Mate i'm looking at the cycle for my little suburb of 7,000 houses in Australia graphed on my wall for the last 14 years, I hope you don't mind if on that basis that I'm ready to buy and buy and hold.
Are you any good at picking the next boom, can you tell me which suburbs are going to double in value in 2 years like they did in Perth. I might move on then.
lol hello>>reality is calling, can anyone say 'commodity boom'?? WIthout it you would be scr$wed. Also basing your whole belief on 14 years is hardley indicative research-thats like saying because BHP has gone up 1000% in the last 14 years it will go up another 1000% in the next 14 years. Try looking at the real situation-MASSIVE debt and now way out. Its coming, oh yes itscoming…ignore at your own peril.
"Australia doesn't have a shortage : it's got a massive oversupply."
Absolute and utter garbage!
lol y areckon?? Just wait till the reality bites and a few properties hit the markets. You comment is shortsighted-the fact that there are so many 'armchair expert' property investors attests to the over supply of housing, just wait till they have to selll to see how the supply/demand eqaution works out…
The risks are huge, and will soon become more than clear to a lot of households when their lowest-ever 5-year-fixed mortgages will go up from 6% to 10% interest rates this september 2008. This huge increase results in average monthly mortgage repayments increasing from 850$ to 2650$.
In september 2008 : 1.000.000 households will be in severe trouble. And this is just the start.
Be prepared and be afraid , this crash will dwarf the 1929 crash.
Agree 100000% mate!!! This post is going into the 'I told you so' file to be brought out in a year or two. Funny how greed and ignorance can blind people to the real story. Your point about people coming out of fixed rate mortgages is what Ive been saying ofr ages-no body listens. Thats o.k, the less they listen the more it will crash and the better value I will be able to buy:)
Been living in a cave for long? lol try the 11th of september…Im not to sure of the facts, there wasnt really much media cover but Im pretty sure there were a couple of plane crashes or something and maybe a building collapse or two?
"Another free tip : the real value of your house is what you can sell it for : Not what banks tell you. If a fool buys it for 500.000, then it does NOT mean it's 'worth' 500.000. It just means it's worth whatever the NEXT fool will give you for the house ( that might be 1.000.000 or 200.000 ). Seeing that fools are running low on money, you can bet that property prices aren't going up , but down. "
Finally someone with some common sense!!! You would be AMAZED how many people fail to grasp this simple concept-YOU HOUSE IS ONLY WORTH WHAT THE MARKET WILL PAY!!!!!
I tend to agree as my previous posts would attest. Just wayyyyyy to much debt and whilst it is fine and dandy while we are in the biggest boom ever, the coresponding recession (hazzrard to say depression) is just around the corner. As property 'investors' we should all heed such warnings and make informed, calculated purchases-not just buy for the sake of it. If property prices could drop by even a conservative 15% in two years then that is still $68k you have saved on an average house by waiting. Of course there will be opposing views and hence what is great about this forum-it allows all sides to be seen. So to say coming here indicates you are not smart enough is a bit silly. Some verrrrry smart posters here matey!!!
Best way to start would be a forum for the stockmarket called http://www.hotcopper.com.au, much like this one. Tons and tons of very knowledgable people. The onlything you need to watch out for is posters there may not always be posting with you best interests at heart i.e if they have bought a stock and want the S.P to go up they may post overly favourly for it which is called 'ramping'. The opposite also occurs with people wanting to drive the price down who will try to create doubt in the minds of investors and spook them into selling so they can buy in cheaper. You will soon be able to pick your way through the rubbish and get a feel for what is real or not. That asside many posters generously provide an extriadinary amount of research they have conducted-so you best bet is to research the companies as much as possible, get a feel for what the market is doing and then make a 'informed' judgement.
As for making a consistant $250 a week. Well like anything in life there are no garauntees-if you could make $250 a week by the same token you could also make $250,000 a week. While trading is fun (and stressful at times lol) research has shown buy and hold normally have better returns than traders. So for someone starting off I would suggest doing some reading and picking a stock that you are happy to hold for at least a few months, if not at least a year or two. WIth many stocks that have high volume trading it is quite easy to make 5-10% in a day, the trouble is picking when to get out, as it is also just as easy to loose 5-10% in a day. For that reason only invest what you have i.e dont buy shares with money you dont have-becasue uf the S.P drops you want to be able to have the option of holding and waiting for it to pick back up rather than being forced to sell at a loss (I learnt that one early…)
As for what stocks to look at, well at the moment the agriculture sector is very hot. The world is getting more and more populated and you have probably seen many reports on present and looming food shortages. In addition we have places like India and China who are becoming more affulent and changing their diets to a more wesstern one of grains and meat. Also the U.S has a big push for bio fuels made from corn etc. As a result agriculture is set to explode and in turn all assosciated inputs and outputs.
All these factors point towards phosphate prices seeing continued high prices as they are rerquired for high yeild crops. There is a shortage of phosphate at the moment, China have put a 130% tariff on all phos exports to try to hold their reserves etc. My personal fav is MAK, who are sitting on a large phospahte deposit in the N.T, and by all acoounts should be trading at between $20-$40 a year when they commence exporting in 2010. At the moment they are around $2.35, up from around 35 cents a few months ago. Please do you own research though-MAK is obviously my fav, but as with all things nothing is garuanteed.
If you are a more conservative, risk averse investor obviously the blue chips would be the go. After copping such a hiding in recent months many analysts feel they would be good buying even if they could drop a little more potentialy, in the long run they will be fine.
Hope I helped a little-any more questions feel free to ask
Seems pretty straight forward, all you need to do is get prices for demolition and removal of scrap, quotes for a new house and then compare costs with what you think you will be able to sell it for………you will either be loking at a profit or loss, weigh up if the possible profit is worth the percieved risk-simple.
If the suburb you are looking at doesnt have a lot of sales would this indicate you will have trouble selling also?
Thanks for the link, albeit a breif one. Dont really understand the point of it though-the fact that a handfull of locations have increased in prices means nothing. It would be like saying althought the stock market has crashed some stocks have gone up-no relevance, unless of course you are skilled enough to pick the rising stocks or in this case rising locations.
[ While you "enjoy" waiting for the courage to actually buy a property over the next year or two we will enjoy your attempt as using the English language.
Bwahahahaahah love it!!! Thanks for the laugh einstien, just a little tip for ya-if you are gunna try to insult someone about their "attempt AS using the english language" at least try to get it right yourself. You mean attempt AT using the english language? bwhahahahf unny stuff…..
As for having the courage to buy a property-I have plenty thanks, though only a fool would buy property at the moment when all indications say prices are guna come down. But hey you were probably one of the 'smart ones' who have boght lately and are now looking at a 10% decrease in your propert value?
It business mate-the name of the game is to make money-not to buy property just for the sake of being able to say Ive got x amount of properties…
"or will they be the same people who wait too long and miss the boat."
Jon I think we have a loooooong time to go before we run the risk of missing the boat lol. Do some reading mate-just the tip of the ice berg at the mo. What do they say about those who fail to learn from history are bound to repeat its mistakes?
lol your basing your investment descisions and your families future on what some anomonous posters on the web say? Dude seriously, unless this is a joke-get some PROFESSIONAL advice….
I agree Mark, Blogs no offence but you seem to be constantly posting media quotes and negative sentitment.
No offense taken mate All Im trying to do is make sure people are aware off all the information-both sides. After all, we are all here to make a quid and if we can save an extra 5% by taking note of the broader market, economics and changing market sentiment it empowers our position as investors. Why stick your head in the sand?
See 4 corners last night? A perfect example of the mentality of so many people who have bought in the current realestate market. The owner, being forced to sell due to being too far in debt was absolutely AMAZED that she couldnt get what she paid for her $650k house, sniping 'what do they want it for? 50 cents?" She couldnt fathom that property prices dont just always go up and I think it got passed in for around $600k?