[gmh454Member@gmh454Join Date: 2003Post Count: 537]

October 12, 2006 - 11:24 pm

Originally posted by zen1:

What the media says doesn’t matter.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm…….. not sure on that….if you run Sunday paper specials on how much all our homes have gone up in the last year, Hot property shows, Reno shows and the biggest hit of 2003 the Reality TV show the BLOCK, then you have a boom.

“you can’t loose on real estate”

If the media selectively pulls out investment horror stories as we are starting to see in newspapers you have the start of the slump (Sydney) .

Now once the 6.30pm current affairs shows have footage of some couple being physically put in the streets, (in 1991-1992 it happened ….even in Mosman) then you have public perception that property is poison…….

What the Reserve says is only a small part in this wonderful melodrama….

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October 9, 2006 - 5:07 am

[
Are you working on the theory that the human race stopped spawning at some point?

Not quite but I know that the grant plus no deposit home loans brought a lot of purchases forward, there were some very young investors taking advantage of the grant, some not quite in High School.

On that basis I don’t think there is a even spread among the polulation.

Thought the comment about the grant doubling was interesting, heard the same comments in Sydney in 2004

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October 7, 2006 - 1:38 am

Originally posted by celeste:

I think Perths bubble will slow or burst for different reasons than sydney and that the bottom end will be safe. Affordability and the increase in the FHOG (I found out it is true about and increase to $14000) will keep the bottom end boyant.

Normally I try to keep my posts light and humerous (well I laugh when I read them…..) there is way too much of a pissing contest on here at times, though it has improved since someone pulled the plug, and way too many people have equated speculation to investment.

Having said that …….seriously how many people who qualify for a first home owners grant, have not taken it up. Have they now changed the rules so pets qualify, ….there was a post before about a pet needing a “savy accountant” to fake there tax returns before giving them to there broker.

Also where have you heard about a first home owners grant increase ????

That was also doing the rounds of Sydney back in 2004 when the bubble popped.

Personally think it would be suicide for honest John. Don’t think the western Sydney seats who won him govt last election would think that was money well spent.

Could of course be wrong…….

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October 6, 2006 - 5:52 am

Back to the drawing board and do some more research. If you were a professional and advised on that you would need a Prof Indemnity the size of the Tassie budget to cover you.

Really basic errors

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October 6, 2006 - 4:59 am

Foundation ….just because your parents could afford to send you to primary school ….dosn’t mean you can flaunt it here……

I’ll now go back to my rolled up newspaper in the septic tank and have a good cry…

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October 6, 2006 - 2:33 am

The extra debt would not be deductible, as the reason for the debt was a PPOR not an investment.

Good idea though, write a book about it and run seminars saying it is the real wealth secret of the rich, and you should be retired by this time next year. Preferably somewhere with no extradition treaty.

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October 5, 2006 - 10:14 pm

The first time I remember the famous “this market is different” was on the Gold Coast high rise in around 1982. Even four Corners ran a episode title something like the Bubble that can’t burst. It was different because ………overseas tourists would support future growth until the population of the Gold Coast exceeded that of Tokyo.

1984 market halved.

Forget why 1987 stock market was different , but it was, then the tech boom of the 1990s was different “because dummie it was about computers, try and stay on the same page, sorry gotta run thats my flight being called for Calif…no I know nothing about computers, I’m going to run a IT company, why do I need to know computers to do that”……had a conversation like that with a guy with abad suit and worse attitude

And lastly Sydneys property market was different, in 2004 we were told to expect lower growth of only 10% pa for the next few years until the market took off again, then we were flat but now is a great time to buy because the market is picking up, then it was I’m not selling for that, the guy next door got $@#$ two years ago…..

Interesting where we go from here…

Oh where was I ….. Perth is different…….right………

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September 29, 2006 - 8:41 am

And I beleive OZ debt hit record levels again…….way to go Perth, keep going guys…and lets hope that minerals production infra structure actually gets put into place before ……..

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September 29, 2006 - 7:42 am

Originally posted by joshadelsa:

Had a client come to me with one in Brissy CBD for $100,000 however it was only 20sqm

That does not sound very cheap at all, though I am not speaking as one who has ever lived in one.

kind of reminds you of the Polices mans Ball skit, with the

…..I used to live in a rolled up newspaper in a septic tank, but tell that to the people of today and will they beleive you….

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September 29, 2006 - 3:39 am

Originally posted by wealth4life.com:

GMH its easy…,

because now developers have developed anti growth drugs so your children stay smaller longer, while you pay off your 27% interest free store account that you had to refinance because the term ran out.

That’s great news wealth. Now to come up with a good long term investment stategy.

If this trend continues and developers keep shrinking people to fit in these mini deveopments, it won’t be long until, the developers will not need to build anything, just wack on a house from Matel built for Barbie and Ken.

Better stop wasting my time here and get out there and start buying those Barbie houses right now…..wonder what Britney wants for hers…..

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September 28, 2006 - 9:58 pm

Originally posted by CanAm:

W4L – LOL – I race a mini, well, a mini based motorkhana special anyway – wicked fun, and teaches you good driving skills too!

Seth my hat is off to you. Always wanted to but never had the time (lousy damm time management system…..)

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September 28, 2006 - 9:56 pm

Originally posted by asdf:

I thought the “experts” were saying the market will bounce in 2006?? So now its 2008. Gee, they must be right then. Maybe we’ll give em another shot at it in a couple of years…

Ohhhh you are soooooooooooooo cynical !!!!!

not wrong though,

Its funny when you button hole an agent and he knows you are just browsing you can get some very depressing stories about the market

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September 28, 2006 - 3:11 am

Just some interesting data with no where else to put it.

Heard on ABC some business person who made two addresses in same week one in Perth and one in Fairfield, in Sydneys west.

Commented that in Perth was told of building laborers earning up to $80 per hour, while in Fairfield unempolyment has hit 11% with property down 25% in a year.

GO WEST YOUNG MAN….then everyone can work in the building industry building more housing for more people coming over to work in the building industry … oh sorry forgot that is what is already happening

Also ABC midday news covered the rise in arears on new loans up from around .02 in 2001 to .05 today with 1% in Sydneys west.
Lowest employment in 30 years and historically low interest rates.
Hmmmm strange.

The Property Council (or something ) came out with that Sydney market will not bounce back until 2008. (hey next year is 2007..maybe I should get in now and beat the RUSH ….)

Got to go now and see my finance broker about a new kennel, maybe my dog could use a low doc loan, must be an accountant out there who can give me a tax return

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September 28, 2006 - 2:59 am

Originally posted by wealth4life.com:

2. House and land packages are getting smaller in size, some starting now at 300 m/2

Wealth think you are in the wrong forum …. this is not “pet friends”
and I know that kennels are being marketed like that, but frankly I think people are wasting a lot of money on buying there dogs things that they just can’t appreciate.

A two storey kennel with garage…rediculous

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September 26, 2006 - 3:01 am

Originally posted by DLPP:

gmh454 – now that was a very bad run if I have ever seen one but then again as you said yourself these are purchases based on emotion more than anything else so probably are not investments – just my 2 cents.

No you’ve got it completley wrong you don’t buy children, well not as it is recognised by the law, but I agree it was a emotional issue.

Me personally, I wanted hamsters, much easier to keep,

Oh… were you talking about the properties..

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September 26, 2006 - 2:15 am

Originally posted by simple:

Quote:

Originally posted by gmh454:

[

Had my Jaguar XJS V12 5.3L coupe years back. Absolutely loved the car, smoooooth power. You can be going 180km/h and enjoy silence. It had 100L fuel tank which needed to be refilled twice a week for a city drive. Glad I sold the car, it would send me broke with current fuel prises! [blink]

Ahhh those were the days, if they sprung you cruising down the freeway now at 180kmp you would be item 4 on the evening news.

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September 26, 2006 - 2:12 am

Perth is real weird now it is a bubble on a boom, or a boom boom or…..whatever.
Rest of Oz floating (except NE Qld and Darwin…..) US RE going backwards for while … and I think it recently became official but Perth is Nuts.

Reminds me of Japan late 80’s or Gold Coast 1982 ( even Four Corners did a program and featured the reasons why this bubble would not burst ) probably fired the program manager, these days they would get a class action against them.

We are watching wild rampant specualation, made without rational judgement.

But ain’t it great to watch !!!!!!!!!!

Agree with your gut feeling.

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September 25, 2006 - 10:30 pm

Originally posted by CanAm:

My ride, Brock ADP wagon, 1 of 6 made – very sad about his passing. Met him several times and a man of great talent. And on weekends its my imported Chev CanAm, size of an escort with ’69 Camaro 302 factory fitted and street registered – awesome fun

Got a ride around the back streets in LA in a 69 302 Norwood car, in 1991. Until then never knew what the fuss was about, I preferred my torque monsters.

Are Can Ams Sth African ??? Know the engine but fuzzy on the car.

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September 25, 2006 - 10:24 pm

Originally posted by DLPP:

Quote:

don’t mean to offend simple – i hear alot of this type of stuff where people say they are waiting for a huge macro event and then they will cash in and become rich.

i would suggest that most people don’t do it because by then “everyone” is not investing in property and you will be inundated with information about how bad an idea it is and how much money you will loose.

I posted a thread a while ago to see how many people had actually profited from the last sydney slump (the one we are in now???) and there were not to many responses from people who had picked up fanstic deal from distressed vendors.

I am so glad you asked. Due to my date of birth etc I seem to need housing up grades at around boom times. Have tried to retard my childrens growth, kept em locked in the dark and made em where diapers until they were six but nothing worked.

In 1982 bought a very nice house for 110K had listed nine months before at 129K. Guy was a pilot and relocated to HK. We were stoked. Reality was it took about three years to reach that 129K. We paid market. Wish we had bought in 1979 for around 80K.

In 1993 bought 5 acres outside Castle Hill for 410K at auction. Looked for many weeks (a pain as it took us over an hour each way and we had two booys between 8-11… see they had grown) When we talked to agents our budget was around 525K. Never seen so many unliveable houses on strange blocks of land in my life. One agent laughed when we asked about anything under $500K , and you should have seen what he was showing us.

Our vendor was committed to buy (next door actually got a great deal on 15 acres) so had to sell.

Again considering what we had paid we thought this time we had a bargain. Got an agent appraisal three years later for $430K.

No you don’t get bargains at the end of the boom or at the bottom, but a couple of years later in the “flat market”

My thoughts on personal experience, and yep the little kiddies are due to move out soon and we will be looking again. Timing is everything. Now I know what people mean by family planning.

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September 23, 2006 - 1:53 am

When interest rates were 5.99 5% gross return sounded great.

Now that we are lokking at 7.3s+++ and going higher, doesn’t sound quite so good.

Also you sure its 5%, you talking gross or nett.