Forum Replies Created
- SHales wrote:doubledown trent wrote:I'm just pointing to the scoreboard.
Hope you like egg…..
Currently at 3615, up for a 5th consecutive day, 3rd week in a row of gains.
Have we seen the bottom? I wouldn't know, and I won't bore you all with a baseless prediction. I'm just pointing to the scoreboard.
Here is the whole quote, not just a selection. I'm not predicting anything, I'm just saying that since HB told everyone to 'sell sell sell', the market is up 200 points. I'm not sure which way it will go from here. My point is, neither does HB.
hbbehrendorff wrote:ASX Currently trading at 3451.9Don't listen to the "experts" this is not the bottom, They where wrong in the past, and they are wrong now…
Take this opportunity to get out of the market while you can, It may be your last chance, No one knows how many more rally's we will have in this bull market, And the fundamentals are all wrong.
Sell now, Don't wait until the market violently drops again and then use that as an excuse for not selling, Take action now.
Currently at 3615, up for a 5th consecutive day, 3rd week in a row of gains.
Have we seen the bottom? I wouldn't know, and I won't bore you all with a baseless prediction. I'm just pointing to the scoreboard.
SHales wrote:It is good for us all to have our thoughts and opinions challenged, debate refines our thinking, and often adds to our education. Most of us have a fairly elastic approach to learning which allows us to take on information from other sources which meet our personal criteria so far as credibility is concerned, while rejecting information which does not come from a credible source. This allows those of us with good judgement (time will tell if I am one of them) to assimilate a large amount of quality information from a range of sources over a short period of time. Those with extremist thoughts are a danger to people who don't have much ability to pick between credible sources of information and a whole load of clap trap peddled by someone who may be articulate, yet relatively uneducated and certainly overly subjective in their views. People with extreme thoughts are also a danger to themselves in that their extreme views often prevent them from identifying other credible information which challenges and refines their own thinking, so they never learn anything new unless it is from a source which fits in with their own beliefs, thus reinforcing their thinking further.
I wholeheartedly agree.
SHales wrote:doubledown trent wrote:WJ Hooker wrote:dan1114,
Its a forum, we are here to give our optinions and try to help others. If we are correct then that's great, if we are wrong , then you can tell us about it, hbbehrendoff must be congradulated for making a brave call, he maybe wrong, but that's fine. At least he is giving reasons for his call, he may save people lots of money ?Or he could cost them a lot of money if he is wrong. The truth is, HB is making an educated guess, like everyone else. I know he has been right in the past, (he keeps mentioning his correct predictions ad nauseum), but he can't KNOW for sure and certain what will happen in the future.
It's the absoluteness of his pontifications that annoys people. It's just his opinion, that's all.
Don't be so tetchy. All any of us have to offer on this forum, re the future, is our opinion. Some people are more confident than others about their information, and their ability to predict things accurately. Are you jealous? If someone is relying upon the opinion of an anonymous internet identity without carrying out their own investigations and research from more authoritative sources, then it is only a matter of time before they listen to the wrong person and loose money. And sure, HB can be a little absolute in his opinions. Do you remember the confidence, the arrogance and the blissful self assurity of early adulthood before you've made any real mistakes or copped any big hits, personally, financially, emotionally? He'll mellow with age and experience. Leave him be.
SI think people who are so absolute in their opinions are dangerous, and should be challenged on their thoughts and opinions. Just because you say something with authority does not mean it's correct, or should be taken as gospel. It's just something that really gets under my skin.
"A little absolute in his opinions"? That's like saying Cyclone Tracey was "a little windy".
And I agree, people who make investment decisions on the basis of a rant from an anonymous know-it-all on the internet are idiots.
hbbehrendorff wrote:https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/value-adding/4326588?
"I don't think the property markets will suddenly drop down 40%+ next year, But overall if there's less then a 10% drop in 2009 then I will be very surprised. A few years of -10% adds up very quickly."
mmmhmmm ? Now lucky I can remember things I say in the past…
I do remember one thing I was wrong about though, I said gold would be probably trading at $1500 around aprilish… It looks like im going to be wrong about that… But then, I did not know about all of the Government "stimulus" plans to falsely bolster up the economy for the short term… Though gold has been hitting record high's all the same… I am changing my strategy slightly though… (Sidestepping from gold to silver, You can read my silver posts somewhere…)
As I have said before, Its very difficult to predict the short term future because of unforeseen events takeing place, But predicting long term trends is easy, Which form the bulk of my predictions…
Firstly, your quote mentions 2009, not 2008.
Here's the data from APM regarding changes in property prices for 2008, Houses first, then Units
Sydney down 4.2% down 3.8%
Melbourne up 0.9% down 1.5%
Brisbane up 0.4% down 6.5%
Perth down 7.9% down 4.7%
Adelaide up 2.9% up 2.7%
Hobart down 0.4% down 7.1%
Darwin up 5.5% up 20.5%
Canberra down 6.7% down 2.6%WJ Hooker wrote:dan1114,
Its a forum, we are here to give our optinions and try to help others. If we are correct then that's great, if we are wrong , then you can tell us about it, hbbehrendoff must be congradulated for making a brave call, he maybe wrong, but that's fine. At least he is giving reasons for his call, he may save people lots of money ?Or he could cost them a lot of money if he is wrong. The truth is, HB is making an educated guess, like everyone else. I know he has been right in the past, (he keeps mentioning his correct predictions ad nauseum), but he can't KNOW for sure and certain what will happen in the future.
It's the absoluteness of his pontifications that annoys people. It's just his opinion, that's all.
hbbehrendorff wrote:I got my Crystal Ball from a packet of Kellogs corn flakes, So far my crystal ball has out predicted the ones the experts have.Also, If people listened to me over a year ago, There super would be up 30%, Not down 50% in the stock market.
I also said property would fall at least 10% last year, While the experts said it would not, In fact many where screaming at you telling you to buy before the next big boom and you could not afford to get into the market anymore…. (now that's what I call fear mongering)
ohh yeh, I almost forgot, property fell 8% last year… and thats even with the government manipulation (first home buyers grant 21k)
I have to ask the self-proclaimed expert, can you point me to the post where you said property would drop by 10%? I can see a lot of posts mentioning 50%…
From the RBA website, "Inflation is a measure of the change (increase) in the general level of prices." I agree it's not caused by rising prices, but it's the measure of rising prices.
The influx of $52b, taken on it's own would be inflationary, but this ignores all the other factors at play in the economy at the moment. The tightening of credit, people losing their jobs and refusing to spend are factors which mitigate somewhat the influx of all this cash.
I just can't see hyper inflation happening in Australia. Of course, that must mean I'm an idiot. I couldn't possibly have a different opinion than you and be a sane rational human being.
By the definition you linked to, hyperinflation is a "cumulative inflation rate over 3 years of 100%". The current inflation rate is less than 3%, and dropping. I looked at all the countries who have suffered hyperinflation on that list. There were a lot of Eastern European countries suffering after the two world wars, and a lot of tinpot dictatorships. I didn't see too many world powers.And by the way, congratulations for using an apostrophe correctly. Baby steps…
I absolutely agree that the troops on the front lines need the best gear. My issue is with the big ticket stuff, like planes and submarines. Do we really need these at the moment? Didn't Brendon Nelson (as Defence Minister) by a heap of planes a few years ago?
The problem with conscription is it lumps all young people in the same basket. I know that commercial news services and the Murdoch press would like us to believe that all young people are bone lazy drug addicts, but the truth is a million miles away from that. Also, in a country with a shortage of skilled tradesmen, doctors, nurses etc, we would be better off creating more places at uni and more apprenticeships. I believe this would serve the country better in the long run than shipping everyone off to the military for a year.
Here's my two cents, for what it';s worth.
1. Totally agree with scrapping state governments. We are over regulated, and to remove a layer of government would be a great idea, saving money and freeing people from red tape.
2. Cut a raft of state govt taxes, such as all stamp duties, payroll tax, etc.
2. As Shales said, tax the family as a group.
3. Increase the tax free threshold, making it more beneficial for people to get back into the workforce.
4. Cut all the Howard middle class welfare bribes. The Mature Age Workers Offset is a disgrace. Get rid of it.
5. Conscription will NEVER happen. In fact, i'd cut a percentage of defence spending, no more $10m planes or submarines. Let's do with what we have, for a while anyway.
6. Cut the number of senators from 12 for each state to 6. This will cut down on costs, and reduce the likelihood of Senator X or Charlie Church getting enough votes.
hbbehrendorff wrote:I'm sorry that my quickly blotted out 1000 word thesis on very broad economic fundamentals contained some bad grammar, Obliviously I have been caught out for the fraud I am and no longer have any credibility
Because the truth is I failed every grade past the 7th and didn't even complete year 11, Also English and Art where always my worst two subjects, I could never quite grasp them with adeptness others could…. wow, If you could only see me attempt to draw a stick man, Then that really would prove me to be wrong about my economic theory's
Perhaps you could write your own 1000 word opinion ?…
See, I have pondered writing much longer and in depth post, But it would probably reach 5000+ words and I would be ridiculed for a few grammar mistakes so there is no point…
Wow, I've obviously touched a nerve there (or is it their?!). You're overreaction amuses me.
The bad grammar makes me wonder what your background is, and where you have picked up all this economic wisdom you are so keen to share with the rest of the forum. It does damage your credibility, whether you like it or not.
As for me posting my own 1000 word opinion, I wouldn't be so presumptuous to believe (as you clearly do) that the world longs to hear my opinions on economic theory, on a property forum.
And by the way, it's 'theories', not 'theory's'.
From The Age
The number of new homes built in Victoria is expected to rise next year, reflecting the lower interest rates and the effect of two Federal Government stimulus packages on the industry, a report said today.
The construction of new homes in the State is expected to jump 9% in 2009-10 to a total of 41,863 from 38,263 forecasted for 2008-09, according to the Housing Industry Association State and National Outlook, released today.
A shortage of homes in Victoria highlights the State Government's need to fast-track building projects and release land for development quickly, said HIA's acting Victorian executive director Robert Harding.
Despite the expectation of a lift in construction in 2008-09, the number of new homes is still expected to mark a decline 8% over the previous year, the association said.
Lower levels of building reflect the tight lending requirements and high interest rates of earlier last year. The dip in construction will leave a short fall of 7000 homes in 2008-09.
Nationally, housing construction is expected to stage a "moderate" recovery next year, the report said.
The number of new homes built is expected to jump 13% in 2009-10, to 149,100, from 132,000 in 2009-09, according to the Housing Industry Association. That would be a turnaround from the expected 17% fall in the current year.
"The First Home Owners Boost, mortgage rates at a forty year low, and the housing components of the Federal Government's Nation Building and Jobs Plan have the capacity to deliver a moderate recovery in residential activity," said HIA chief economist Harley Dale in a statement.
Since October, the Government has announced two major stimulus packages worth a combined $52.4 billion, aimed in large part at pump-priming the housing and lending sectors. At the same time, the Reserve Bank has lopped 4 percentage points from the interest rate since September, bringing it to 3.25%, the lowest since 1964.
By 2010-11, the HIA sees housing starts rising another 6%, to 158,100.
The Government is anxious to keep the housing and mortgage markets active through the global slowdown, because they account for such a large part of domestic economic activity.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the stimulus plans, which include a boost to the first time home buyer's bonus, are gaining traction.
Victorian housing developers such as Stockland, Mirvac, and Australand have noted an upswing in sales to first-home buyers, even as their first-half results slump.
Before the financial crisis accelerated in the second half of last year, the Government had hoped for more home construction to meet the shortfall created in part by growing immigration.
Today, Immigration Minister Chris Evans said the nation will slow its intake of skilled migrants in response to the weakening economy which is producing fewer jobs.
The numbers, released by HIA before the announcement from Mr Evans, showed underlying demand for 2009-10 is expected to be 193,700, far beyond the expected level of home starts. In 2008-09, there is a projected need of 190,500 homes in the country. And in 2010-11, HIA sees the underlying demand rising to 197,000.
hbbehrendorff wrote:I also need to very quickly address the few comments made for stimulus, Money borrowed in the private sector is totally different to money borrowed by government, The difference is that in the private sector the borrower takes the risks of failure and therefore will be sold up to repay his debts shall something go wrong.Whereby the government does not take this risk and therefore should not be allowed this privilege. Not only that but if you took note to my previous passages you will understand how governments are negative productive entities and therefore cannot INCREASE there profits because they make none, Also they cannot increase productivity, Its impossible, You can't do things the opposite way around and except the results, Even IF the very little money spent on useful infrastructure increases some private sector productivity some way, The fruits of that where already gone before it happened.
Are you suggesting governments shouldn't borrow? How do they fund schools, hospitals, roads, etc when the economic cycle is at it's lowest ebb? In this current downward turn of the economy, revenue is predicted to be down by something like $115b. If govts shut down spending, unemployment would skyrocket, further driving down govt revenues, creating a viciuos cycle of unemployment and contraction of GDP.
Infrastructure spending, if done properly, (and granted, its a big if) stimulates the economy, creates jobs and revenues for government. The WORST thing for a government to do at the moment would be to stop all infrastructure spending.
I don't want to be the grammar police here, but….
If you don't know the difference between LOOSE and LOSE,
If you don't know the difference between THEIR and THERE,
and you don't know how to use an apostrophe correctly,why would we trust any of your ironclad predictions on the economy??
