Loving your posts gmh!
I’m not sure which particular long-term data series you refer to, but would guess its the data uncovered by R. Shiller for his updated book (remember this is the man who called the peak of the dotcom stupidity with impeccable timing!). He tracked the sales over a 350 year time period for a single street of houses in…[Read more]

Welcome WinstonWolfe. I agree. Except I believe further cycles are inevitable. I just think there is a very long way to the bottom from where we are today.

Ausprop, it is quite easy to show that our GDP net of household borrowing and adjusted for monetary inflation has actually been negative for some years now. Then add in the fact that much of…[Read more]

[NOTE: THIS IS SPECULATION ONLY AND MAY NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL FIGURES, PROCESSES OR RESULTS FROM INVESTORS DIRECT OR ANY OTHER LENDER!!!]

I don’t think there is a flaw in your logic elkam!

Thanks cbellesini for your input. I think you must be half correct in what you suggest. It’s impossible for anyone to be offering actual 4% interest rates, so…[Read more]

So I’d take it this is either:
a) A low introductory rate loan with hefty break fees to prevent borrowers from refinancing after the intro rate runs out.
b) A US style negative amortisation loan where borrowers make only part of the interest payment, the remainder is added to the outstanding capital.

But if it’s a, then surely there’s no…[Read more]

To be rich and happy means so many different things to so many people, personal debt and credit cards are out of control – if people could get rid of that debt alone how mush happier would they be i wonder.
wealth4life – have you read Affluenza (the Clive Hamilton version)? It’s a bit of an eyeopener. His thesis appears to be that the wealthier we…[Read more]

I’d think more like 7-10 years… It took ten years to get so low after all. Don’t forget there are 2 ways for yields to rise. I suspect we’ll see a bit of each.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Wylie, to answer your question…
If you’d bought an all ordinaries balanced portfolio worth $180k in 1997 and reinvested the dividends annually you’d be looking at around $650k I believe (based on 76 ‘units’ of XAO in ’97, 5% dividend = 124 ‘units’ of XAO in ’06).

If we’re looking back, how’s buying an $18k piece of dirt in 1999 and selling it…[Read more]

Originally posted by Duckster:
What guarantee do you have that the super rules are not changed in the future when the baby boomers have taken all their tax free lump sum payments out.
Only that they will no longer have the political ‘balance of power’.
What guarantee do THEY have that WE won’t change the Negative gearing / CGT / Means testing /…[Read more]

Oops, edit that. It tells us nothing.[blush2]

Originally posted by wealth4life:
Unless you live on the waterfront the average mum and dad property is going backwards
Another good point, W4L! The REAs and their spokesliars are constantly informing us that “demand at the upper end of the market is strong, houses in {insert posh suburb} are selling for higher prices than they were a year, or…[Read more]

I assume you want something more specific than this…
Average Melbourne gross rental yield for 3 BR house:
1996_5.7
1997_5.2
1998_5.0
1999_4.3
2000_3.9
2001_3.4
2002_3.2
2003_3.0
2004_3.1
2005_3.3
2006_3.2*

* March quarter only.
…so I can’t really help!

Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by gmh454:
(usual decline occur when rates go up, rate rises so far have not reached rates of a few years ago) A good point here gmh… interest rates are still low by historical standards.

This is why I have a ‘bit of a cack’ when people tell me that over the ‘long term’ house prices always double every 7-10 years. “What’s long…[Read more]

6.3m2? That’s about an afternoon’s work, tea-break and tile-cutting included! Give it a shot. Hint: get yourself a 4″ angle grinder and a diamond cutting blade.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by The Mint Man:
Would really like you to comment on these.
Do you think the market is going to crash further? would it be a better idea to put money into super?In regards to the residential real estate market, generally speaking, yes* and yes*. Especially with the now added bonus of zero tax on monies out of super during…[Read more]

Sounds standard. Also normally have to notify them if you intend to rent it, if you’ve had any ‘clean up’ order or other violation of council laws, if you want to sell it etc. Which is fair enough, as it is in fact their house right up to the point where you’ve paid off the last cent.
Check the fine print on your mortgage contract.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Sure, here comes an interest rate related misery story. This was related to me over lunch yesterday, and I’ve embellished it only with interest rates and repayment approximations. The rest is as was. It happened to the brother of a close friend ([rolleyesanim] yeah, I know). She was amazed how trapped he had become…

2BR townhouse purchased,…[Read more]

Just to clarify, my question was directed to air_nitta, not wealth4life. air_nitta works in real estate, and appeared to be giving dodgy investment advice to his/her clients.
I actually agree that 6 fully-owned average 3 bedroom houses in decent suburbs near a capital city should provide a fairly comfortable standard of living in retirement… but…[Read more]

Originally posted by air_nitta:
We tell our clients everyday, all you need is 6 properties in 10 years and you can retire with more money than you will ever need. Its that simple, but they say “no, i cant afford to invest”. You cant afford not to, its that simple.
Welcome to the forum. My question may seem a bit harsh to a newcomer, but I’ll push…[Read more]

Originally posted by Interceptor:
I started reading his books a few years ago. I think he has a lot of positive things to say
Kiyosaki fans need to be aware (yet few appear to be) that his more recent statements include:
I just wanted you to know that I am currently preparing for a crash, an economic recession, and possible global depression. Why?…[Read more]

Originally posted by asdf:
Its a tough one indeed. Should commodity prices take more of a freefall and oil follows, the logical step is for easing of monetary cycle as inflationary pressures will be alleviated.
Agreed in part, but I don’t see any direct link between metals & oil. Nor do I see a direct link between metals and staples, which are…[Read more]