a couple of fat tax returns and the rental income covering the mortgage repayments by now.  Still you know what they say, ' you live and you learn' and 'better late then never'.

    Quote:
    Now, I just have to find the right coastal town, with a heap for sale, that isn't going to grow too much over the next 20 odd years.

    Only problem with that is the nice coastal towns will be overcrowded coastal towns in 20 years time and meanwhile the rental returns won't be as good as something in the major capital cities.  Wouldn't the better strategy be buying  a lower priced place on a larger block closer to the CBD that gave you a better rental return and then selling it to buy a place in a coastal town that will still be the "right coastal town" in 20 years time when you actually want to retire ? By then you may change your mind and want acreage in the hills instead of a beach house in some overcrowded town. 

    Quote:
    Of course. I've never denied that property is a good long term investment just that it hasn't been the right time to buy since I've been looking. End of 2008 was – when I was last making serious offers. But then the gubberment went and overstimulated the thing and now its heading for serious problems.

    Australia is not one uniform property market, there is always the right time to buy property somewhere.

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    eloi wrote:
    Quote:
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/7946270/finding-space-for-556-000-perth-residents/

    Finding space for 556,000 Perth residents

    MARISSA LAGUE, The West Australian September 15, 2010, 6:55 am

    If forecasts are right, Perth will be home to 556,000 more people in the next 20 years and finding space for an extra 328,000 homes has put the spotlight on urban infill housing targets for the metropolitan area.

    thats just hilarious. This is classic propaganda and your using it as an example of an undersupply. Look at the rpdata for perth and u will see an oversupply of housing, prices dropping and rent vacancies increasing …

    Not sure where I used it as an example of undersupply but I'm glad you found it hilarious and "classic propaganda".  If anything I believe that based on the previous 20 years growth of around 50% increase the numbers forecasted are on the low side. 
    I looked at the home page of rpdata and it shows Perth median at 465k and overall growth of 5.7% for the year. Have you got any links to where I can "see an oversupply of housing, prices dropping and rent vacancies increasing" ? I did find the suburbs growth here   http://reiwa.com.au/res/res-pricegrowth-display.cfm and there are a few suburbs which fell but the majority of them were up.

    Quote:
    …but yet u go with a yahoo article design to fool the blind

    There is no fooling you mate.
    Just in case   /thewest/ in the yahoo link wasn't enough of a clue and readers couldn't be bothered to click on the link to see the full article I left the source of the article as well but  it was obviously too small for you. This time I enlarged it and changed the colour to green to make sure even the blind can see it.

    Oh, and  just in case you have not heard of this source previously I've pasted the wiki description for you.

    Quote:

    The West Australian

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Jump to: navigation, search

    The West Australian
    The West Australian
    West Australian front page 12-12-2005.jpg
    Front page of The West Australian
    12 December 2005
    TypeDaily newspaper
    FormatTabloid
    OwnerWest Australian Newspapers Limited
    EditorBrett McCarthy
    Founded5 January 1833
    Headquarters50 Hasler Road,
    Osborne Park, WA, Australia
    Circulation195,033 Daily
    342,787 Saturday [1]
    ISSN0312-6323
    Official websitehttp://www.thewest.com.au

    The West Australian (often simply called The West) is the only locally-edited daily newspaper published in Perth, Western Australia,

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    eloi wrote:
    hey  why there is new unsold properties in sydney, perth, brisbane, gold coast. if its like you  say that we have an undersupply of property by %1 then why do we have these unsold brand new apartments and houses.

    what does unsold properties have to do with under or over supply  ?  Is there an oversupply of Toyota cars if there are unsold Toyotas in a used car dealers yard ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    Quote:
    You can still crack me up harb.

    You too unmester, I gather you have not purchased your dream home yet and are still waiting for that  major market correction ?

    ummester wrote:

    For the argument I'm representing here, I mean recent as in the last 10-15 years and not the latest Epoch:)

    Ok. I will agree with you that recent history has shown property to be the winner. But even going back 50 years or more you would have done alright investing in property and even more so if you disregard median prices (which represent properties further and further away from the CBD)  and focus on actual properties.  Take for example investing in something on the outskirts of Sydney or Melbourne 50 years ago, something at the dirt cheap low end of the market, these days the same property would now be located in an area that is in the median to high price range of the market..     

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    cuteyoungchic wrote:
    I live in a city South of Perth. House prices have been falling here for approximately 2 1/2 years. There are loads of houses are on the market, to sell your house, you need to drop the price by tens of thousands.. Rents on existing properties haven't risen in a year or two. The main local paper has an abundance of houses for rent.

    Must be a low demand area, most rents in the metro areas have gone up over the past year.

    Quote:
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/7946270/finding-space-for-556-000-perth-residents/

    Finding space for 556,000 Perth residents

    MARISSA LAGUE, The West Australian September 15, 2010, 6:55 am

    If forecasts are right, Perth will be home to 556,000 more people in the next 20 years and finding space for an extra 328,000 homes has put the spotlight on urban infill housing targets for the metropolitan area.

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    Mick12345 wrote:
    Hi Harb,
    I have seen that graph before, it looks like Niall Fergusson's work.
    That fact that the House price Index goes up exponentially is very misleading and kills all credibility.

    It may well be, I  goggled for Aus property prices and pasted the first chart I came across. You could hardly expect to see monthly fluctuations in a 130 years chart.  The point I was trying to make was that any long term oversupply would have shown up in the chart as long term falling prices.

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    ummester wrote:

    Recent history has shown that property is the winner, not all history. And that is a recent history with sever market distortions.

    Depends what you consider recent.
    Australia being a young country only allows us to look back a couple of hundred years but boy how I wish my great great great grandparents bought me a few acres of land around Sydney Bridge 200 years ago. 
    Of course there probably wasn't much capital gains to be made between the Roman times and a couple of hundreed years ago so in that respect you are 100% correct about property being the winner only in recent history.

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    eloi wrote:
    Here is an interesting article i just read which coincides with what ive been saying for a few years.

    But you've only joined here a few weeks ago, can you give us the previous user name you used here so we see what you have been saying for the last few years ? Ta.
    As far as the over or under supply goes there is a simple indicator to tell us what is going on and that is property prices.

    Aus prices

    Does this chart screams oversupply to you ?      

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    ummester wrote:
    As in 'we would love to pass on the cuts' suckers… but we won't.

    Anyway, this whole debating tiny changes one way or another is fruitless and becoming boring. I believe that over the next 2 years the price of property will drop by around 30% across the board. You don't. Only way we are going to be sure who is wrong and who is right is to check back in 2010. If the forums still running then, we'll compare notes..

    Hello old friend,
    Your 2 years are up and the forum is still running but your 30 % went in the other direction. Want to make play double or nothing, say 2 more years and 60% falls ? 

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324

    I had a look at it years ago but was put off by possible polystyrene shrinkage due to aging and heat causing the render to fall off.
    There were a few similar products around but in the end for me it worked out cheaper to go with the tried and tested regular bricks.

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    ummester wrote:

    The world should be fine. I have deciphered the real meaning of the 2012 mystery – it's about the Australian property market:P

    Better rush and get some then, before they are all gone.

    Or did you mean that 2012 is the year you finally give up the wait for lower prices and buy ?
     

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    wealth4life.com wrote:

    Wait till the end of August when we see the effects of the mortgage resets to comment further here.

    You're still hoping the mortgage resets will cause a property crash ? That's so 2007.  

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    sonyasal wrote:
    NFBP.

    You neglect to realise that most peopl do not pay $500k for a $500k property. They only pay a ten or twenty % deposit. So your figures of losing $107K on a $500k property is inherently flawed.

    As is the assumption that rents will stay flat for the next 5-10 years. That 5% yield will soon turn into a 10% +ve geared property and any capital gains the icing on the cake.   

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    SteveMcKnight wrote:
    It's hard to see how the cost of construction won't increase,

    100% agree with you there.
    Electricity and gas prices are going up and with them the cost of cement,  bricks, steel, kiln dried timber and other building materials where energy cost is a large component of the manufacturing cost  . Would not be surprised to see building costs going up 50% over the next couple of years.  If the aussie dollar goes back to 70c-75c prices could go up even more because the cost of imported internal fittings, doors, window frames, etc  will also go up. 
     

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    simple wrote:
    BUMP

    OLD thread, let's keep it afloat to see it expectations eventuate. To date we seen no price drop in mid/low range.
    However the top end sunk a minimum 30% (1m+ properties), that is in Wynnum / Manly / Lota in Brisbane
     

    Even if it does eventuate it may only do so after the prices have gone up a lot.  Someone who has been waiting for a 30% crash since prices were a third of the peak is still going to end up worse off. He would also be reduced to choosing  from a limited number of properties since most sellers would refuse to sell so low and simply withdraw the property from the market  until conditions improved.
     

    Profile photo of harbharb
    Member
    @harb
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 324
    propertunity wrote:

    My hot tip:
    Mandurah – sea side location (water always good for CG)
    Perth-Mandurah Rail Link. $1.7b, completed

    +1
    Also Kwinana Freeway extension is almost completed.

Viewing 20 posts - 21 through 40 (of 323 total)