All Topics / Help Needed! / reading the market

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  • Profile photo of DOUGADCOCKDOUGADCOCK
    Participant
    @dougadcock
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 22

    Everyone you talk to or every book you read talks about buying at the bottom of the market but how does one know when it is the bottom of the market, is there any books i can read or articles. Any guidance would be helpfull 

    Profile photo of ChrisA1ChrisA1
    Participant
    @chrisa1
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 172

    Hi Doug

    Are you asking about books/guidance about if we are currently at the bottom of the market, or property investment strategies in general??

    ChrisA1

    Persistence is 'to keep on keeping on, no matter how hard the going may be'

    Profile photo of DOUGADCOCKDOUGADCOCK
    Participant
    @dougadcock
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 22

    hi chris

    i would like to learn how to read the market so i know when the area is at the bottom of the cycle. 

    Profile photo of ChrisA1ChrisA1
    Participant
    @chrisa1
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 172

    mmmm, bit out of my league…. you might be looking for the next boom town??

    John Lindeman is a market researcher. His book – http://www.propertybooks.com.au/mastering_the_australian_housing_market might give you some insight??

    Crystal ball??

    ChrisA1

    Persistence is 'to keep on keeping on, no matter how hard the going may be'

    Profile photo of DerekDerek
    Member
    @derek
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 3,544

    Hi Doug,

    Buying at the bottom of the market is a nice theory and it is relatively easy to say. The trouble is the bottom and top of a market are only really revealed after the event when statistics can be analysed in some detail. Sure there are some 'experts'' who claim that they can tell where the market is at any given time – trouble is seen their commentary wrong as often as I have seen it right. No-one rings a bell for the investors.

    If you are looking at a shorter term buy and sell strategy then getting your timing more right, than wrong, is important. If you are looking at strategy that transcends more than one cycle then the issue of timing becomes less important.

    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
    Participant
    @jpcashflow
    Join Date: 2007
    Post Count: 575

    Freckle makes a good point reading the market from reading or taking classes won't help

    its an art that must be learnt with time and practice 

    i have bought three different properties in two different cycles and still did ok with all three purchases 

    i sold two at the end of the boom but are you looking at a particular area?

    Go to as many open homes and you feel how he market is traveling 

    even though I'm not looking at buying I still go to opens in Vic and I have notices it has been pretty quiet out there 

    prices are steel pretty flat and wouldn't be surprised if pricesfall lower 

    mite also interesting allot of people are loosing here jobs in Vic 

    Its going to be a very interesting couple of years 

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
    http://www.jpfinancialgroup.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Your first port of call in finance :)

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    You have many different markets (and segments)

    global

    national

    regional/state

    city

    towns

    suburb

    rural

    urban

    economic base (manufacturing, services etc)

    affluent

    middle class

    working class

    state dependent

    ethnic

    house

    unit

    gated

    attached

    detached

    and so it goes. There is no magic formula and there are no books on how pick a given time in a cycle. It's a collection of knowledge and experience from a wide range of sources. Your basically looking for trends in your particular market segment in a wider context and trying to literally guess which way and by how much things will change over time. It's an art rather than a science that can't simply be learnt from a book

    Profile photo of Jamie MooreJamie Moore
    Participant
    @jamie-m
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 5,069

    Hi Doug

    Not sure if it helps or not but Herron Todd White provide a monthly update that covers capital city markets and many large regional markets. In the report, they rate where they see these markets at the stage of the property cycle.

    Page 45 of this report will give you an idea of what I'm taking about.

    Obviously this should only be treated as one resource which is part of a greater due diligence process.

    Cheers

    Jamie

    Jamie Moore | Pass Go Home Loans Pty Ltd
    http://www.passgo.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Mortgage Broker assisting clients Australia wide Email: [email protected]

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