Commercial Real Estate in the USA

And the bargain bin state is……… yep. Florida!!

Don’t worry freckle good ol America will bounce back, even harder then before!

I know.

Hate to shatter the illusion Joe but we haven't had the crash yet. 08GFC was just the first signs the system was breaking. We've done nothing to rectify the causes of that event. On the contrary. Things are now much more fragile and the correction when it comes will be many times more severe. If anything all 08 did was ever so slightly uncover the political, corporate and criminal fraud within the system. As we progress down the timeline more and more of this fraud is being exposed but with a political class entwined in the fraud nothing is improving. If anything it's getting worse. 

Europe sinks further into the mire month by month. The US pumps US$'s into Europe's banks trying to keep it afloat because it knows when Europe goes the US will follow shortly after. China's fiscal position is a catch 22 for them. They're only holding on by printing as fast as the US and pouring that into malinvestment that is dragging it under as well. It's QE programs are a zero sum game that will pull us into the mire as well. Japan has just got the green light from the G20 to print to infinity. 

We're in a full blown currency war as global economics conditions fail time and again to react to more QE. There is no escape now. It's just a matter of time. 

When things finally do go pear shaped for real there'll be no recovery in 15 years. I doubt the world will see a recovery in my sons (30 & 27) lifetimes let alone mine. Over the next 50 years we have to deal with population growth, food production, energy shortages and global climate distress. Even healthy economies would struggle to deal with these events individually but a distressed global economy is somehow expected to mitigate these events as if they're manageable. 

This year could see the first time ever we have no Arctic ice. It takes 1 calorie of energy to melt 1ml of ice. That same cal will raise 1 ml of water 80F. The amount of heat energy that is likely to be absorbed from the loss of snow covering is said to be of real concern. Historically 83% of global climate predictions have underestimated the outcomes. A developing consensus amongst some serious researchers is that  a 2degC is now backed in. If we stopped all industrial activity today we couldn't prevent that 2degC rise. They are now talking of a NTE. Near Term Extinction

Since 1840 the sea has lost an estimated 90% of fish stocks and is expected to collapse by 2050. 

Civilisations have spent the last 4000 years consuming the planet. None more so than recent western civilisations. We can't survive without killing our planet. It's that simple. We are nearing the end now of this earths ability to sustain a growing global population. 

The economic reset is one of many that will occur over the next 50 years. The worst will be the population reset. The most pessimistic research that this could occur within 30 years but almost certainly within 100 years. 

The only good news is that the northern hemisphere is likely to take the brunt of global warming weather events.

I'm shocked!!.

Not to worry Nigel it's unlikely you'll see it coming.

Wrong end of the stick as usual. 08 was simply the early phase of the end of this current super cycle. QE initially arrested the descent and afforded limited stability to an abused economic system. QE is a like a blood transfusion. It can give you time to fix the problem but you have to actually fix it not fudge it. QE becomes less effective each time as the patient weakens. There have been many resets in the past. This is no different except that its taking longer and will be far more disruptive and painful than on previous occasions'. Food, water, population, energy and global warming will continue to complicate things and make sustained recovery difficult if not impossible.

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Markets may recover but not in my lifetime. And its really simple stuff to understand if you want to.

Populations are growing exponentially..

Energy demand grows along with it… the cost will be crippling financially and devastating from an environmental perspective.

We will need 50% more fresh water by 2050

China, with 1.26 billion people, is "the one area worrying most people most of the time," says Marq de Villiers, author of the recently published "Water " (see bibliography). In dry Northern China, he says, "the water table is dropping one meter per year due to overpumping, and the Chinese admit that 300 cities are running short. They are diverting water from agriculture and farmers are going out of business." Some Chinese rivers are so polluted with heavy metals that they can't be used for irrigation, he adds.

Energy and food costs will cripple poorer economies and constrain modern economies.

This is superficial information. Anyone who wants to can join the dots. It's easy to do hard to execute because most people want to stay ignorant of anything negative that may affect their blinkered lives. If I don't see it it can't hurt me mentality. 

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!   I love this!!!!!

John here's a little tip for you. One off projects aren't much use to anyone. The Exxon project is what 2 years? Then what?

But lets put Exxons project in perspective. There are no new jobs. The project is a consolidation of several sites that are past there use by date and the importing of 2000 personal from Fairfax, Va. The new locale is simply a new beaut region that will siphon people away from older decaying locations. One wins while another looses.

Find something that gives us an idea of say a construction industry project pipeline for the next 5 years. How that would create/support a sustainable construction industry etc. 

If I was to even consider Texas CRE this trend concerns me.

Texas growth appears to me as an MSM created illusion. Texas is a lifeboat for a failing US economy. The apparent growth obscures a failing internal manufacturing/commercial economy.

Dad cat bounce sounds like a stock. I like  fibonnaci rules. The Florida market is always number one for foreign investors.

Anyways, I'd like to see Freckles numbers on large metros and malls. All I see when visiting major metros like L.A. are construction and building up since there is no more space to expand. Even in cities 40 miles out, the malls are expanding. I think it depends on the area where expansion (or gentrification) is occurring. Price per sq ft is going up everywhere I can see so I'd lean towards an improving economy and cost cutting by the major tenants closing down stores.

One thing I do know though is prices cannot continue to go up when interest rates start to rise which is imminent. If the FED believes in the gloom and doom, then we are in luck to fetch a property with low rates and better COC returns.