All Topics / Help Needed! / the market cycle

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  • Profile photo of kriscotkriscot
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    @kriscot
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    thought i would open slather for everyone to voice their opinion about where they feel the property market cycle is at now. Im thinking we are sitting at a trough and it is a buyers market but who feels we have actually reached the lowest point in the cycle? (i know there are exceptions like perth but this is a generalised question for the market as a whole). How many investors out there are actually buying right now if they find the right property? How many are holding off for a while to see if prices drop even further? I am interested to get a feel of what other investors are doing at the moment.

    Profile photo of jjaausjjaaus
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    @jjaaus
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    Always looking looking looking, if the right property comes along and the numbers stack up, I would proceed. Utilise the current slump to negotiate a lower price.

    Cheers

    Jeff Aquilina

    Need a holiday? http://www.coralsearesort.com email [email protected]

    Profile photo of kriscotkriscot
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    thanx jjaaus, anyone else like to add some thoughts?

    Profile photo of DerekDerek
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    @derek
    Join Date: 2004
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    Hi Kriscot,

    Just getting valuations done and shoring up my position ready to purchase within two/three months.

    Derek
    [email protected]
    http://www.pis.theinvestorsclub.com.au
    0409 882 958

    Profile photo of k3ymakerk3ymaker
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    @k3ymaker
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    I am living in Perth using the FHOG and I am finding it very difficult to compete. I have been looking for about 6 months now and we just have too much buyers with not enough homes to buy.

    Some homes are just too over valued with the sellers taking advantage.

    I have look at homes that no one wants and try to get a bargin there.

    Hong Tran

    Profile photo of MichaelYardneyMichaelYardney
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    @michaelyardney
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    Post Count: 616

    Our research shows that markets have bottomed in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (this doesn’t mean we in the next boom yet!)

    I am actively buying for myself – have for 6 months- and very strongly for clients.

    If you can buy “good” property below market price, add value and have a medium to long term perspective, it doesn’t really matter how long we bounce along the bottom. You are creating your own opportunities for capital growth.
    Michael Yardney
    METROPOLE PROPERTIES
    Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
    Join over 10,000 readers each month.
    FREE subscription http://www.PropertyUpdate.com.au

    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    @nigel-kibel
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    I could not agree with Michael more. It amazes me that people buy when the market is booming and yet when the market levels or drops every one stops buying. If there is another boom by the end of the decade even if it is not as big as the one we have just had, it makes since to buy now and you will reap the benefits when the next boom happens. The great American industrist John Getty once said that he buys when everyone else is selling.

    Nigel Kibel

    http://www.propertyknowhow.com.au

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    Profile photo of Beth_AshtonBeth_Ashton
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    @beth_ashton
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    Especially because the market has slowed over Christmas and we have begun a new year, I find that vendors are more open to negotiation… I have a property on the market myself and would love to have this sold so I can start the year (afresh) with some Capital Gains and know what I can invest next…
    So generally, I think this is a perfect time for buyers!

    Market trends in my area have stabalised – being Williamstown VIC

    If you would like to investigate the Western Subs of Melb, feel free to visit our website http://www.comptongreen.com.au

    Regards,

    Beth MacLeod

    Profile photo of wealth4life.comwealth4life.com
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    @wealth4life.com
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    I believe that investment cycles in real estate can b compared to other areas of investing as well.

    In the stock or share markets we see people making profits in up cycles – side ways cycles and downward cycles.

    Many big developers are nervous in upward trends because they know there will always b a correction – the question is when. Its easy to predict the past but harder to predict the future.

    However – with study u will see people making profits in a variety of areas – developing, renovating, trading, cosmetic renovations, DA approvals and onselling, simulatenous settlements, rezoning, duplexes, town house sites, flicks etc etc

    The truth is all markets change what ever business you are in and nothing is certain, wars, interest rates and many other out side influences will effect our investments.

    At the end of the day when we retire we can only hope that our investment out come has lead us to a dignified retirement – good luck to u all.

    resiwealth

    Profile photo of redwingredwing
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    Doing the same as Derek, getting valuations done on IP’s as market is still rising here..I’ll then top up loans and then access the equity.

    One of the IPs has gone from $220k to $250k in last 4 months

    “Money is a currency, like electricity and it requires momentum to make it Effective”
    Count The Currency With This Online Positive Cashflow Calculator

    Profile photo of carlincarlin
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    @carlin
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    Redwing – Just wondering, as I’m still on L plates. I understand re-having IPs revalued to determine how much equity you have in them.

    But what do you mean when you say you’ll “top up loans and THEN access equity”?

    Also, I gather that you and Derek are in Perth, where the market’s still rising. Are you waiting for it to plateau before purchasing?

    thanks,
    Carlin

    Profile photo of asdfasdf
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    @asdf
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    Hey Carlin, I’m thinking Redwings saying the same thing. Accessing equity is through getting a Top-up on the existing loan/property.

    And it will be too late when you wait for the market to plateau. It could be 10-20% more than today. All the experts don’t think you’ll get the 20%+ returns again in WA in 06 but at least high single digits which is way better than negative or flat in Syd and Melb. Happy hunting!

    Profile photo of gmh454gmh454
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    @gmh454
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    Looking in Nth West Sydney for around 4 mths, and no sign of leveling here.

    Compare a 800k property 6 mths ago to current stock offered and you get a lot more for your buck. Whole new suburbs open up.

    Move up to 1M+ and the viewing gets even better.

    Am I buying sure, but not till I see em cry.

    Figure we have over a year to go.

    Profile photo of clonesclones
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    @clones
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    Hopefully you do not get into one of these developers:

    http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,17834502-462,00.html

    These are the first signs of the things to come, be careful, high returns, high risks, if you are comfortable with that??.

    Clones

    ************************
    The net result is not so much lies, damn lies and statistics but rather vendor dreaming, buyer wishing and agent glossing.

    Profile photo of InterceptorInterceptor
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    @interceptor
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    I have been looking at properties in the Brisbane market for the past 6-9 months. I can honestly say the market is over-priced.
    The boom we have experienced in the past 4-5 years will not come again for a considerable time: in fact it will get worse.
    Short-term property investors don’t need to worry until around 2010.
    (or just before), s[buz2]o do your business before this date and then move your wealth into gold.
    This is when the U.S. Economy may just collapse. If you carry a lot of debt around this time, or you have assets in just one area, namely the real estate investment sector, you will be in a lot of trouble.
    If you need further proof of the trouble the U.S. is in then do some research….and just remember that any country currently heavily invested in U.S. debt….(bonds) will also be bought down as well.
    Australia can’t rely on mineral exports forever! Be smart and look at the macro-economic situation……16 years of economic expansion is where the balloon is…..don’t wait for it to pop.

    Profile photo of kriscotkriscot
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    @kriscot
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    im not sure about buying now, everywhere i read it seems that the general feeling is that property prices still havent bottomed out and that it might be best to hold off for a few months

    Profile photo of NuggenNuggen
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    i have to agree, its definitely a buyer’s market. My local area (liverpool, NSW) there are about 10 properties on sale within 5 mins walking distance from my house.

    I’m only new to property investing, and wondering why are so many people are selling? are the markets going down? prices falling? whatever it is, i’ve must of missed it

    could someone inform me?

    thanks
    nuggen

    Profile photo of redwingredwing
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    @redwing
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    Originally posted by carlin:

    Redwing – Just wondering, as I’m still on L plates. I understand re-having IPs revalued to determine how much equity you have in them.

    But what do you mean when you say you’ll “top up loans and THEN access equity”?

    Also, I gather that you and Derek are in Perth, where the market’s still rising. Are you waiting for it to plateau before purchasing?

    thanks,
    Carlin

    Pretty much what asdf said..

    No not waiting for it to plateau..I’d buy another one now if I could afford the right one

    “Money is a currency, like electricity and it requires momentum to make it Effective”
    Count The Currency With This Online Positive Cashflow Calculator

    Profile photo of adambcadambc
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    @adambc
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 145

    Kriscot,

    Interesting post – thanks. Gives us all some food for thought.

    My opinion on PI is that if you purchase a good enough investment, and you’re buying for the +CF rather than the CG, then it really doesn’t matter too much where the market is or what it’s doing. Clearly if prices go up significantly you would consider your options regarding whether to sell and lock in profits, but if prices are stagnant it really doesn’t matter as long as the numbers work for the cashflow. And I guess you have to hope that you’ve done your homework enough such that the price of your property won’t drop too much even in a significant slump.

    My view is that CGs are a bonus and often based on things in the market that you have no influence on, but +CF comes down to your own homework. Find a good deal and you don’t have to worry too much about market movements.

    Thoughts?

    Regards,

    Adam

    Don’t let life get in the way of living.

    Profile photo of AmandaBSAmandaBS
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    @amandabs
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 549

    We’ve just recently signed up on two more ip’s in the Ipswich area in Qld. Still very good value and good capital growth with lots of business and govt development. Both after a quick reno will be cash flow neautral but have good capital gains projections.
    I think we’ll continue to see slow progressive growth in SE Qld over the next few years due to strong migration from interstate with a small “boom” around 2015 but them dropping off around 2020 with the baby boomers all ageing and selling of homes in droves.
    Well thats my opinion but only time will tell !!

    Amanda
    “It is better to be inconspicuously wealthy, than to be ostentatiously poor…”

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